D&D 4E What will happen if 4E doesn't use the OGL?

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Compatible-with-D&D, and especially Compatible-with-d20 Modern, products are still all the rage in .pdf, but in print they seem to be going away very rapidly without a closed 4e.

I think you're grossly underestimating how many adventures Goodman, Necromancer and likely Paizo sell.

 

[MoogleEmpMog]

I think you're grossly underestimating how many adventures Goodman, Necromancer and likely Paizo sell.

Really? Emphasis added:

As far as I can see, 'compatible with D&D' d20 products are basically dead in print already, with the exception of adventures.

Necromancer and Paizo are basically going all-adventure, all the time. Goodman seems to have scaled back or eliminated their non-adventure products.

 

[Darrin Drader]

I said this in another thread, but it seems appropriate here, so I'll repost it.

Well, what the heck, might as well chime in.

First of all, WotC is to D&D what Microsoft is to Windows. Sure, they tried the open source thing, but I'm not so sure that it panned out well enough for them that they want to do it again with 4E. Keep in mind that this is all speculation, and at this point in the game I have no insider knowledge.

Now, my prediction for 4E is that we'll probably see a game that is easier to learn and streamlined so that combat moves faster. Let's face it, even Ryan Dancey said that D&D was a half hour of fun condensed into four hours of actual play. Let's also face that facts that between WoW and Neverwinter Nights, there are D&Dish experiences out there that allow people to adventure with groups of other people, with fast moving combat, and pretty incredible graphics (just got my copy of NWN2 today. Wow!)

So if 4E is a streamlining of the system, and it isn't open game content, I think that a fairly large segment of the gaming population is going to ask for another option. In the computer world, it's called Linux. Hey, what do you know, we already have that with the OGL. Sure, they can yank the D20 logo license, but so what? The OGL allows game publishers to create new games using pretty much any rules they want to create, but it is expected that they will be derived from D20.

The OGL will continue to exist, though following WotC's lead, publishers will probably morph it into a system that plays faster. I expect that someone will release something that people will like and will be 100% open game content, and then other publishers will run with the ball. I think Green Ronin has something pretty close to that right now with True20, though I'm not sure that a large number of people are willing to embrace all the mechanical differences in that system, such as the loss of hit points.

So when this brand B comes along, and it is widely supported by third party publishers, WotC will effectively be competing against its own prior success. The market will probably follow D&D 4E, but I could see this as of yet unseen new system gaining a pretty good following, and one day being the preferred system among the serious gamer geeks.

As for my personal opinion, I'm going to watch and wait. If 4E is an improvement over 3E, and it doesn't try to revamp what roleplaying is by turning it strictly into a miniatures game (the very thing the game morphed from to begin with), I'll check it out and I might even switch my home game to it. If I don't like it, and there's probably a 50% chance of that, then I'll start looking into OGL alternatives, possibly even helping push for that third party streamlined standardized initiative.

 

[PapersAndPaychecks]

This may be the case. But there is an important difference: 1E and 2E players had no choice when the game moved on. If they wanted to continue having active support for their game, they had to migrate to the new edition.

I think the Dragonsfoot site owners, for example, might take issue with this phrase.

 

[JVisgaitis]

Please don’t get me wrong. I believe a majority of people will migrate to 4th edition. But if there is no OGL for 4th ed, the third party press will continue to support 3.5 via the OGL by default in the short to medium term.

Sorry, I don't buy that for a second and I personally know a lot of publishers. The day that 4e is released OGL or not, there will be a LOT of 3rd party products on sale that will work with "The World's Most Popular Fantasy Roleplaying Game."

 

[JVisgaitis]

I am saying that WotC is a threat to WotC.

Wanted to mention one thing on this point as well. Wizards makes the market. They'll decide when we want a new edition and what way the market will go. I don't doubt that they'll be fragmentation and 3e Grognards when its released, but I think you are way overstating this.

Wizards will do just as well as they are now when they release 4e, and probably a heck of a lot better. Just the mention of "New D&D" on the streets will be enough to bring people back buying in droves with the one caveat being Wizards bouncing back from all the negative press regarding Dragon & Dungeon. As long as their Digital Initiative offers something substantial, I think 4e will be a lot more successful then 3e ever was.

 

[Ranger REG]

But none of these games are D&D, and thus simply can't be as successfull. No matter what happens, the owner of the D&D licence will dominate the field for the foreseeable future.

Then it won't make a difference if I'm no longer a customer for D&D.

At my age, I can live without it, even the hobby itself.

I do know how powerful that brand is, just by hearing complaints about how many books everyone has with that label.

 

[Ranger REG]

The OGL will continue to exist, though following WotC's lead, publishers will probably morph it into a system that plays faster. I expect that someone will release something that people will like and will be 100% open game content, and then other publishers will run with the ball. I think Green Ronin has something pretty close to that right now with True20, though I'm not sure that a large number of people are willing to embrace all the mechanical differences in that system, such as the loss of hit points.

So, the Ryan Dancey legacy continues, well after his employment at WotC...

 

[JohnRTroy]

Interesting thoughts.

I guess it depends how different 3e is from 4e.

If 4e is still similar to 3e, keeping sacred cows, familiar rules, etc., we may see a majority move towards 4e. If that's the case, most of the fans may move.

But I suspect more radical D&D changes with 4e. They've made a real strong emphasis on miniatures, we've seen MM's take on "radical changes" to existing monsters, and Ryan's thoughts on canceling Dragon and Dungeon emphasis a move towards hybrid table-top/computer gaming. If this is the case, the 3e gamers may feel disenfranchised and may stick with the OGL version.

The problem with the removal of Wizards is there will be no "one true king", and without a leader we will see things factionalized, balkanized, and numerous "petty kingdoms" of the system. And there will be incompatibilities, so that will further factionalize the player base.

D&D 4e might be a huge success with new players--if that's the case, it will be a radical change similar to the way the original D&D and other RPGs eclipsed the die-hard war games. If that's the case, 3e may occupy a position of "Dragonsfoot 2.0", where a large loyal base plays the old system, but there's no leader and a lot of opinions.

Or, Wizards may miscalculate the size of the potential player base. If that's the case, then D&D is a failure and the market becomes more of a "long tail" situation, where the masses of other publishes end up eclipsing the D&D market in total, but with Wizards still having the "bookstore" shelf space (or computer game shelf space if things get really radical).

 

[Darrin Drader]

The problem with the removal of Wizards is there will be no "one true king", and without a leader we will see things factionalized, balkanized, and numerous "petty kingdoms" of the system. And there will be incompatibilities, so that will further factionalize the player base.

Welcome to Linux. Still, Fedora Redhat does a pretty darn good job running my web server.