D&D 4E What will happen if 4E doesn't use the OGL?
- Thread starter Alzrius
- Start date
Desdichado
Hero
I'm not sure that's the worst case scenario, actually. Nor, honestly, do I think it's necessarily the most likely.
HOWEVER, since you asked for speculation about a specific scenario, I'll do my best.
HOWEVER, since you asked for speculation about a specific scenario, I'll do my best.
- Third Edition (or 3.5 if you prefer) has more "legs" than other older editions, due to the OGL. I mean, when you've got legal hypertext SRD's online for anyone to use, it's just too easy still, right? I imagine that while the player base by and large will migrate to 4e--assuming 4e is any good, and not another 2e where almost everyone seems to end up playing hybrids--more people will remain with 3.5 than has happened with any other edition change in the past.
- The small press and pdf d20/OGL is already a niche "cottage industry" today, and will probably remain so. More guys will switch to pdf as revenue streams become more uncertain. How many people will pick up a product for an obsolete system? Well, if you cost of production is extremely low, that question becomes a lot less important than it used to be. Brand names that are well known in the pdf market will probably take the edition change in stride and continue running full steam ahead, at least in the short term.
- Some d20/OGL products with strong brand recognition of their own will continue unchanged. I'm thinking of stuff like Iron Kingdoms, which has products coming out slowly but steadily and even it's own magazine. Players of Iron Kingdoms probably don't care too much about changing editions and will continue to play the edition that their material is printed for. I'm sure there's a few other examples, but that's the one that immediately came to mind.
- Independent games will continue to use the OGL (although not the d20) because it's easier and often more convenient than developing a house system. Why not? If it's an independent game line that would otherwise be under a house system, then who cares if the system is "obsolete" or not in the greater D&D universe?
JVisgaitis
Explorer
Mark CMG said:
Your not the only one. Usually I don't even bother posting when see these types of questions...
WotC hasn't been following the spirit of the OGL for years, already. Sure, the original SRDs are OGL, and a few things they publish here and there might be, but pretty much everything new is proprietary.
And I'm not just talking about new books with new material and classes. Look at the latest printings of the core books. WotC changed key wording of certain sections, but did not make any official errata, nor did they change the SRDs. All of the FAQ and RotG articles, which sometimes differ significantly from the core rules, are copyrighted. I'm willing to bet the upcoming Rules Compendium is going to D+D even more.
The question is not "what happens when D+D is not OGL". WotC has already slipped that through the back door when people weren't looking. The real question is: what happens when the start trying to enforce their copyright?
And I'm not just talking about new books with new material and classes. Look at the latest printings of the core books. WotC changed key wording of certain sections, but did not make any official errata, nor did they change the SRDs. All of the FAQ and RotG articles, which sometimes differ significantly from the core rules, are copyrighted. I'm willing to bet the upcoming Rules Compendium is going to D+D even more.
The question is not "what happens when D+D is not OGL". WotC has already slipped that through the back door when people weren't looking. The real question is: what happens when the start trying to enforce their copyright?
Desdichado
Hero
I'm not sure what that means. For folks who are using the OGL and d20 licenses correctly, there's nothing WotC can do. I think those who weren't cleaned up their acts years ago.Deset Gled said:
kigmatzomat
Hero
The mistake is in thinking it's all or nothing.
If 4e is a closed game it will be successful. If 4e is an OGL game it will be successful. IMO it would be more successful over the long haul with an OGL component but regardless, 4e will make the owners of D&D boat loads of money as long as it isn't Cyberpunk 4e drek. Even if it is utter drek, so many people will buy it out of curiosity that it will still break even.
However....4e will be competing with the d20 system which will never, ever, ever completely die. Look at how long Fudge has been around and tell me that d20 would die. Fudge is almost infinitely less well known and it still soldiers on! D20 will do the same but it is widely known even if it doesn't have the same market cachet.
D20 will probably become something like GURPS only with the system shared across the industry rather than within SJG products. D20's appeal will be that everyone knows how to play it and that it is a workable mechanic that any publisher can use. New game settings/systems will continue to be released with various levels of adherence to the "pure" R/SRD (ala Conan or Arcana Evolved). The total quantity of new d20 product releases will continue to decline for a while (the market is pretty saturated and PDFs could be available indefinitely) but will stabilize at some point as new material feeds the market cravings and new versions replace out-of-print products on shelves.
D20 will compete with 4e. Matter of fact, d20 will compete with 4e regardless of 4e being OGL or not! I doubt that all the d20-variant games will convert to 4e because they don't need to. Just release their books without the d20 logo and provide a "Game Guide" with an XP chart. I'd say that d20 will probably wind up with a White Wolf's worth of market share with the lion's share of that taken up by 2-3 top publishers and the rest divided up amoung hundreds of smaller companies.
