Pramas: Does 4E have staying power?

[TerraDave]

Chris Pramas has an interesting blog post here.

In separate conversations, an executive in the game trade and the former RPG buyer for a major chain of bookstores both told me the same thing: 4E sold in well but follow-up sales were slow. One of them told me that 4E supplements were selling at the same level as 3E supplements at the beginning of this year (i.e. 8 years into 3E's lifecycle).

He also covers the layoffs, the GSL, and the dearth of 3rd party support.

 

[DaveMage]

Thanks for the link.

Summertime should be interesting.

 

[hexgrid]

That is interesting info if true.

 

[malraux]

On the flip side, at the beginning of this year, the house bubble hadn't yet popped and the credit market was still functional. So its not exactly an apples to apples comparison. Also, looking at the 3e 3rd party market immediately after launch vs the 4e 3rd party market also isn't exactly an apples to apples comparison, as we know in retrospect that the 3e 3rd party market was its own bubble.

 

[thecasualoblivion]

3rd parties aren't releasing anything new at this point under any system. Aside from Pathfinder, what major 3rd party OGL items have been either released or announced? Is there any OGL release aside from Pathfinder/Paizo that you would call more significant than Goodman's DCC books going 4E full force?

4E has divided the community, and on a city by city, FLGS to FLGS comparison, the results are going to vary wildly. In addition, I think Amazon stole a large portion of the RPG market when they released the 4E core set for half price. They have been pricing D&D books agressively ever since, and I'd wager they've kept a lot of customers buying from them. Judging the success of 4E sales from looking at FLGS and distributors isn't going to be a good predictor with Amazon's presence factored in.

 

[Shroomy]

Its an interesting post, but I wish that Chris would have accounted for two things in his analysis. One, what is the effect of Internet retailers that sell the 4e books at huge discounts compared to what the brick & mortar stores can offer, and second, what about the effect of the DDI, since WoTC is essentially selling a vast majority of their crunch content via the Compendium.

 

[TerraDave]

The layoffs could imply that DDI is not yet a success.

 

[Shroomy]

The layoffs could imply that DDI is not yet a success.

I doubt that the DDI met the initial expectations for revenue or progress (how could it, given what was promised); Randy Buehler admitted as much in DI #17.

 

[DaveMage]

and second, what about the effect of the DDI, since WoTC is essentially selling a vast majority of their crunch content via the Compendium.

An excellent question.

 

[filthgrinder]

On the flip side, at the beginning of this year, the house bubble hadn't yet popped and the credit market was still functional. quote]

This.

4e sold in well, and then we had ridiculous gas prices, and then in September we had an economic meltdown. We've suffered lay offs nationwide, consumer spending during that period fizzled out. So, the purchase of non-essiential like role playing suppliments suffered.

No kidding, did it really?

"Yeah, when people had money they bought stuff, now people don't have money, so they aren't buyign stuff. Obviously stuff is bad, the old stuff was better!"

Come on.

This is obviously biased viewing of data intended to promote a certain point of view. Seriously, enough of the 4e bashing, we GET IT. You don't like the product. Move along.