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Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral
A series of questions that arise: Is D&D "doomed" to cult/underground status? Even death? Are tabletop RPGs in general? Consider:
1) The continuing rise of computer games.
2) The imminent breakthrough of virtual technologies.
How (long) can D&D survive?
Personally I don't think D&D is dying but that it may be entering a major "shrinkage" phase, from a major hobby of several million players to a large cult following of a few hundred thousand. I don't ever see it
dying, per se, at least until some kind of Singularity occurs (!). But given the seemingly incontrovertible fact that tabletop RPGs are a "graying" hobby, there are always more folks leaving the hobby than entering it. Even by polishing it with a World of Warcraft veneer, it won't draw the supposed goldmine of computer gamers simply because it is not a computer game.
Let me posit four "waves" of tabletop RPGers:
First Wave - Mainly Boomers (late 40s and older); those that started playing before 1980, either with OD&D or 1ed; the Founders.
Second Wave - Mainly Gen-Xers (roughly 28-45); most started in the 80s with BECMI, 1ed or 2ed D&D.
Third Wave - Mainly Gen-Yers (ages 10-27); most started post White Wolf, in the 90s or later, or with 3ed D&D.
Fourth Wave - ? These would be those folks who haven't played tabletop RPGs yet, or are just starting with 4ed.
I have no idea what the actual demographics are, but my guess is that the largest portion of D&D players is from the Second Wave (2W), with a sizable portion in 3W and a smaller portion in 1W. Those that are in 1W will probably continue playing until the day they die ("From my cold, dead hands"); the problem is that mortality rates rise, as we've seen with the many older game designers that have died in the last couple years (Gygax, Arenson, Wujcik, Crossby). Those in 2W are the backbone of D&D; some came back to playing with 3rd edition, perhaps after an early career/family hiatus; some with 4th. Many will gradually dwindle away, but a solid group of them could play for another decade or two. 3W is not quite as large as 2W, or at least more diluted by other games. Many of 3W haven't reached the crisis of "career/family vs. hobby," so it remains to be seen how many will last. 4W...we just don't know yet, but considering the two points above--computer games and virtual technologies--things don't look promising.
Thoughts?