delericho
Legend
And I ask, again - how often is someone actually getting into the hobby without someone guiding them?
We don't know. Even WotC may well not know, since it's hard to track potential sales that were lost.
What I do know is that even for people who do have someone to guide them, the sheer size of the rules can be discouraging. I also know that it is trivially easy for a supplement to add complexity, but near impossible for one to remove it.
That suggests to me that a simpler, lighter entry route would be preferable. That way, the people who want light can get it, the people who want complex can get that, and everyone is happy-ish.
(Of course, the best method would be a really good Starter Set fully compatible with, and leading into, the 'real' game. But given that WotC have never managed that, and given that D&D hasn't had a good one for decades now, I wouldn't like to bet on them doing it right this time.)