I am under no illusions that the press release is real. But wether it is real or not Gen Con 2006 seems about right to me.
The best indicator I have heard yet about revision schedule is that it is based more on sales than on anything else. And more importantly it is a counterintuitive indicator. The faster the books sell the sooner a new revision. 3.5 came about in part when it did because another printing of the PHB was needed and since changes would have to be made to all the proofs to fix errata (or they would never have heard the end of it) why not use the opportunity to save costs and just put out the new version instead. Now as for 3.75 or 4.0 it will depend on how many books they printed in the first place, how many they have in inventory and how fast they sell. If they start running low and are faced with another printing in a year or two expect to see some more "Minor" changes and 3.75 to be released at Gen Con 2006. If they need another printing by 2005 this can easily be extended by a year by anouncing 3.75 which will kill demand for 3.5 preventing it from officialy going out of print. If they have a larger quantity or it is selling slower that could be pushed back to 2007 or 2008 (but unlikely to be beyond 2008) At that point expect a version 4.0.
They are also about to run into the same problem as 3.0 in that they are running out of major suplements and certainly will by summer 2006. How long can they expect us to buy Enviorment series and Race series books at high demand levels, when by doing 3.75 or 4.0 you can once again sell the high sales suplements like planar handboks, setting handbooks, psionics, etc.
As for the notion that Eberon will delay a new version this seems highly unlikely to me. Eberon will have been out for at least a year along with the major suplements for it. By this point it will likely have whatever fan base it can expect and further sales will not be relied on to be very large. If you are already playing Eberon you aree unlikely to stop just because of a version change (FR players are happy to continue on with new versions). This will also allow for another high sales conversion suplement to be released. Additionaly if Eberon is successful it might even push demand for a new version to incorporate as core popular features like hero points.
As for the basic set it hopefully will drive more sales but this will only increase pressure for another reprint sooner and to me that means a new version. As for compatibility it realy shouldn't matter since I doubt they will be changing the base d20 mechanic and upgrading players will have to learn more and different rules wether they go to 3.5 or 3.75/4.0.
Just as plans were secretly being formulated for 3.5 as soon as 3.0 was released (This has been confirmed by many WotC staff) I fully expect that 3.75/4.0 planning started as soon as 3.5 was released. Just like 3.5 planning though any new versions will be under tight NDAs and no public mention will be made until about 9 month before release. As a result there will be either real denials by people who are out of the secrecy loop or propery phrased denials by those in it like "There are no plans at this time for 4.0" which could be technicaly right because "at this time" means in the upcoming 9 months or "4.0" literaly means 4.0 and not 3.75.
Lastly there is no doubt in my mind that any new version will be timed to release at Gen Con no matter what the year. This is by far the best time to get buzz and buy in by the most people at one time.
So despite the humorous satire release my money is still on Gen Con 2006.
