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Would you rather have Expertise or Advantage on a roll?
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<blockquote data-quote="Mercule" data-source="post: 7398484" data-attributes="member: 5100"><p>It actually depends on the target number. It's been a while since I ran the numbers, so I may be a bit off but the gist is that advantage gets better as the target number approaches 11 and worse as it approaches either end of the spectrum. Why? Just because of the way odds multiply.</p><p></p><p>At a target of 11, you're essentially at a coin flip. That means that you've got a 50% chance of even caring about the second roll. If you do, it's a 50% chance of helping you. That means .5 + (.5 * .5) = .75. So, at a target of 11, you get an extra 25% chance of success, which is the same as a +5 to a d20.</p><p></p><p>At a target of 20, you'll want that second roll 95% of the time, but it only helps 5% of that 95%, which is 4.75% (.95 * .05) improvement. That's close enough to 5% to just call it good. So, at a 20 target number, advantage is marginally inferior to a +1.</p><p></p><p>Things get a bit weird to translate to bonuses, as you approach a 1 target. At target number 1, advantage turns a 5% chance of failure to a 0.25% chance, which is the same variance from an actual +1 as with a 20 target number, but I find it less easy to dismiss. Regardless, while the curve isn't identical on both ends, it's close enough for rough in.</p><p></p><p>Worth noting is that, at 5 and 15, advantage is worth a bit less than a +4 bonus. Depending on how tough your group tends to run with DCs and armor, that's a sizable chunk of DCs that are covered by that bonus. Personally, I'd consider it on par with a +3 constant bonus, which means a break even for character levels 5-8 and advantage being better beyond that.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Mercule, post: 7398484, member: 5100"] It actually depends on the target number. It's been a while since I ran the numbers, so I may be a bit off but the gist is that advantage gets better as the target number approaches 11 and worse as it approaches either end of the spectrum. Why? Just because of the way odds multiply. At a target of 11, you're essentially at a coin flip. That means that you've got a 50% chance of even caring about the second roll. If you do, it's a 50% chance of helping you. That means .5 + (.5 * .5) = .75. So, at a target of 11, you get an extra 25% chance of success, which is the same as a +5 to a d20. At a target of 20, you'll want that second roll 95% of the time, but it only helps 5% of that 95%, which is 4.75% (.95 * .05) improvement. That's close enough to 5% to just call it good. So, at a 20 target number, advantage is marginally inferior to a +1. Things get a bit weird to translate to bonuses, as you approach a 1 target. At target number 1, advantage turns a 5% chance of failure to a 0.25% chance, which is the same variance from an actual +1 as with a 20 target number, but I find it less easy to dismiss. Regardless, while the curve isn't identical on both ends, it's close enough for rough in. Worth noting is that, at 5 and 15, advantage is worth a bit less than a +4 bonus. Depending on how tough your group tends to run with DCs and armor, that's a sizable chunk of DCs that are covered by that bonus. Personally, I'd consider it on par with a +3 constant bonus, which means a break even for character levels 5-8 and advantage being better beyond that. [/QUOTE]
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