10:1 illegal downloads

[Scribble]

I believe the study only analyzes the contention that decline in album sales is linked to music downloads.

The study will not be a perfect fit as there are differences between music and RPGs as well as the fact that it analyzes the situation five years ago.

I would think though that there would be a closer link between music downloads to CDs than between pirated pdfs and physical books as you can do the same things with CDs and music downloads (Copy them onto blank CDs, copy them onto your computer or mp3 player etc.) while books and pdfs have some different functionalities (non-screen reading, reading in bed, in a living room, at a game table, versus search, copy and paste, print out only the selection you need, portability on a laptop).

Annecdotally I've noticed the people who seem to still buy CDs generaly do so because they dislike MP3s, or paying for digital "nothingness" or want the other stuff that comes with CDs (art, music notes, lyrics etc...) So ind of like the book/pdf thing there does seem to be somewhat of a differentiation.

That aside, as you mention though with the book vrs PDF there DOES seem to be a big divide. Seems most people are not happy with PDF only, so I really don't see the PDF pirating cutting too big of a dent in the physical books either.

What I DO see is the ilegal downloads cutting a big dent into the sale of legal PDFs. If the same exact product is available for free at pretty much the exact same time as the one that costs... I don't think it's a stretch to think a larger majority will take the free one.

What incentive does WotC have to sell legal pdfs if there are people who only want pdfs and some of those will get the free pirated ones instead? This seems like a self evident answer to me but their incentive is to get the sales of PDFs from those who buy legally. The only way to get any money from the pdf only pool of purchasers is to sell pdfs.

Not selling pdfs means losing all the sales WotC would have gained if they were for sale.

Sure, but that's not what I was asking.

I'm not asking what incentive they have to provide a digital version of the books. I'm asking what incentive do they have to provide it in the form they were currently doing, as opposed to one they have slightly more control over?

 

[Voadam]

Sure, but that's not what I was asking.

I'm not asking what incentive they have to provide a digital version of the books. I'm asking what incentive do they have to provide it in the form they were currently doing, as opposed to one they have slightly more control over?

I didn't see that in your question, but all right, there doesn't seem to be any other form currently.

WotC used DRM when they first put out 3e pdfs. My understanding was that it did not stop pirates so it did not give WotC any greater control over the products and it made the pdfs less attractive to buy. I know I personally declined to purchase any DRM pdfs and the practice was eventually abandoned by WotC and every publisher on RPGNow.

So the options are sell to those who buy legally versus not sell until there is some new form of digital product they have more control over.

Incentives to sell to those who buy legally are to capture those sales.

Illegal copies of everything existing today will still be there whether WotC sells existing pdfs, doesn't sell them, or sells them in some other format in the future. Those who want free pirated ones can get them regardless of what WotC does.

The only impact I see that WotC can have through sales and file format is on future piracy of products that do not exist yet today as pdfs such as MMII for 4e and Arcane Power. And that will only last until they are scanned in from physical copies (as was done with all early 3e stuff before WotC sold any 3e pdfs).

 

[Scribble]

The only impact I see that WotC can have through sales and file format is on future piracy of products that do not exist yet today as pdfs such as MMII for 4e and Arcane Power. And that will only last until they are scanned in from physical copies (as was done with all early 3e stuff before WotC sold any 3e pdfs).

I don't dissagree here, but I don't think their goal is to defeat all pirating of their stuff.

I think their real goal is to stop the "casual pirate." The guy who would ordinarily buy the PDF, but can't resist the ability to get the exact same thing for free.

The scanned books are not the same. From what I've heard they're generally much larger file sizes, and lack most of the functions someone who likes pdfs generally wants. (Small size and ability to cut/paste being on the top. )

Those aren't going to realy tempt a person who would ordinarily buy the PDF to DL it instead (execpt maybe to see if he/she really wants to buy the book.)

And that said, DRM isn't the only way to protect the electronic version. DRM is annoying. I never bought any itunes stuff because of DRM, I can't stand the ipod. There are other ways to make the data less easy to casualy pirate, while still offering the consumer everything they need from an electronic product. (And possibly more then a simple PDF can offer.)

 

[Imban]

I think their real goal is to stop the "casual pirate." The guy who would ordinarily buy the PDF, but can't resist the ability to get the exact same thing for free.

The casual pirate is a dude in an online gaming group who is given a pirate copy of the PHB so he can make a character. (And you can say what you want about the GSL, but not nearly requiring piracy to convert people online from people who've heard of D&D into D&D players was a big advantage of the SRD for 3e.) He's casual because he has maybe ten pirated books that someone gave him at one time or another and doesn't seek more.

Those aren't going to realy tempt a person who would ordinarily buy the PDF to DL it instead (execpt maybe to see if he/she really wants to buy the book.)

Only if people who would ordinarily buy the PDF in addition to the physical copy are the only ones counted as people.

 

[Voadam]

I don't dissagree here, but I don't think their goal is to defeat all pirating of their stuff.

I think their real goal is to stop the "casual pirate." The guy who would ordinarily buy the PDF, but can't resist the ability to get the exact same thing for free.