It is unlikey that any d20 publisher will really rival WotC, or even WW, but it could happen if they come up with an excellent setting and decent support.
If 4e is a closed game it will be successful. If 4e is an OGL game it will be successful. IMO it would be more successful over the long haul with an OGL component but regardless, 4e will make the owners of D&D boat loads of money as long as it isn't Cyberpunk 4e drek. Even if it is utter drek, so many people will buy it out of curiosity that it will still break even.
However....4e will be competing with the d20 system which will never, ever, ever completely die. Look at how long Fudge has been around and tell me that d20 would die. Fudge is almost infinitely less well known and it still soldiers on! D20 will do the same but it is widely known even if it doesn't have the same market cachet.
D20 will probably become something like GURPS only with the system shared across the industry rather than within SJG products. D20's appeal will be that everyone knows how to play it and that it is a workable mechanic that any publisher can use. New game settings/systems will continue to be released with various levels of adherence to the "pure" R/SRD (ala Conan or Arcana Evolved). The total quantity of new d20 product releases will continue to decline for a while (the market is pretty saturated and PDFs could be available indefinitely) but will stabilize at some point as new material feeds the market cravings and new versions replace out-of-print products on shelves.
D20 will compete with 4e. Matter of fact, d20 will compete with 4e regardless of 4e being OGL or not! I doubt that all the d20-variant games will convert to 4e because they don't need to. Just release their books without the d20 logo and provide a "Game Guide" with an XP chart. I'd say that d20 will probably wind up with a White Wolf's worth of market share with the lion's share of that taken up by 2-3 top publishers and the rest divided up amoung hundreds of smaller companies.
It is unlikey that any d20 publisher will really rival WotC, or even WW, but it could happen if they come up with an excellent setting and decent support.
BluSponge said:
This may be the case. But there is an important difference: 1E and 2E players had no choice when the game moved on. If they wanted to continue having active support for their game, they had to migrate to the new edition.
What will happen if there are still at least a half dozen companies publishing 3rd Edition material? Oh, I'm sure most players will go to 4th Edition. But there's a real risk for WotC that a significant and independent fanbase will emerge around the legacy 3rd Edition system -- permanently dividing their customer base for all time.
There's a couple of ways WotC can avoid that:
(1) Go to the biggest and most popular D20 producers and offer them a lucrative license to produce 4th Edition support material. The sure money (and probably the big money) will be with 4th Edition, so these companies would be sorely pressed to turn down this offer. When they take it, you live with them producing material for 3 or 4 or 5 years and then you simply refuse to renew the license.
The companies that would have formed the core of a "3rd Edition Resistance" are thus used to push the ascendancy of 4th Edition instead. By the time the license expires, the war is already over and 4th Edition wins.
(2) Release a 4th Edition SRD, but don't release it under the OGL. Release it under an agreement designed to look more like the D20 Trademark License -- a license that can be revoked at any time at WotC's whim. Even if the third party companies see the writing on the wall, they'll have no choice but to join the 4th Edition bandwagon (just like they had to join the 3.5 bandwagon).
Wait a couple of years, then revoke the license.
I don't see any guarantee. The people in charge of R&D at WotC now are the people responsible for the original edition of STAR WARS D20, after all.
Alzrius said:
WotC would not fair well. They would face a revolt from teh players. Not all, mind you, but a good chunk will look over the vast stuff from 3.5 and at thew new 4th and say "screw it"
Between all the 2nd party OGL makers, Peopl have a ton of material to use and reuse. 4th would have to be an incredible system to tempt them.
It wouldnt be pretty.
Steel_Wind
Legend
On 4th edition, OGL, and the end of all things
It seems to me that the automatic switch to 4th edition by the gaming public is taken for granted and not analyzed carefully enough.
Can somebody explain to me why all these people with a bazillion hardcovers on their shelf, many (if not most) of which have barely been read - are in such a rush to switch and scrap $1500-$2000 in mostly new and modern hardcover books?
Does the answer change when it's only $200 in hardcovers on the shelf?
Why does that happen? Why?
When the switch to third edition came, 2nd edition was about 12 years old. Rules wise, it was a much older system still – essentially being first edition with a tweak here and there. The bulk of the game was circa 1978 in design, and it was creaky as hell. 2nd edition was played by a lot of people why just used the first edition books to play it.
Art direction wise, the 3.x game presented itself as radically different, too. The printing quality of 2E material was nowhere NEAR that of 3rd edition WotC.
Third edition was a huge change in comparison with this. System wise, rulebook wise, art, presentation – everything changed.
