D&D (2024) WotC is right to avoid the word "edition."

[Parmandur]

why is that the presumption (other then cause you say so, or it would hurt your argument if that wasn't true)

Because that's how statistical sampling works.

 

[Parmandur]

no it isn't

OK, thst was the argument I was engaged in. "What flies in AL" is a weird subset of the game, not the official or normal way that itn is played.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

Because that's how statistical sampling works.

no it isn't... again, if I take a poll of 5,000 people spread out over all 50 states (so 500 per state) with no more then 200 per mall... but my survey is outside of malls, and ask "Who do you think makes a better burger Mcdonalds, or Burger King" that would stand up to most review... it would not be perfect, you could argue the neighborhood of these malls, or the demographics (men/women race ect) but not that I sampled from everywhere...

now if I sample 5,000 people across 5 states all in big cities outside of Mcdonalds... even though it's still 5k people that is not even CLOSE to as accurate (although I bet BK still gets some small amount of votes)

OK, thst was the argument I was engaged in. "What flies in AL" is a weird subset of the game, not the official or normal way that itn is played.

except you included Cons, and homebrew store games and said that everyone that is in THOSE live environments are outliers without showing what makes them an outlier (Especially since you admitted to knowing groups that mix those that do and those that don't, so it should be easy to show what makes them different)

NOBODY gets to just wholesale exclude everyone at Cons, Stores, or AL games from all feed back... but you are trying to

 

[Parmandur]

no it isn't... again, if I take a poll of 5,000 people spread out over all 50 states (so 500 per state) with no more then 200 per mall... but my survey is outside of malls, and ask "Who do you think makes a better burger Mcdonalds, or Burger King" that would stand up to most review... it would not be perfect, you could argue the neighborhood of these malls, or the demographics (men/women race ect) but not that I sampled from everywhere...

now if I sample 5,000 people across 5 states all in big cities outside of Mcdonalds... even though it's still 5k people that is not even CLOSE to as accurate (although I bet BK still gets some small amount of votes)


except you included Cons, and homebrew store games and said that everyone that is in THOSE live environments are outliers without showing what makes them an outlier (Especially since you admitted to knowing groups that mix those that do and those that don't, so it should be easy to show what makes them different)

NOBODY gets to just wholesale exclude everyone at Cons, Stores, or AL games from all feed back... but you are trying to

Nobody is being "excluded," but most people who are playing are notnpkaying in those environments. That means they are exceprionw, not the rule.

It more like standing outside of McDonalds and king people coming outnifntheynprefer McDonalds or Burger King. A flawed sampbased on self-selection.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

Nobody is being "excluded," but most people who are playing are notnpkaying in those environments.

please stop pretending I said things I didn't
I NEVER!!!!! said that most people are playing in that environment.

is there one of those fancy bad faith argument things when someone changes what is being argued so they can be said to be right about something?

That means they are exceprionw, not the rule.

no it doesn't... nothing about playing in AL (or Cons or Store games that you seem to have dropped so do those count now?) make you diffrent. ESPECIALLY when you yourself know that some groups people DO play in both.

It more like standing outside of McDonalds and king people coming outnifntheynprefer McDonalds or Burger King. A flawed sampbased on self-selection.

no it isn't... my analogy fits pretty well... AL is in every state, as far as I know every state has at least 1 gaming store as well (although I wont say I know that for sure)

 

[billd91]

okay, but again, you can SHOW what the difference is. It isn't just "These people are abnormal cause I say so"

Nobody's saying "these people are abnormal". We're saying they may not be representative of the whole community and should not be considered representative of the whole community, at least not with great confidence.

if someone (anyone) can show a difference that we can test for (and plenty of us know both people that do and don't attend cons/organized play/store games) what we would expect to be different between the two, I will relent... but not "Trust me it's different"

and if you point out "Hey, most of those down votes are X Y Z people little to none of them are type A or type B or type C" then you have an argument... so far the argument is "I don't want to tell you the difference"

wait... no that's my argument, that HE is putting the burden of proof on the wrong side.

except that isn't what happened.. HE IS MAKING THE ASSERTION that they are not in fact representative... he is providing 0 evidence. just "Trust me they don't count"

why is that the presumption (other then cause you say so, or it would hurt your argument if that wasn't true)

Sample bias is a serious challenge in trying to make inferences about a broader population with high degrees of confidence. In the case of using the AL player population, there may be characteristics of that population distinct from the population you're excluding - the Non-AL players. They may be more inclined to play the game without a lot of house rules, with a broader mix of player types, in public spaces, with a full array of in-book options rather than curated subsets of the game, etc than the players who aren't participating in AL. And any of those could affect the results you'd see on a play test survey.

