Pramas: Does 4E have staying power?

[malraux]

I don't know about that. Core books are still a luxury item in some sense. As consumer income increases, I expect sales of core books do increase slightly. But not as much as supplements, I agree there.

I guess I would say that there are two factors. The first is people who are short economically who don't buy the books (but would have in better times) and people who would have bought other things (new xbox, new gaming PC, ski trip to Vail) only having the money to buy gaming books. The latter mitigates the former, though possibly not completely.

 

[TerraDave]

Its intersesting that WotC in its otherwise silly and dilberesque statement on the layoffs did not blame the economy.

ICv2 - Digital Consolidation at WotC

Gaming could easily be a countercyclical hobby. Few are cheaper, and picking up a book here and there (and that is all it takes for strong sales) is not expensive.

And of course previous recesions seem to be correlated with strong sales for the game.

 

[xechnao]

You're saying you believe that he meant that 4e supplements were not selling at all? I know that cannot be true.

I cant say I am totaly sure but I am significantly more inclined to believe he was talking about D&D book sales about 10 months ago -novels excluded- which means Races and Classes and the like are included. Either this or the person he was discussing with was talking about the period of Rules Compendium or somewhat before. But I believe the period of reference is most probably about a period after 4e's announcement. But perhaps this does not even make a difference given the general rumor that D&D sales had declined to some point since 2006.

 

[Filcher]

Apart from the actual discussion of 4E sell through success/failure, the silly part to me is that the majority of the leading 3pp were banking on 4E replicating 3rd ed's success. Everyone wanted a gold mine like 3rd ed produced, and since it hasn't, the game system is to blame.

In my opinion, this seems foolish. The market conditions (2nd ed ----> 3rd edition vrs. 3rd ---> 4E) are not remotely similar. 3rd edition is a viable game, 2nd edition (some will beg to differ) was not.

After selling pies to starving orcs, you go to fat, well-fed humans and expect the same sell through? No way in heck.

And yet, the new pies must be no good.

Bah. Stupid argument.

 

[DaveMage]

I think if 4e does not pick up some more momentum, 5e may come sooner rather than later, which would also be unfortunate, but may be inevitible; 4e is the first version of an entirely new set of rules, which means entirely new problems to iron out.

If 4E does poorly, I think it just as likely there won't *be* a 5E (at least from WotC).

 

[Mark]

Apart from the actual discussion of 4E sell through success/failure, the silly part to me is that the majority of the leading 3pp were banking on 4E replicating 3rd ed's success. Everyone wanted a gold mine like 3rd ed produced, and since it hasn't, the game system is to blame.

I don't see it. Some former 3pps who have independent companies in their own right have touted the GSL as a reason for non-support of the new edition. Some people have pointed out some faults in the system, the business model and the lack of successful support through the DDI but I have not read anywhere that a former 3pp blames 4e for their own success or failure. Can you link to something somewhere that backs your assertion? With hundreds of former 3pps out there, and a few 4e 3pps making a go of it, I'd imagine there must be tons of links you could give if this were true.

 

[Roman]

If 4E does poorly, I think it just as likely there won't *be* a 5E (at least from WotC).

There is little doubt in my mind that there will be a 5E. There are only two questions for me. One is that of timing: i.e. whether 5E will come in 10 years or in say 5 years. The other question is that of direction: i.e. whether 5E will be based on the 4th edition, or if it will attempt to base itself more on say 3.5E (doubtlessly with some 4Eism thrown in) or if it will try to forge an entirely new direction. There is no question, however, that there will be a 5E eventually, barring some truly major unforseen circumstances.

 

[xechnao]

After selling pies to starving orcs, you go to fat humans and expect the same sell through? No way in heck.

lol. I liked this quote.

And yet, the new pies must be no good.

Bah. Stupid argument.

Monte Cook had said that 4e had to be really brilliant becasue of this very condition. So I guess when people think the new pies are no good they mean not good enough. Not only for 3pp but also for Wotc which has some pretty high commercial standards.
In fact it seems Paizo says to be doing better and if (infintely big if) 4e tanks perhaps some of the current 3pp will have the chance to gain status big time. Some of the people that currently got laid off could already make a deal with a 3pp augmenting its fame (Paizo perhaps?).

 

[TerraDave]

I agree with Mark. The GSL has gotten the blame. And rightly so.

The "system" is really just streamlined d20. Tons of stuff could be done with it. If stuff could be done with it.

 

[TerraDave]

Ya, on the whole pies thing...the fact that 3E is more competitive is kinda part of the point...