The d20 and Expectations of Success - A Quick Study

Herremann the Wise

First Post

• Oct 13, 2008

• #1

Hello Everyone,

This is just a quick poll to see roughly what a slice of the gaming community thinks when rolling their d20. The more votes, the more of an answer I suppose I'll get to the question of expectations of success.

The Question

Your character is supposed to be pretty good at a particular action according to the stats or however you have designed the character. Now this particular action isn't what the character is best at, but it is supposed to be something above average for them.

You roll a d20.
What do you think is the smallest number you could get and still succeed at the action?

Thank you very much for your participation.

Best Regards
Herremann the Wise

PS: Blame Rangerwickett as he got me thinking about expectations of success and failure in gaming. This is all relative to a group I have just started to build the "5E of D&D" from scratch. It's just a handful of discussions at the moment that might be interesting for those who have an interest in design and want to put just a little more darkness and mystery back in the game. See the link in my sig. if you're interested.

 

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Slander

Explorer

• Oct 13, 2008

• #2

10.

Under normal circumstances, I should be able to perform such a task well all of the time (take 10). Under duress, I would expect to make a mistake or two before I get it right.

For comparison, I would expect an untrained person performing the same task would need a 15+. I would expect a task at which I am specially trained/focused to succeed on a roll of around 5. All of this assumes that these are not opposed rolls.

 

J

justanobody

Banned

Banned

• Oct 13, 2008

• #3

3- No edition was specified, so the lowest number needed to have a chance of success is anything but a 1 which would be a failure in some editions.

 

blargney the second

blargney the minute's son

• Oct 13, 2008

• #4

In a d20-based system, I'd generally expect my best trick to work on a 5 or above. For an okay ability I'd expect 10+, for a poor one 15+.
-blarg

 

Frostmarrow

First Post

• Oct 13, 2008

• #5

Incidentally the golden ratio is the equivalent of 61,8 ...% on a 1d100. I.e. roughly 9+ on a d20.

 

O

Ourph

First Post

• Oct 13, 2008

• #6

Assuming a DC/AC/target number of around 20 and a 1st level character, I voted 12+. A +8 is pretty good for most skill checks and attack rolls at 1st level. If it's the character's best "trick" I can see achieving +10 or +11 at 1st, but for something that's "good but not the best", I think +7 to +9 is a reasonable range.

 

P

Pinotage

Explorer

• Oct 13, 2008

• #7

8 seems reasonable for something the character is good at.

Pinotage

 

S

S'mon

Legend

• Oct 13, 2008

• #8

8 for a skill check. 14 for a to-hit roll.

 

S

S'mon

Legend

• Oct 13, 2008

• #9

Ourph said:

Assuming a DC/AC/target number of around 20 and a 1st level character, I voted 12+. A +8 is pretty good for most skill checks and attack rolls at 1st level. If it's the character's best "trick" I can see achieving +10 or +11 at 1st, but for something that's "good but not the best", I think +7 to +9 is a reasonable range.

Click to expand...

For an attack I'd expect ca +5 (BAB +1, +3 STR, weapon focus). For a skill probably +7 (4 ranks, +3 stat).

 

Man in the Funny Hat

Hero

• Oct 14, 2008

• #10

Insufficient data for a meaningful response. It depends on what the action actually IS. Not all skills or abilities should have success/failure represented as 5% increments of pass/fail. For some things, even if you are reckoned to be good at it your chances of success should still be low - better than others maybe but still low. For other things that you are reckoned to be good at your chances of success should be high. For still other things there should not be a question of failure but only degree of success.