The d20 and Expectations of Success - A Quick Study

[Frostmarrow]

9 is probably like C on a No. 2 pencil test. It is the most applicable choice (more answers are still located in the C position), but that would be too easy to pick, so you expect it to be something else and go for something less obvious.

Nice theory. I find it interesting that it coincides with the golden ratio (mentioned above). What do you think, is the golden ratio applicable to dice rolls?

 

[Noumenon]

I answered the question based on my experience as a DM. If you roll a die for a monster to see if it hit, or made its Ride check or whatever, and you don't exactly know the DC or the target's AC, at what point do you start checking to see whether it hit or not? If I roll a 3 for any action, I just skip to the next initiative. If I roll a 9, I'm gonna look up that rule.

 

[TheNovaLord]

id like a 75% chance at my specialism
60% at something im more than comeptent at
40% other stuff

so an 8 on a d20 i guess

 

[justanobody]

Nice theory. I find it interesting that it coincides with the golden ratio (mentioned above). What do you think, is the golden ratio applicable to dice rolls?

That would depend on the number of dice, and the number of faces each polyhedron has wouldn't it?

I think Murphy's law applies more to dice rolling.

 

[Verdande]

If I'm supposed to be above average, and I'm doing something that an average person can do, I'd damn well better do it more than half the time. I said 7, since that translates out to a 13/20 chance that I can do it. Better than half, but certainly not dominating.

I'm actually split between 7 and 6, personally, but it really depends on what I'm doing and what the actual situation is.

 

[RangerWickett]

My statement was that people like to succeed 70% of the time. If in combat, the optimal fun comes when you succeed 70% of your saves, and hit on 70% of your attacks. That lets you feel like you're winning, and gives you a victory high, without making you feel like it was too easy.

Now, what I don't have a good idea on is how long a combat should last for optimal fun. I believe few combats should ever go longer than half an hour, and the absolute limit would be an hour and a half, and even that should only occur for very complicated events where the players have a lot of investment in the outcome.

If you have a more casual game, where you play for the sake of playing, not for a story, you could probably double those times. Some gamers enjoy combat the way they watch football - slow, with lots of breaks. I prefer it to be more like basketball - fast, with quick back and forth.

 

[RangerWickett]

Oh, and as an addendum, that 70% should be the result of some amount of skill. An unskilled person is generally content to succeed 50% of the time, and to have a reward for learning how best to play the game that lets him get up to 70% success.

 

[Herremann the Wise]

Oh, and as an addendum, that 70% should be the result of some amount of skill. An unskilled person is generally content to succeed 50% of the time, and to have a reward for learning how best to play the game that lets him get up to 70% success.

Hello RangerWickett,

I thought I'd test this out and the results seem to match up with the psych studies you were suggesting. A 70% chance of success correlates to a 7 being the smallest roll that one could reasonably expect to roll and still be successful for something there character was supposed to be good at.

As people have mentioned upthread, the "9" gap was interesting. I think this is just more people nominating a "10" as one step better than a 50/50 chance or just perhaps because 10 is half of 20.

Anyway, thanks everyone for responding.

Best Regards
Herremann the Wise

 

[Hussar]

7. A "good" chance of success would be a 2/3 chance of success.

AR

I agree with this. I went with 6 (splitting the difference I guess). Giving a slightly higher chance of success. But, if it's something you're good at, you should be pulling it off at least twice as often as you fail.

 

[Vegepygmy]

I went with 6 (splitting the difference I guess).

I also went with 6, on the theory that it should normally take about an 8, but also assuming that the "smallest number you could get and still succeed" should allow for a circumstance bonus.