When 3.0 changed to 3.5, there were some changes in the crunch but it wasn’t that big a deal. Yes, people preferred switching to 3.5 to maintain pace with the new books - but there was something else that mattered to many gamers too: The switch was incremental and more name than substance. And the OGL was maintained so the switch impacted there as well in terms of perception.
If you stayed behind in editions – the message would be clear: you would be marooned as nobody would support it. Dungeon and Dragon magazine would no longer support 3.0. The D20 3rd party press would no longer support it on an ongoing basis. If you wanted any new products at all -– you needed to switch to 3.5.
That’s the difference. That’s the key.
So the overwhelming majority of people did switch to 3.5 - and fast..
Well this recent claw back of Dungeon and Dragon magazines may have thrown a wrench in things for WotC. Now we’ll be upgrading to “stay current” with what, exactly?
If 4th edition throws out the OGL and breaks with 3.5 – I really am not so sure there will be this unified great mass exodus from 3.5 to move to 4th as there was before.
There are 90 some hardcovers out for 3.x from WotC alone. There are more rules than we could ever want – and for most of us – ever read. Moreover, the overwhelming majority of these books are very recent. They are new – and they look and feel modern too. This is not some dusty old game book that is about to be replaced by something looking a bazillion times better and glitzier.
And it isn’t going to be accompanied with an urgency to “stay current” with the Magazine’s support and the rest of the third party press, either.
Please don’t get me wrong. I believe a majority of people will migrate to 4th edition. But if there is no OGL for 4th ed, the third party press will continue to support 3.5 via the OGL by default in the short to medium term. Given that there are no WotC “official” magazines to stay current with anymore, and given that there is a good chance that the only “magazine” which will be out there, Pathfinder, will continue to support the OGL system – I am not so sure that we will see a complete mass exodus at all.
Because staying “current” will no longer have the same meaning. If WotC drops the OGL for 4th edition – they will only ensure that the third party press continues to support 3.5. The old system will continue to be supported by third parties – and that has never happened before.
Now – I don’t think WotC thinks this amounts to much of any threat. And certainly in the long term they are probably right. But I’m not so sure they are right in the short to medium term.
As a consequence, I expect that we will see a far higher fragmentation of the market when 4E comes out than we ever saw form 2>>3 or the 3 to >> 3.5 switch. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a migration to 4th – but I don’t think it will have the same speed and domination of the market that we saw with the change to 3.x.
WotC has created a monster with 3.5; it won’t be easy for them to kill it.
Certainly, this is reason enough to clean up the existing licenses to ensure there are no official settings that continue to support 3.x D20. That probably is a factor in all that has been done recently as well (though I don’t think it’s the primary factor involved).
Please do not misunderstand me. I am not saying that Paizo and Green Ronin are a threat to WotC. I am saying that WotC is a threat to WotC. Like Microsoft and WinXP, WotC’s biggest competition to 4th ed will be its own version of 3.5 of the game. To the extent that Paizo and Green Ronin and the other 3rd parties continue to support 3.5 through the OGL, a WotC 3.5 which is supported by third parties on an ongoing basis by those parties will keep WotC 3.5 viable and remain the biggest competition to 4th ed.
I do think that the sheer size and volume of material that 3.x has generated will be so large, and so new, that it will not be possible to just wave it all away and get people to switch en masse to 4th ed. Not this time – at least – not now.
If Wotc was wise, they would ensure that 3rd party support for 3.x ends when 4th edition starts. One could say that is what the end of all these licenses signifies – and they may be right to a degree. The surest way to ensure that support for older editions ends is to permit support for newer editions of 4E.
I don’t think WotC is wise enough to do this though. I think they are too greedy, too sure of their position as market leader and too dismissive of the possibility of failure.
Nevertheless, if they leave Paizo/Necro, Green Ronin, Goodman Games and a handful of the other larger 3rd parties with nothing else to do other than support 3.x OGL – then it’s a good bet that a lot of them will try to support 3.x OGL by default in the short term. And that will persuade many (not most – but many) to stay with using their WotC 3E books much longer than they otherwise would have.
I think a wiser course would be to kill off support for 3.5 by ensuring there is an OGL with 4E. I don’t think WotC is that smart.
In short: these damn tea leaves are not easily read.
It seems to me that the automatic switch to 4th edition by the gaming public is taken for granted and not analyzed carefully enough.
Can somebody explain to me why all these people with a bazillion hardcovers on their shelf, many (if not most) of which have barely been read - are in such a rush to switch and scrap $1500-$2000 in mostly new and modern hardcover books?
Does the answer change when it's only $200 in hardcovers on the shelf?
Why does that happen? Why?
