the sky fell somewhere around 3 and a half
I have not read this entire thread, so I apologize now if I'm reiterating something someone already said.
First, while Ryan is dancing around the topic of fantasy gaming denigration/deterioration, he isn't talking about the "death" of TRPGs (crap, I already hate that acronym). He's talking about the death of his paycheck. Guys like Ryan don't see gaming as a hobby, but as a franchise; something to make money from.
Gaming isn't going away. Profits are.
The downward trend of sales from 3rd parties is indicative of this shift, but not emblematic. Some of us have been seeing a decline in sales for 10 years (all jokes aside) as each book sells less than the previous one (this is the case with every game company). But now, the bottom of sales is so low -- for a number of reasons* -- that companies are cranking out more books each month just to stay afloat, making due with volume. OR… they pulling in the reins and cutting back production costs (cf. overhead, payroll, etc.) in order to be a leaner company.
* Distributors order less of Dungeons and Dragons expansion book 66 than they did of book 65; store owners don't push sales; gamers leave the hobby; stores go under with nothing to replace it; people buy product on Amazon instead of supporting the FLGS (which has obvious long-term effect); etc.
This hobby turned into an industry somewhere in the last 20 years and trying to make it obey the laws of supply & demand, economic viability, and mens rea mea culpa juris prudence is short-sighted and greedy; not to mention, ignorant of previous trends. The train hobby continues to thrive without much advertising or growth into the mainstream.
How?
By raising prices when necessary, employing a smaller staff, and understanding that hobbies are NOT necessities. People will buy what they want, when they want. Making trains collectible doesn’t improve the longevity of the hobby, just the short-term gains.
Splat-book publishing for d20 followed the (flawed) CCG model of a book a month (in most cases 10 a month), which is the equivalent of turning the consumer upside down and shaking the change out of his pockets. No one needs 16 books on slaying kobolds. I don’t even want to face 16 kobolds. Why do I need so many books on them?
Saturation does not equal quality, no matter how hard they try to sell you on the new iterations of books coming out now.
Gamers buy what they want; not what the publisher thinks they want (see recent sales of Vampire: Requiem for evidence of this). More on this another time.
What Ryan is also failing to see is the fantasy and superheroes are hot, "right now." If banality is the word of the day (we work boring jobs, etc.), then certainly escapism must emulate something less jejune than walking for hours and hours while killing crocodiles (cf. EQ). Lord of the Rings, Narnia, Spiderman, X-Men, etc. are all part of a trend, that may or may not stay. And should it go away, the inflated value of online fantasy gaming will disappear with it.
Another factor to consider is that $15 a month is a cheap distraction from melancholy. Contrast that to the unappreciated work-intensive, cost-intensive role of DM and what do you get? A cheaper, faster surrogate that doesn't get mad when you're late for a game, doesn't notice if you forgot to bathe or left your cell phone on, won't judge you for "leaping into the fray and getting everyone killed," and could care less if you "wreck the campaign" with your uber-drama.
As an extension, online gaming has fewer stagnation-dependent liabilities (gamers in bad moods, poor character concepts, without manners, and so on). And while the “fun quotient” is lower online then at the table top, the fun there is assured. A bad session (or simply people in a bad mood) can ruin an evening of gaming in a way that MMORPG gaming is practically immune to.
And at the end of the day, the numbers don’t lie. Over 1 million people bought the core books for 3.0
1 million.
All the while, 50,000 copies of the Monster Collection were sold and the average 3rd party company sold only 10,000 or so of similar products in the same year. And ever since, the numbers have declined.
That tells me people can game without buying product. That tells me that the $15 a month for WoW is essential to the enjoyment of that product.
Blue Orcs Gone Wild! by Malhavoc is not.
And if only 1 million people played WoW, it would only take 3 months at $15 a month to make the money of the PHB, MM, and DMG combined.
If only 1 million.
By contrast, there are 1.5 million people in China, playing WoW.
And who only plays for 3 months?
If you played D&D for 3 months, wotc wouldn’t see one additional dime. The game is paid for. And if you only need one or two sets of books per table it takes on average 3 times as many gamers to equal the sales potential of a MMORPG.
So.
If you measure RPG success like Ryan does, with $$$s. How can you conclude anything else?