Will the RPG industry disappear by 2014?

[The Goblin King]

I am afraid I can not vote for you failed to provide the option "There will be no RPG industry as the world will end in December 2012." Sorry Akrasia but unless you can figure out how to open a rift in space-time the only people who will be playing D&D in 2014 is former Vice President Al Gore, Nichele Nichols, Steven Hawking, the chess playing computer Deep Blue, and of course, Gary Gygax.

 

[Ununnilium]

Some fads explode onto the scene in a burst of popularity, then fade away, their popularity dropping off more every year.

Some, on the other hand, have substance, and can survive and grow long after the faddishness has faded. D&D is one of the latter.

Andrew "NO .SIG MAN" "Juan" Perron, just because something isn't in the news every week...

 

[Sir Elton]

I am afraid I can not vote for you failed to provide the option "There will be no RPG industry as the world will end in December 2012." Sorry Akrasia but unless you can figure out how to open a rift in space-time the only people who will be playing D&D in 2014 is former Vice President Al Gore, Nichele Nichols, Steven Hawking, the chess playing computer Deep Blue, and of course, Gary Gygax.

Actually, 2012 is "The End of the World As We Know It."

 

[Allura]

I've been gaming since 1993, so over 11 years now. I've known about RPGs for longer than that, but just didn't have anyone close enough to play with. It doesn't feel that long. I can easily see myself still playing *something* 10 years from now.

But, the real question is the industry. I think we already see some tightening up and stabalization after the boom of products & companies shortly after D&D 3.0 came out. While this may stink for the companies that don't survive, I think it's made the industry more healthy in the long run. But look at some of the other long-running games like Shadowrun, GURPS, Rifts - they've been around for at least 10 years, and probably longer. There'd have to be some major change to force them all out of the market.

I don't think a lot has changed in the client base that would send the entire industry under. It's easy to think that all of us are al there are. But, frankly, a lot of the current gamers are having or have had kids. Those kids grow up immersed in RPGs to one extent or another. They're your future client base for the industry.

Computer games are a differnt niche, and I'm not sure how much overlap there is. I play a computer game when there's nothing better to do; I go out of my way to play a P&P RPG.

 

[Chaos Drake]

All I know is the MMORPG business will dwarf the RPG industry. Actually, does it already?

 

[Kalendraf]

A lot can happen in 10 years, but I suspect things will largely be about the same as they are today. It would require something else HUGE to displace it. At one time, a lot of folks predicted Magic was that next big thing that would displace it forever. Instead, Magic turned out to be just another game, finding its own niche. Others have predicted computer games or MMORPG's would do it. But those too have simply found their own audience. Meanwhile, the pencil and paper version continues to be played by gamers both old and new.

In 10 years, Certain players in the industry may come and go, and by then, there's no guarantee that Hasbro or WotC will even be in control of D&D. But I have no doubt that some form of D&D will still be played and material will still be produced for it.

 

[GoodKingJayIII]

No way. World's gonna end way before 2014.

 

[Schmoe]

If there are people playing RPGs there will be an industry around to make a buck off of it. Period.

Agreed 100%. Name me any activity that people do, and I will show you an industry around that activity.

 

[A'koss]

A'koss's Prediction of the RPG Industry - 2014.

By 2014 I predict there will be very little in the way of PnP RPGs.

What you'll see is a resurgence in virtual reality games and "VR-RPGs". I think monitors will begin to fall to the wayside of lightweight, high resolution video goggles, headphones and mic which will allow people to work in huge virtual workspaces. Imagine VR travel... Imagine 360 degree, realtime VR dungeons and monsters, networked with your friends and a DM who can coordinate the whole game from above. Imagine a VR-MMORPG with teeming cities and near-photorealistic graphics and motion.

2014 might be a little early for this though, but by 2020 I have no doubt that the transition will be complete.

Cheers,

A'koss.

 

[Wormwood]

The older I get, the faster I seem to experience the passage of time. At this rate, 2014 should be coming in about six months or so.

So I'll let you know.