Think of the old, premature headline "Dewey Defeats Truman" in the 1948 election. The Chicago Tribune published that because it relied on a telephone survey to predict the results of the close election. But telephones in 1948 were still kind of a luxury and overrepresented people with wealth and stable addresses - people more likely to vote Republican than Democrat. Because that sample was biased, the Trib got the headline wrong, got egg on their face, and made for a fabulous photo op for Truman.

 

[Parmandur]

please stop pretending I said things I didn't
I NEVER!!!!! said that most people are playing in that environment.

is there one of those fancy bad faith argument things when someone changes what is being argued so they can be said to be right about something?

no it doesn't... nothing about playing in AL (or Cons or Store games that you seem to have dropped so do those count now?) make you diffrent. ESPECIALLY when you yourself know that some groups people DO play in both.

no it isn't... my analogy fits pretty well... AL is in every state, as far as I know every state has at least 1 gaming store as well (although I wont say I know that for sure)

So what, McDonalds is in every state, too. But you aren't likely to find hardcore Burger King affficiandos exiting McDonalds for the survey. That's the point, the sampling size is skewed and more importantly we don't know how thst effects the results. That's why the assumption is thst it is not representative.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

Nobody's saying "these people are abnormal". We're saying they may not be representative of the whole community and should not be considered representative of the whole community, at least not with great confidence.

here is what we have

a subset that pays for beyond (not the full amount cause again not incognizant number are just free trials)
a subset that plays in stores and cons
a subset that plays AL
a subset that answer surveys
a subset that post on here (or other social media)

and some of that is overlap (Me myself I am 4 of those 5)

and our own personal experience.

NOBODY, not even WotC has a perfect set of information... BUT they do have the people who pay for beyond, people who post on here/other social media, and those that play AL and the people who answer surveys... BUT they don't have some scientific study.

so discounting ANY of the samples for being not well rounded is to discount ALL of them... and then we are back to our own experience (that I am sure people will say doesn't count)

Sample bias is a serious challenge in trying to make inferences about a broader population with high degrees of confidence.

correct, but again, nobody here has BETTER information... so when you ask for 'high degrees of confidence' you are just saying "SHUT UP STOP TALKING" in a nicer way... we don't have ANY high degree of confidence in ANY of this.

In the case of using the AL player population, there may be characteristics of that population distinct from the population you're excluding - the Non-AL players.

okay so show that work... what is it?

They may be more inclined to play the game without a lot of house rules, with a broader mix of player types, in public spaces, with a full array of in-book options rather than curated subsets of the game, etc than the players who aren't participating in AL. And any of those could affect the results you'd see on a play test survey.

okay, and again this is disproved as soon as you say that they also play in home games...

Think of the old, premature headline "Dewey Defeats Truman" in the 1948 election.

so we are back to "nobody knows, so nobody can talk about it"

The Chicago Tribune published that because it relied on a telephone survey to predict the results of the close election.

intresting word there 'close race' there is a reason we have margins for error... but we have to stop this is 100% agains the rules to talk about

Republican than Democrat.

PLEASE do not use those words... they will get this thread closed

 

[GMforPowergamers]

So what, McDonalds is in every state, too. But you aren't likely to find hardcore Burger King affficiandos exiting McDonalds for the survey. That's the point, the sampling size is skewed and more importantly we don't know how thst effects the results. That's why the assumption is thst it is not representative.

show me better results then. notice that you are again arguing that this is so biased... but you can't show HOW it is biased.

 

[Parmandur]

show me better results then. notice that you are again arguing that this is so biased... but you can't show HOW it is biased.

Yes, exactly! That's my point.