will 4.0 succeed?

[jdrakeh]

Yes.

Yes, barring more economic fallout in the US -- let's face it, the market for luxury items of all kinds in the US is rapidly disappearing as we head toward deeper economic recession. This is a huge hurdle to overcome, currently, for any purveyor of luxury items. The good news is that recession also tends to correspond with spikes in escapist pursuits, so that may actually level the playing field where RPGs are concerned.

 

[Toric_Arthendain]

Yes - I think that 4E will finally push alot of the remaining 1E/2E player base into the present. I think it will have this effect as 4E will finaly push existing 1E/2E players to realise how complex and inconsistent the 1E/2E rule set is.

I have to respectfully disagree. I have run into more 1e/2e players in my FLGS in the past six months than I have in years. Many people are still playing these older editions and have no desire to quit or change. I seriously doubt that 4e will have the effect of causing players playing older editions to suddenly decide their current game needs conversion.

 

[JRRNeiklot]

I guess I'll play devil's advocate. No, 4e will not succeed in the long run. It may do very well for a few months, a year, but due to declining sales, we'll see 5e just before the Mayan apocalypse.

 

[Darrin Drader]

I guess I'll play devil's advocate. No, 4e will not succeed in the long run. It may do very well for a few months, a year, but due to declining sales, we'll see 5e just before the Mayan apocalypse.

You know, with the release of three core books and one new campaign setting every year, I would hope that they can sustain it for more than four years. If they can't even get that, I suspect that means that there won't be a 5E, at least not from WotC.

 

[Aus_Snow]

4e is far less likely to bring in old-school D&Ders than 3e was, and that's saying something.

Then of course there are all the 3e DMs and players, some of whom are not switching. Also, Pathfinder RPG from Paizo, now with the assistance of Monte Cook, looks to be a viable alternative to either one.

3e heralded unprecedented openness in more ways than one, down to the system level. 4e heralds. . . other things. Some folks will still appreciate the former, and all that it brought.

Even with all that in mind though, of course 4e will sell well enough. Not as well as 3e did, perhaps. Not as well as it might've if this and if that, but yeah, well enough. It's D&D, and it's the new shiny. Duh.

 

[HeavenShallBurn]

4e will succeed, just being a new edition of D&D is a guarantee of major sales.

Most current players will switch over to the new edition, 80-90% I'm guessing.
It will probably bring in some people who'd stopped playing during previous editions & the general influx any new edition brings in. On the other hand it's so different the likelihood of attracting holdouts from 2e or earlier is very low.
Will it draw in MMO and Video Game players? No, they've got their own industry and P&P RPGs don't really figure into their desires. You'll see very few go from video games to 4e who haven't played P&P RPGs before.

 

[Toric_Arthendain]

Most current players will switch over to the new edition, 80-90% I'm guessing.

Maybe...but I personally don't see that many people switching. That is 8 or 9 out of every 10 current players. From folks I have talked to in my local gaming circles, the divide is almost 50/50. I can see 50-60% of current players switching over.

When 3e was coming, my gaming group was resistant to switching. There was much grumbling about it but ultimately the switch was made. This time around, the general consensus from my gaming circle is "NO THANKS" and "WE DON'T WANT TO SWITCH".

The problem with estimating a higher number of people willing to make the switch is that if a group decides not to switch but one single player in that group wants to, the group still doesn't switch. That leaves the lone player who was interested in switching with either continuing to play what the rest of the group is playing or strike out on his own and find or form a new group.

 

[HeavenShallBurn]

My guess was based on how many stuck with 1e and 2e. But this time it could be higher. I'm not sure 50/50 split is a long term answer but I could be surprised. Probably you'll see about 50% initially switch, but then over the next several months most of the remaining group will switch leaving only die-hards that truly dislike 4e. Note I'm one of those anti-4e people who won't touch the new edition but that doesn't mean I'll dismiss the effect of an edition change.

 

[Zil]

Yes - I think that 4E will finally push alot of the remaining 1E/2E player base into the present. I think it will have this effect as 4E will finaly push existing 1E/2E players to realize how complex and inconsistent the 1E/2E rule set is.

I really can't see this. I just went through a few hours trying to help some old friends who last played only 1E up to 3E and they had problems with even little things like the ability scores being in a different order than in 1E. I just couldn't see convincing them to try something even farther removed from the 1st edition base they are familiar with. No, I suspect that most of the 1E/2E players out there will stay where they are because they are comfortable there. The people who will switch are more active players of the 3.x/OGL sphere who are keen to stay with the current version, no matter where it goes.

As for whether 4E will succeed, it all depends on how success is being measured. I'm pretty sure it will sell well enough early on when all those excited by it (or just curious) rush out and buy it, but deep down I don't think that it will sell as well in the long run when compared to 3E in terms of number of books. Will it be enough to keep Hasbro happy? We can't really say for sure because we don't know what type of returns on investment they are expecting or require. It'll be interesting to see if they can lure in the MMORPG crowd. I think that will be critical for them because in my gut I think the existing D&D space is going to be quite a bit more fractured with clusters playing 1E/2E or 3E/Pathfinder or 4E so they are probably going to need new blood to get the returns they are hoping for.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

I think it will succeed.

Whether it can bring in some "old-schoolers" and some video-gamers - maybe.

Nobody so far has considered the DDI and especially the Virtual Game Table. This is exactly the type of stuff that can attract people that used to play, and people that usually only play video-games.

Those that used to play now have a chance to find old and new friends online and play with them. Video-Gamers could use their existing clans and online friends to play D&D online. Scheduling times can be hard, but is a lot easier then finding friends in your local game area, and then schedule a time.

Off course, that assumes that the Game Table will be good and usable. I hope it will be, but some people have reasonable doubts on that. This is the stuff we can, at this point, not really judge at all, since all we have seen are some screenshots.