Since I spent a lot of time that should have been spent proofreading the Pathfinder Bestiary to write my response to Mishler's latest post, I figure I might as well get extra mileage out of it by reposting it here:
James, you're probably correct to predict that the tabletop RPG industry in its current form is living on borrowed time, but even giving it 10 to 20 years is like kicking the ball so far down the field that you can't even see it anymore.
Think about the different between the RPG market 10 years ago. D&D2 was at the bottom of a long decline, with non-core books selling in the four digits and almost all of the steam out of the thing. The industry had survived the TSR implosion circa 1996, and 3E was in playtesting, with an uncertain future.
In the large break room at Wizards of the Coast, Ryan Dancey and Cindi Rice were holding bi-weekly "brand/category interface" meetings at which they attempted to explain the concept of Open Gaming and the d20 License to a largely incredulous design staff, but word of a D&D licensing operation had hardly escaped Renton.
There was no such thing as a "PDF Market" for games. White Wolf was ascendant. Pokemon was just gearing up, building on a trend started by Magic and radically changing the way hobby stores stocked their shelves, managed their cashflow, and balanced their product. And, frankly, the way distributors serviced their publishers and retail clients, managed their preorders and inventory, and set the bar for success.
Wizards of the Coast had a national chain of retail stores. They were also running Gen Con and Origins, having recently acquired Andon Unlimited.
Game designers and company men, for the first time since Gygax, were becoming millionaires.
Anyone making any kind of prediction around that time frame of where the business was headed in 10 years (or a "prophecy," if you will) would have probably failed to have predicted the following major market forces that have significantly shaped how games are bought and sold in today's industry:
1. Successful launch of third edition reinvigorates core RPG business.
2. OGL triggers an initially successful product boom that founds or firmly establishes companies like Green Ronin and Fantasy Flight, and briefly pulls companies like Atlas, Pinnacle, and Chaosium into its orbit.
3. Pokemon surges strong, then fades. TCG market continues to shake out "dabbler" companies too numerous to mention.
4. Monte Cook proves electronic PDF products viable, essentially creating a parallel distribution channel that cuts out traditional distributors and retailers, allowing semi-profitable boutique publishing operations.
5. Wizards of the Coast diaspora that founds companies like Paizo, Hidden City, Sabretooth, and Privateer Press.
6. Establishment of online retailers like RPG Now/DriveThru and Paizo.
7. Wizards undercuts online retailers by pulling extensive PDF catalog of the most popular gaming brand in history from all online retailers, removing the most reliable and profitable spine of the PDF "industry".
8. WizKids invents and exploits affordable pre-painted miniatures.
9. Wizards does it better, creating a new sub-category for retailers and a healthy revenue stream for itself.
10. WizKids flames out spectacularly.
11. InQuest, Dragon, Dungeon, Comics & Games Retailer, Scrye: DEAD.
12. Blackhawk Distributors: DEAD.
13. WotC gets out of the retail, magazine, and convention business.
14. Peter saves Gen Con.
15. Peter almost loses Gen Con.
16. WotC releases 4th edition, a major revision of the most popular brand in the industry. It does OK, but for a variety of reasons fails to re-ignite the fire of 3e's launch.
17. WotC doesn't release 4e under the OGL, creating a host of interesting dilemmas for a lot of companies, who react in a host of interesting ways.
18. White Wolf releases a lackluster revision of their core RPG, then gets bought by a hugely capitalized Icelandic MMO company.
19. Global economic recession.
20. New technologies such as iPhone apps, virtual tabletops, and augmented reality hint at major paradigm shifts to come.
In 1999, the most talented prognosticator and industry expert could not have guessed a fifth of those things, no matter how many years they had spent writing a column for a gaming magazine, running a store, or even publishing RPGs.
Ryan Dancey probably would have come closest, and that's only because he was at ground zero of about a third of the things on the list.
If the RPG industry as it is today has 10 or 20 years of gas left in the tank, it's going to be around for changes like the ones listed above that none of us have even thought of yet.
P.S. One more thing I just remembered.
I seem to recall it was your old magazine, Comics & Games Retailer, but it may have been another that ran a column by Mike Stackpole that lamented how Wizards of the Coast was mis-managing the Dungeons & Dragons brand, offering $1 million to buy the brand with no questions asked.
That was about a year before 3e came out. I remember it because someone, I think Ryan Dancey, was so bemused by the idea that he pinned the article to the corkboard outside the D&D R&D department.
That was about 1999, which goes to show how reliable decade-out predictions are in this business.
--Erik
