D&D 4E Would 4E be Popular?

[A'koss]

Here's his post:
http://www.enworld.org/forums/showpost.php?p=1896955&postcount=170

Cheers!

Cool, I would never had guessed WotC was doing so well...

Thanks again,

A'koss.

 

[Psion]

To all the people who say "if I don't like 4E, I'll move to GURPS/HERO/C&C/whatever":

Why are you not saying "if I don't like 4E, I'll keep playing 3(.5)E" ?

Um...

 

[Zappo]

could be b/c d02 isn't any good.

Well, ok, that's a valid opinion, but if you already don't like 3E, what's the point of quitting D&D over 4E? I mean, if you didn't quit on 3E, why should 4E be any different?

Um...

I'm serious! With the transition to 3E, one could point to lack of support - "I don't want to play 3E, but past editions won't get new stuff, so I play GURPS instead". But support for 3E just won't stop (because of the OGL), and even if it did, the stuff that has already been published is enough to last several lifetimes.

I really don't understand why the release of 4E should cause anyone to stop playing D&D altogether. Why not keep playing 3E?

 

[Rasyr]

Let's see, given Charles Ryan said that 2004 was the best year ever for D&D (and not even counting the miniatures, novels or other accessories), I don't think 4E will hurry along.

IIRC, Dancey said the same thing about 2001, the year after 3.0 was released.

I still think 2008 is the best date for it. (10 years between editions is far too long).

It very well could be. Please notice that I have said either 2006 or 2008 (although I personally believe it will be 2006) in the past.

It all depends on the decisions that were made. When 3.5 was announced, there was a rant on the Malhavoc site that stated that 3.5 was scheduled for 2005 (not 2003), so it is no stretch of the imagination to consider the plan was to release a new "version #" every 5 years.

Thus, if the shortening of the cycle for 3.5 was a one-time event that would make 2008 the likely date for the release of D&D4. However, I don't think it was a one-time event, I think it was a shift in Hasbro's perceptions, and their desire for continuing revenue such as the CCGs produce. Thus, I think that the entire cycle was reduced from 5 years to 3 years (to follow a more CCG-like business model), and that we will thus see D&D4 in 2006.

As for my other predictions, the prediction about the increased dependence on minis comes from 3.5 already increasing the dependence on minis, and from the collectible nature of how they are selling the minis, and from Hasbro being primarily a toy company, thus they would want more dependence on something like that.

The prediction about 4E not being OGL. Well, that one comes more from a gut feeling than anything I have seen or heard, but to me it seems that they will not use OGL for 4E as other companies using OGL have cut into their market share. The size of the pie may be larger overall, but WotC has ended up with a smaller amount than it would have had had it not used the OGL. This combined with the number of OGL products that reduce/remove the need to buy the core books, is what, IMO, cause them to stop using the OGL.

Personally, I don't WANT to see 4E in 2006, nor in 2008, I would prefer that they wait until 2010 (7 years between editions, as 3.5 actually was a new edition whether they called it that or not).

 

[RFisher]

(10 years between editions is far too long).

¡!

For me, as a gamer, the time between editions should ideally be continually increasing. In the development of any sort of system--games, software, procedures, &c.--the rate of change naturally slows over time.

 

[DaveMage]

If D&D is as popular as Charles Ryan says, why would WotC risk losing customers by requiring people to learn a new ruleset?

I don't think we'll see a new edition until the popularity of the game declines.

 

[Kanegrundar]

If D&D is as popular as Charles Ryan says, why would WotC risk losing customers by requiring people to learn a new ruleset?

I don't think we'll see a new edition until the popularity of the game declines.

I hope (and pretty much think) you're right, DaveMage.

As to quitting 3E when/if 4E is released, I will only do that if 4E doesn't fit my needs. Granted, 3.5 works prefect for me and my group, so 4E would have to improve upon perfection for me. If it doesn't, I have more than enough material, and will continue to as long as publishers utilize the OGL, for the rest of my gaming days.

Kane