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Pramas: Does 4E have staying power?

Just to summarize - the OP wonders if 4e has legs and what the sales looks like based on anecdotal statements by a 3PP.

There is bickering.

The data we do have access to, such as the USA Bestsellers information, shows 4e supplements kicking the snot out of 3e supplements, and the 4e core beating the 3e core. This is data of national sales from the largest retailers in the country. Some posters label this as "irrelevant" while arguing that anecdotal evidence presented by others mirrors their own experiences. Strangely, these posters are not 4e fans.

Then joe b. sums it up nicely here:

Fans need to distance themselves from caring about sales numbers and just play what they like. There's nothing better about playing a well-selling game because it sells well, just like there's nothing better about playing an indie game just because it's indie.
 

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Just to summarize - the OP wonders if 4e has legs and what the sales looks like based on anecdotal statements by a 3PP.

There is bickering.

The data we do have access to, such as the USA Bestsellers information, shows 4e supplements kicking the snot out of 3e supplements, and the 4e core beating the 3e core. This is data of national sales from the largest retailers in the country. Some posters label this as "irrelevant" while arguing that anecdotal evidence presented by others mirrors their own experiences. Strangely, these posters are not 4e fans.

Then joe b. sums it up nicely here:

You sir have won the internet.
 

Lets compare to games I'm most familiar with:

1. Vampire: the Requiem--There are five Vampire clans, and the differences are cosmetic more than anything, combined with five political factions. You have a point buy system to customize characters, but between class, race, abilities, feats, skills, powers, items, and paragon/epic there is more room to customize 4E.

Ok, with VtR you customize through…clans (which each have individual benefits and drawbacks contrary to your statement), political affiliations (again with benefits and drawbacks), disciplines, skills (way more discreetly than D&D), attributes, merits, items, … I’m not seeing it, especially since VtR gives a more precise method of customization. However let’s actually spend the same amount on the WoD as we do on D&D for the core game we want to play and see how that widens up…

So we could get the WoD corebook (allowing us to play mortals), Vampire the Requiem (Vampires) and Werewolf the Forsaken( allowing us to play werewolves). Now we have the political organizations and tribes for werewolves, as well as a boatload of new powers, etc. for them…way more than that offered in the D&D 4e PHB, and since the nWoD rules were created to promote cross play this is perfectly viable… As well as playing separate games of either…or just a mortal game. And guess what? We still spent less than the D&D 4e core costs.
 



As politely as I can be, I don't say in public or in any permanent medium. Fans don't need to hear from me about any products other than Expeditious Retreat Press products. I only spoke up here because I don't think Chris deserves any disparagement.

Fans need to distance themselves from caring about sales numbers and just play what they like. There's nothing better about playing a well-selling game because it sells well, just like there's nothing better about playing an indie game just because it's indie.

joe b.

Playing a popular game has value in that you can walk into a strange gaming store in a strange city, play M:tG for a few days, and after talking to the local geeks easily find a game of the current edition of D&D to join. Finding a group running some indie game or older editions of D&D is going to be a lot harder.
 

2. 3E D&D. In 3E core there are 11 classes to 4E's 8. Both editions have race, class, abilities, skills, feats, powers/spells, items, and Paragon/Epic. lets look at a few:
Race--4E has one more race than 3E in the PHB, for what that's worth. 4E's races tend to remain relevant throughout the entire game where 3E's fade away after the first few levels. 4E has racial feats to specialize further in your race. The monster manuals of both editions have monster races, but I would heavily argue that dropping LA and ECL gives 4E more bang for the buck. Advantage: 4E

Uhm, even though many of the handful of races we get for 4e in the MM…are wonky, power wise, at best when matched up with the PHB races? Yeah much better than ECL or LA… Or did you just decide to skip that since it doesn’t support your argument. In fact this makes the advantage definitely with 3e since it has enough low level monsters that can be used without any problem to outdistance 4e. Advantage: 3e

Class--4E has eight classes to 3E's eleven. In terms of choices though, 4E's eight classes all give a substantial amount of options, while in 3E it is split between Bard, Cleric, Druid, Wizard, and Sorcerer getting piles of options and Barbarian, Fighter(core feats do little to nothing--Fighter needs his splats), Monk, Paladin, Ranger and Rogue getting little to no options. In addition, balance issues make many 3E classes(particularly the Monk, but including Bard, Fighter, Paladin and Ranger) unattractive choices in core only. Overall, 3E has incredibly deep options along four paths(Bard, Cleric, Druid, and Wizard/Sorcerer sharing the same path), and six other classes who don't go far beyond "pick a class". 4E on the other hand takes the options available for the Spellcasters and splits them between eight classes. Each class gets less than a 3E spellcasting class, and the options are spread over the entire. In addition, 4E has removed the bad choices, so there is more bang for the buck in the available choices. While there may be less powers/rituals than there were 3E spells, when you remove the stupid choices 4E comes out at least equal. Advantage: Push

I will also note that many people are now starting to find that certain powers are objectively better than others that a class can choose, so I really wish people would stop touting the powers as all equal options when they aren’t. How can a sub-par choice in 3e equate to no choice but one in 4e is still viable? It’s even becoming debatable that some classes are less effective in their roles than others (Warlock vs. Ranger). So let’s give the game a little more time before we start declaring how viable it is option wise.

Multiclassing--3E had the ability to choose any class to gain a level in, but this didn't exactly work well in practice(without prestige classes). Doing anything less than taking full levels in a spellcasting class gimped your character, and in core good results tended to be limited to adding Barbarian, Fighter and to a lesser extent Ranger levels to nonspellcasting classes. In 4E, multiclassing through feats and Paragon Paths doesn't promise as much as 3E did, but it works. Some classes have more synergy with ability scores, but you can make a viable character out of any two of the eight classes in the PHB. Advantage: 4E

Again, jumping the gun…Tell me what benefit a squishy, low hp controller has in trying to multi-class into fighter or paladin classes. Will he be able to be an effective defender? Or is he basically worthless in that role?
 

Playing a popular game has value in that you can walk into a strange gaming store in a strange city, play M:tG for a few days, and after talking to the local geeks easily find a game of the current edition of D&D to join. Finding a group running some indie game or older editions of D&D is going to be a lot harder.

I don't think anyone's saying that 4e isn't popular. If so, that's a bit foolish. 4e is a very popular game. What people want with sales figures is to determine if its more or less popular than what's come before, which, IMO, is something else entirely unrelated to ease of gaming group acquisition.

joe b.
 



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