another rpg industry doomsday article (merged: all 3 "Mishler Rant" threads)

[JohnRTroy]

Well, I was surprised at how strongly Erik came on as well, but to be fair James didn't just say that he didn't like Paizo's approach, he claimed that the PFRPG PDF was going to start a "Race to Zero" and pretty much decimate the PDF market. That seems a fair bit more harsh than "I don't like it". If someone accused your company and their biggest project in years as the harbinger of doom to an entire market, well, I can understand some emotion from Erik.

It's also an utterly unfounded argument.

It's not wrong when there's tons of economic data outside of gaming. I mean, I learned this stuff in college 20 years ago.

Loss leader - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Marketing academics have shown that retailers should think of both the direct and indirect effect of substantial price promotions when evaluating their impact on profit.[4] To make a very precise analysis one should also include effects over time. Deep price promotions may cause people to bulk-buy (stockpile), which may invalidate the long-term effect of the strategy. This is the association rule analysis.[5]

Loss Leaders, which is what Paizo is doing, can be risky to a market.

 

[seskis281]

A lawyer can be disbarred for giving misleading or outright wrong legal advice.

No, that's not what I'm saying at all.

I'm saying that when you speak from a position of authority, you bear the responsibility of that authority.

Really, that's not a radical concept.



To use an exaggerated example to show you what I mean: Opinions regarding medicine coming from, say, a Registered Nurse are going to be given a lot more weight that those coming from Joe the Plumber (although maybe not, in some circles -- but I digress).

As such, the RN should be a lot more careful about what they say, because they're speaking with authority about the subject.


Clearer?

Fair enough.

But that means everyone associated with the business, including yourself as a publisher, needs to give "facts without interpretation?" My own experience (and this is just MY opinion lol based on submissions, etc.) is that the 3-5 cent per word is pretty accurate for RPG writing - which is different from the 6-9 cents one might get from fiction writing for magazines. Did James perhaps overemphasize with a statement like "10 to 20 times?" probably - so note that and say I think he's wrong on this here.

But as to "responsibility of the authority," why does this apply to a small, one-man co. and blog differently than to larger entities? His only "responsibility" is to his customers, so if he's saying things he wants with an agenda towards making knocks at other companies, heh - well, that happens all the time - many representing WotC and many other companies give interviews or post things that are clearly meant to make knocks at competitors - this is called pushing the product and competing - nothing wrong with it and certainly expected - doesn't make them bad or good, right or wrong, just the nature of competing business - should we criticize and say "don't trust Mike Mearls or Scott Rouse!!" because they don't release sales specifics to back up assertions that 4e is doing better than 3e? Of course not, because we assume the nature of the biz and that they're gonna stand up for the product. If it's true then all the good for them and the market, if not, the market will determine a change or course-correction in the future.

Same thing with James's assertions - time will prove him right, wrong, or somewhere in the middle....

The RN and Lawyer comparisons are a bit problematic - yes, a lawyer can be disbarred for that - if he is in the process of acting in a contracted way as a lawyer. If a lawyer gives some bad info over a couple of beers or just venting on his own.... rambling on a blog is just venting personal feelings, and god help us if we start saying "you have the responsibility of not saying anything on your OWN site that might offend me."

 

[mearls]

Whenever anyone posts their thoughts on where the industry is going, they're telling you where their personal slice of the industry is heading. They might spin it as some global thing, but that very rarely applies.

I think we'd be all far better served if prophets of doom worked on, and delivered, solutions to the problems they see.

Frankly, it's bizarre to see someone simultaneously proclaiming doom while crapping on a lot of the efforts made to boost sales and get new blood into the industry.

 

[carmachu]

Yes, but people are missing the whole point of the essay saying that, while customers think PDFs are "worth less" (or "worthless"), that does not change the fact that there are certain fixed costs to publishing and it's not just the cost of printing and warehousing. Just because people are cheap doesn't mean that it makes sense to lower prices.

There seems to be a contradiction there. If people think PDF's are worth less then a print copy, then having a higher PDF price, instead of a lower one makes no sense either.

The costs are already done with with the book. So what if people are cheap. There are some that arent going to buy the book anyway. But I'd hazard that there are still far many ones that will, and do, buy the print version no matter how cheap the PDF is.

I think the OP is just flat out wrong in that regard.

 

[jgbrowning]

Loss Leaders, which is what Paizo is doing

I do not see the Pathfinder RPG $10 PDF as a loss leader.

joe b.

 

[ggroy]

Ryan Dancey chimes in on the Mishler's rant.

The Real Costs and Truths About The Industry So a fellow… | RPGpundit's Xanga Site - Weblog

 

[mhensley]

nevermind, ggroy beat me to it

 

[carmachu]

As I pointed out in the blog comments, as a matter of fact Paizo values PDF at 70% of printed price. Green Ronin values them at 55%. Malhavoc at generally 57%.

Now, those are publishers, but they are also successful publishers and Green Ronin and Paizo at least have pretty stable PDF prices, so (this is a logic leap due to a lack of sales info) I would presume they are happy with their PDF sales. So, when looking for actual facts, I'd say that the market valuing PDFs in the 55-65% of print price range is probably pretty accurate and stable.

True, but the other end of the spectrum is what the consumer is willing to pay for them(and of course the dead tree print version). If people are buying it at that price, great. If not....

There are more than a few people that have said they just dont value PDF's at all.

Personally I see exactly why the Pathfinder PDF is priced at $10. I've seen more than a few folks that have said they werent even going to look all of a sudden decide to take a look. I hope the strategy works out for them.

 

[UngainlyTitan]

And then there is the guy who thinks those young whippersnappers are the future of the hobby:

The Inevitable Future of Tabletop Gaming
The Inevitable Future of Tabletop Gaming | SquareMans

D&D: The Lost Art of Adventure Writing & The Death of the Hobby
D&D: The Lost Art of Adventure Writing & The Death of the Hobby | SquareMans

I honestly don't understand folks who think that because their business model worked yesterday it should always work.

If you cannot adjust to conditions in the market or better yet find new markets your endeavors are doomed to mediocrity or failure.

The second blog is an really interesting article and I wonder if Gleemax in it original conception was ment to foster that user generated content?

 

[JohnRTroy]

Wow, I thought people were overreacting here, the RPGPundit seems to be filled with venom.

Interesting to see Ryan seeing the gaming market as grim too.

Not sure I agree with him on author rates though.