iserith
Magic Wordsmith
I wonder if this goes some distance to explaining the different approaches. Those that don't fudge, at a guess, probably hew closer to baseline game expectations, and those that do fudge tend to wander further afield when creating encounters.
It's not true in my case. I don't even look at XP or CR anymore. I throw whatever makes sense at the party. Oftentimes, that means well above Deadly (by the numbers) multiple times per adventuring day.
The reason I don't need to fudge is that the stakes aren't always life-and-death and, even when they are, I'm prepared for character death with backup characters. If your PC gets laid low by that multi-critical fire giant, grab your backup character and play on. Or if you are of appropriate level and resources, have a contingency plan in place to resurrect the character in short order.
The possibility of bad luck occurring should be part of a player's decision-making process as should what to do if the character buys the farm.