The scanned books are not the same. From what I've heard they're generally much larger file sizes, and lack most of the functions someone who likes pdfs generally wants. (Small size and ability to cut/paste being on the top. )

Those aren't going to realy tempt a person who would ordinarily buy the PDF to DL it instead (execpt maybe to see if he/she really wants to buy the book.)

We hear different things then.

I know the 4e prerelease printer pdfs that were leaked were huge files without useable bookmarks but that it was not long before scanned in copies got smaller sizes, bookmarks, errata incorporated, etc.

I bought the 3e spell compendium pdf when it was on sale. It is a huge file (86 mb or something like that) that takes forever to turn from page to page on my computer and doing searches is painful. It pains me that there are better smaller file pirated versions out there that would be easier to use.

A good test would be to check the quality of a pirated 3.5 Monster Manual I as there was never a pdf from WotC for that product. My understanding is that there are good quality 3e core book pirate pdfs with searchable text, small file sizes, and great bookmarks, even though WotC never released them as pdfs.

I can't speak to the 4e pdfs, if they have improved or not over my experience with spell compendium, I never bought any 4e stuff and I can't jump onto rpnow anymore to see the listing of how many mb the different files were.

And for old edition D&D pdfs? Depends at which point in the scanning program they were as the early program ones had a lot of work put into them resulting in small files, searchable text, and good bookmarks. Then they outsourced the scanning on the cheap resulting in huge files, poor text scanning, and random amounts of bookmarking. Better than nothing but I bet there are better pirated versions existing. I'd have to double check if I can even copy any text in my pdf of the Rules Cyclopedia, I seem to remember that was one I couldn't in.

 

[Scribble]

The casual pirate is a dude in an online gaming group who is given a pirate copy of the PHB so he can make a character. (And you can say what you want about the GSL, but not nearly requiring piracy to convert people online from people who've heard of D&D into D&D players was a big advantage of the SRD for 3e.) He's casual because he has maybe ten pirated books that someone gave him at one time or another and doesn't seek more.

Well, yeah that's a different story. He's not hurting sales because he wasn't planning to buy the book to begin with.

Again what I think this is about is the guy who WOULD buy the pdf, but doesn't now because the exact same thing is available for free. So his choice is now: Either do the moral thing and pay that 25 bux for the PDF... or download the exact same product for free, and save that 25 bux for another xbox game.

His choice isn't between the real product and a stripped down version. His choice is between paying for the real product, or not paying for the real product.

Only if people who would ordinarily buy the PDF in addition to the physical copy are the only ones counted as people.

How so? This isn't about the physical copy.

 

[Dausuul]

I find 10:1 to be depressingly believable, and possibly a low estimate.

That said, I think it's a very poor basis for making the decision to unilaterally terminate all .PDF sales with almost no notice. I can certainly see deciding, "Hey, let's hold off on releasing anything new in .PDF until we work out how we want to address the piracy issue. And while we're working on that, we can do a little comparison and see how much longer it takes pirate copies to come into circulation, and whether the quality degrades significantly."

But for everything that's already been sold, the cat's out of the bag; those .PDFs are in circulation and nothing Wizards can do will take them back out. So why screw over legitimate customers and cut off the revenue stream from the sales they are making?

(I'll add that by handling this matter as clumsily as they have done, WotC has virtually guaranteed that someone in the throes of unholy nerd rage will make a point of scanning and uploading, on the day it comes out, every 4E book that's released in the next several months.)

 

[Krensky]

That aside, as you mention though with the book vrs PDF there DOES seem to be a big divide. Seems most people are not happy with PDF only, so I really don't see the PDF pirating cutting too big of a dent in the physical books either.

What I DO see is the ilegal downloads cutting a big dent into the sale of legal PDFs. If the same exact product is available for free at pretty much the exact same time as the one that costs... I don't think it's a stretch to think a larger majority will take the free one.

Baen Book's experience stands against your argument though. They sell ebooks, and many of them are also available at the same quality online for free either at their site or at one of the many places that has legally and with Baen's permission, posted the Baen CDs. They still sell lots of ebooks, hardcovers, and paperbacks and pay better royalties on ebooks then other publishers.

 

[Mistwell]

I think this decision does decrease the amount of sharing out PDFs on illegal download sites.

If the PDFs are no longer sold legally, and you know for sure your copy is illegal and easily recognized as such (because it's never been released legally as a PDF), and you also know they are going after illegal downloads, you are less likely to share out that file. Less sharing it means fewer people downloading it and slower download rates, which decreases the spread of that PDF.

 

[Imban]

How so? This isn't about the physical copy.

So now he's not going to buy the PDF not in favor of an equal but free option, but because he can't, so he's... either going to pirate a scan (if he wants to play D&D with it) or not play Dungeons & Dragons.

Unless he's the kind of person who also owns a physical copy, as I said. He's not going to suddenly transform from a gamer who uses solely the PDFs to game into a gamer that uses solely the hardcopies to game.

you also know they are going after illegal downloads

Tell me when that actually happens, please.