D&D 5E From what you've seen so far, do you think D&D Next will be a success or a failure?

[ForeverSlayer]

One can form an opinion about it, but it is a personal opinion, and not much more than that. It is very clear that people *aren't* very good at predicting the popularity or success of things in an moderately open marketplace. If we were good at it, we'd more often then not pick the right stocks to invest in, always know what will be the next Cabbage Patch doll or Beanie Baby. But, we don't.

Thus, your posit here is just incorrect.

And that's setting aside how "success" and "long lasting" are not well defined.

Personal opinion is what this thread is about. Nobody is looking for a scientific analysis as to how long the game will last, so my post is spot on.

 

[Yora]

Depends on how you define success. But since 4th efition seems to have been cancled because of poor sales, nd I don't see 5th doing better, I don't think it will get a lot of books released during it's run, however long it might last.

 

[Plaguescarred]

If 5E provide enought modularity to satisfy a good portion of the fanbase, has a robust Organized Play, OGL and supports all its key settings, it will be a huge success IMHO.

 

[Shiroiken]

I think that Next will be a success, based on my own level of success. It will certainly take at least the #2 spot, and it has a decent chance of toppling Pathfinder for #1. It will have a solid surge at the start, which is sort of the point of a new edition (sell core books). It looks like it might become my favorite editions (success for me ).

It might not reach unrealistic goals set by Hasbro, which might cause it to be shelved early, but that is a failure on the part of Hasbro, not the product. Also, as noted earlier, new editions are primarily to sell more core rule books, so editions are getting shorter as time passes. 1E lasted more than a decade. 2E lasted about a decade. 3E was about 8 years (with a 3.5 halfway, which was a scam). 4E lasted about 5-6 years (with Essentials at about halfway, same scam). I would guess that 5E will last 4-5 years, with a "new" set of core rules after year 3. This has nothing to do with how good or bad 5E is.

 

[ForeverSlayer]

I think that Next will be a success, based on my own level of success. It will certainly take at least the #2 spot, and it has a decent chance of toppling Pathfinder for #1. It will have a solid surge at the start, which is sort of the point of a new edition (sell core books). It looks like it might become my favorite editions (success for me ).

It might not reach unrealistic goals set by Hasbro, which might cause it to be shelved early, but that is a failure on the part of Hasbro, not the product. Also, as noted earlier, new editions are primarily to sell more core rule books, so editions are getting shorter as time passes. 1E lasted more than a decade. 2E lasted about a decade. 3E was about 8 years (with a 3.5 halfway, which was a scam). 4E lasted about 5-6 years (with Essentials at about halfway, same scam). I would guess that 5E will last 4-5 years, with a "new" set of core rules after year 3. This has nothing to do with how good or bad 5E is.

I think Hasbro has learned a lesson about pushing their goals too high. I think the biggest thing that Wizards needs to worry about is the fact that there are tons of gamers out there who aren't waiting for D&D's next big thing. People used to sit back and drool, waiting for D&D to get started again, but nowadays people have their games of choice. The game will sell initially because you have to buy it to at least try it out. If 5th edition lasts 4 to 5 years then I think that will be a failure. I also wonder, how big their planned production line will be. I wonder if they will see how the core sells and then proceed to come out with extras, or will they just dive right into the extras without looking to see how well the game is selling.

 

[Warskull]

I think the biggest thing that Wizards needs to worry about is the fact that there are tons of gamers out there who aren't waiting for D&D's next big thing. People used to sit back and drool, waiting for D&D to get started again, but nowadays people have their games of choice. The game will sell initially because you have to buy it to at least try it out. If 5th edition lasts 4 to 5 years then I think that will be a failure,

I feel that people having their game of choice is the biggest threat to Wizards. Now there are tons of RPG options out there, cheaply available too. Some of which you can read the rules and try for free via OGL wikis. How they launch will have a large effect on their long term prospects. If the game is $50 per book, people might be a little hesitant to buy in blind. Especially when Pathfinder, 4th edition, 13th Age, 3.5 or whatever their current favorite version is good enough.

Everything has things they like and dislike about their current version. I think the biggest hurdle for Wizards will be getting people to take the gamble on a new system when there are so many other systems out there.

That's why I think the OGL could really help their early adoption. There is a world of difference between requiring a $50 starter kit and letting players just experiment with freely available information.

 

[Fobok]

There may not be as many as there used to, but there's still a *ton* of D&D fans out there. Look past the hardcore fanbases of ENWorld and Paizo boards, and the game you see most people talking about is D&D. I don't think there's any question of will D&D be successful.

 

[ForeverSlayer]

There may not be as many as there used to, but there's still a *ton* of D&D fans out there. Look past the hardcore fanbases of ENWorld and Paizo boards, and the game you see most people talking about is D&D. I don't think there's any question of will D&D be successful.

Well when a new edition is coming out of course people are going to be talking about it.

Doesn't mean they are going to play it though.

 

[Ezequielramone]

This is just a feel:
I believe the core books will bring a lot of money to WotC. I think that, in general, people in Pathfinder will stick in Pathfinder and people in 4e will stick in 4e, there may be few people going for one edition to other, but not enough to count. And sinse there are many people playing 4e, so there will be playing 5e/Next. I see the history repeating here. There are people who will play both games, or even more editions, if they have the time.


I will talk about what I know, and I don't know if this comparison is valid... but anyway...
Pathfinder reinvent itself with every hardbook (or almost every)... APG introduce archetypes and cut off Pathfinder from D&D 3.5 (IMO, I'm not saying that is absoluty this way), Ultimate Magic and Combat are a little twist, ARG is a huge tool, ultimate campaign is not a super tool but it's useful... and so on. But I haven't see those things in D&D, their products are just a bunch of feats, items, deities and classes and don't give me the feeling of rebirth. There are excellent books, of course, I have A LOT of 3rd ed. book, but "it cost more books" to give me the same feeling. And, sadly, books are payed with hours of my life and hard work.
I guess that happend again in 4e, even with less number of products. And some says they ruined Forgotten Realms.

I believe that now there are mayor decisions that are over the game itself that will define the future of D&D. Like price, online support, format of the lines of products, settings to develop, marketing, quality of the products (no white spaces, one monster per page, etc, durability of the books).

Edit: And I voted "Not enough information to speculate".

 

[Blackwarder]

I love it how folks cover their ass in this thread by saying "of course it will sell like hot buns at first, but than it will tank"...

Personaly, I think that the first rank if books will sell great, after the first ones are out I have no idea, whether this constitue a "success" or a "failure" is out of my pay grade and frankly area of intrest

Thing is, I think WotC is aiming at treating D&D as a brand the same way Marvel treat their brands, with multiplie product to multiplie consumers and the RPG, while being the most recognizable, will hardly be the biggest part in this scheme.

So, I guess, the right question should be "Whether WotC & Hasbro will be able to leverage D&D to be a media spanning brand including action figures, Legos, games, TV shows, and movies? Beside the current RPG and book publishing already going on? Or whether they won't be able to do so.

Warder