Pramas: Does 4E have staying power?

[Darkwolf71]

While 3E books were sold on Amazon, there was nothing that could compare to the big "event" of selling preorders for the 4E core set for $61.

Yes, I was one of the 'orphins' who waited several weeks to get my Amazon preorder, I know. But again, the topic is specifically about comparing 4e supplement sales to 3.5 supplement sales.

Just to summarize - the OP wonders if 4e has legs and what the sales looks like based on anecdotal statements by a 3PP.

There is bickering.

The data we do have access to, such as the USA Bestsellers information, shows 4e supplements kicking the snot out of 3e supplements, and the 4e core beating the 3e core. This is data of national sales from the largest retailers in the country. Some posters label this as "irrelevant" while arguing that anecdotal evidence presented by others mirrors their own experiences. Strangely, these posters are not 4e fans.

Then joe b. sums it up nicely here:

Fun Fact that has nothing to do with topic since it is about 'core' books: Your database also shows some 3e core books (MM... I think, I did this check late last night) kicking the snot out of it's 4e version. By staying on the list two weeks vs. one and peaking at 53ish vs. 132 or so.

 

[thecasualoblivion]

I don't think anyone's saying that 4e isn't popular. If so, that's a bit foolish. 4e is a very popular game. What people want with sales figures is to determine if its more or less popular than what's come before, which, IMO, is something else entirely unrelated to ease of gaming group acquisition.

joe b.

Sales figures have a strong correlation with gaming group acquisition. Gaming group acquisition has value.

 

[Scribble]

This is the Completist's Dilemma. It seems like, for 4e, Wizards in banking in a big way on players being completists. "They'll buy minis for the powers! They'll buy DDI for the compendium! They'll buy every supplement because it's core! Gotta catch 'em all!"

I find your view on this interesting... Because it's just seems like such a different way to think about things then I tend to...

You seem to see it as if WoTC was somehow able to force us to buy more products.

Whereas I fall into the category of feeling WoTC is attempting to supply the demand of its fan base.

Players want an online database of the rules elements. WoTC attempts to supply that.

Players want minis. WoTC attempts to supply that.

Players want new suppliments for their game. WoTC attempts to supply that.

One big thing I think we're seeing is that YES 4e was designed with not just the thought that there might be suppliments, but the knowledge that players WANT and expect them. (And they want and expect them on a regular basis.) So the game needs to be designed with that idea in mind. The game needs to be able to have new material add to it and change it, without that new material causing the original system to break down.

Certainly, I'm a little in this category. I'm trying to be more fair to them, but in my book, if I've Gotta Catch 'em All, I'll leave that to the trufans and go play Ars Magica. I don't need D&D to have fun.

This made me smile... It sounds like something you hear people say about drugs and alchohol. "I don't need to drink to have fun!"

 

[xechnao]

2) Not as well as expected does not equate to 'below average' or even 'not great', neccissarily.

Nah, I doubt they had really unrealistic expectations and I doubt they did not have some minimum of growth expectations that has to do with their book sales.

OTOH what I figure out after the latest posts it is rather even more probable that the problem seems to be number 2 than number 1.

 

[garyh]

Fun Fact that has nothing to do with topic since it is about 'core' books: Your database also shows some 3e core books (MM... I think, I did this check late last night) kicking the snot out of it's 4e version. By staying on the list two weeks vs. one and peaking at 53ish vs. 132 or so.

3e's core books came out staggered, so there was no (immediate, at least) gift set to compare to. Compare the 4e gift set + MM totals to the 3e MM totals to get a better picture.

I don't think 3.5 had a prominent gift set, either, but I could be wrong.

 

[The Little Raven]

Uhm, even though many of the handful of races we get for 4e in the MM…are wonky, power wise, at best when matched up with the PHB races?

Which is why they are explicitly there for DM use for NPCs, not for PC use. It says it right in the book.

 

[jgbrowning]

Sales figures have a strong correlation with gaming group acquisition. Gaming group acquisition has value.

Sales figures and "Is it popular enough so I can find a group" are two very different things, IMO. The first is unimportant for fans if the second is experientially true. I don't suspect that people who want to play 4e are having any harder a time finding a 4e group then people back in 2001 who wanted to play 3e had any difficulty in finding a 3e gaming group. Moreover, unless one has the context within which to place an actual sales figure, that number is useless. Fans don't know the business and can't place numbers in context.

In my experience, many fans are only interested in sales numbers so they can use them to beat up other fans with. Many people seem to find a sense of identity, importance and superiority in knowing that the game they enjoy is selling better than that *other* game. Just like some fans find the same thing by playing "indie" games just because they're indie or other fans take pleasure in the fact that a new edition of a game isn't selling as well as the edition they like did.

It's because of people like the above, that I generally don't talk business with fans. Many gamers aren't like the above, but quite a few are and they tend to be very vocal and seem almost bent on spoiling the hobby for those of us who just want to play.

joe b.

 

[Darkwolf71]

3e's core books came out staggered, so there was no (immediate, at least) gift set to compare to. Compare the 4e gift set + MM totals to the 3e MM totals to get a better picture.

I don't think 3.5 had a prominent gift set, either, but I could be wrong.

Good point, and also another reason that the core books aren't really a good benchmark for the topic. Direct comparisons are difficult at best.

 

[xechnao]

Moreover, unless one has the context within which to place an actual sales figure, that number is useless. Fans don't know the business and can't place numbers in context.


joe b.

It is a question of probabilities. Regarding sales for example in people's minds there are probabilities regarding kinds of relations. The more informed one is about the business the better he can guess the future of certain results but even the function of this "betterness" is also probabilistic too up to a subjective point.

 

[Thasmodious]

Again, jumping the gun…Tell me what benefit a squishy, low hp controller has in trying to multi-class into fighter or paladin classes. Will he be able to be an effective defender? Or is he basically worthless in that role?

Are you kidding? 4e pulled off the wizard/fighter, whereas 3e never did. By your last two questions it seems you might not understand 4e multiclassing well. Multiclassing is not about acquiring a second role, its about gaining benefits from another class. The benefits for a squishy, low hp controller are many. First squishy and low hp are relative. They can still take a few hits, have 2 less starting hp than strikers, and 1 less per level, a lot of which can be mitigated by toughness (a very viable choice for a wizard/fighter). With a focus on close burst spells, a good str, and an armor feat or two, the wizard/fighter is in great shape. With utilities like expeditious retreat and dimension door they can stay as mobile as strikers or with shield, blur and mirror image they can get a big boost to AC (on top of their light armor and high INT).

And it plays well. My dwarf wizard/fighter is a load of win. He added crushing blow to his powers at 4th level, wields a craghammer and a wand. He loves to charge into the middle of large groups, drop a color spray and a thunderwave, smack the big bad with crushing blow, then E-retreat or D-door away if needed. And he's more than once stood over the fallen defender and battered away on a big bad, using thunderwave to clean house if he gets surrounded.