When the switch to third edition came, 2nd edition was about 12 years old. Rules wise, it was a much older system still – essentially being first edition with a tweak here and there. The bulk of the game was circa 1978 in design, and it was creaky as hell. 2nd edition was played by a lot of people why just used the first edition books to play it.
Art direction wise, the 3.x game presented itself as radically different, too. The printing quality of 2E material was nowhere NEAR that of 3rd edition WotC.
Third edition was a huge change in comparison with this. System wise, rulebook wise, art, presentation – everything changed.
When 3.0 changed to 3.5, there were some changes in the crunch but it wasn’t that big a deal. Yes, people preferred switching to 3.5 to maintain pace with the new books - but there was something else that mattered to many gamers too: The switch was incremental and more name than substance. And the OGL was maintained so the switch impacted there as well in terms of perception.
If you stayed behind in editions – the message would be clear: you would be marooned as nobody would support it. Dungeon and Dragon magazine would no longer support 3.0. The D20 3rd party press would no longer support it on an ongoing basis. If you wanted any new products at all -– you needed to switch to 3.5.
That’s the difference. That’s the key.
So the overwhelming majority of people did switch to 3.5 - and fast..
Well this recent claw back of Dungeon and Dragon magazines may have thrown a wrench in things for WotC. Now we’ll be upgrading to “stay current” with what, exactly?
If 4th edition throws out the OGL and breaks with 3.5 – I really am not so sure there will be this unified great mass exodus from 3.5 to move to 4th as there was before.
There are 90 some hardcovers out for 3.x from WotC alone. There are more rules than we could ever want – and for most of us – ever read. Moreover, the overwhelming majority of these books are very recent. They are new – and they look and feel modern too. This is not some dusty old game book that is about to be replaced by something looking a bazillion times better and glitzier.
And it isn’t going to be accompanied with an urgency to “stay current” with the Magazine’s support and the rest of the third party press, either.
Please don’t get me wrong. I believe a majority of people will migrate to 4th edition. But if there is no OGL for 4th ed, the third party press will continue to support 3.5 via the OGL by default in the short to medium term. Given that there are no WotC “official” magazines to stay current with anymore, and given that there is a good chance that the only “magazine” which will be out there, Pathfinder, will continue to support the OGL system – I am not so sure that we will see a complete mass exodus at all.
Because staying “current” will no longer have the same meaning. If WotC drops the OGL for 4th edition – they will only ensure that the third party press continues to support 3.5. The old system will continue to be supported by third parties – and that has never happened before.
Now – I don’t think WotC thinks this amounts to much of any threat. And certainly in the long term they are probably right. But I’m not so sure they are right in the short to medium term.
As a consequence, I expect that we will see a far higher fragmentation of the market when 4E comes out than we ever saw form 2>>3 or the 3 to >> 3.5 switch. That doesn’t mean that there won’t be a migration to 4th – but I don’t think it will have the same speed and domination of the market that we saw with the change to 3.x.
WotC has created a monster with 3.5; it won’t be easy for them to kill it.
Certainly, this is reason enough to clean up the existing licenses to ensure there are no official settings that continue to support 3.x D20. That probably is a factor in all that has been done recently as well (though I don’t think it’s the primary factor involved).
Please do not misunderstand me. I am not saying that Paizo and Green Ronin are a threat to WotC. I am saying that WotC is a threat to WotC. Like Microsoft and WinXP, WotC’s biggest competition to 4th ed will be its own version of 3.5 of the game. To the extent that Paizo and Green Ronin and the other 3rd parties continue to support 3.5 through the OGL, a WotC 3.5 which is supported by third parties on an ongoing basis by those parties will keep WotC 3.5 viable and remain the biggest competition to 4th ed.
I do think that the sheer size and volume of material that 3.x has generated will be so large, and so new, that it will not be possible to just wave it all away and get people to switch en masse to 4th ed. Not this time – at least – not now.
If Wotc was wise, they would ensure that 3rd party support for 3.x ends when 4th edition starts. One could say that is what the end of all these licenses signifies – and they may be right to a degree. The surest way to ensure that support for older editions ends is to permit support for newer editions of 4E.
I don’t think WotC is wise enough to do this though. I think they are too greedy, too sure of their position as market leader and too dismissive of the possibility of failure.
Nevertheless, if they leave Paizo/Necro, Green Ronin, Goodman Games and a handful of the other larger 3rd parties with nothing else to do other than support 3.x OGL – then it’s a good bet that a lot of them will try to support 3.x OGL by default in the short term. And that will persuade many (not most – but many) to stay with using their WotC 3E books much longer than they otherwise would have.
I think a wiser course would be to kill off support for 3.5 by ensuring there is an OGL with 4E. I don’t think WotC is that smart.
In short: these damn tea leaves are not easily read.
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