D&D 4E Another math crunch and how fix 4E

[Bayuer]

MONSTERS MATH

14+lv	12+lvl	5+lvl	3+lvl		
AC	DEF	vs.AC	vs.DEF		
15	13	_6	_4		
16	14	_7	_5		
17	15	_8	_6		
18	16	_9	_7		
19	17	10	_8		
20	18	11	_9		
21	19	12	10		
22	20	13	11		
23	21	14	12		
24	22	15	13		

25	23	16	14		
26	24	17	15		
27	25	18	16		
28	26	19	17		
29	27	20	18		
30	28	21	19		
31	29	22	20		
32	30	23	21		
33	31	24	22		
34	32	25	23		

35	33	26	24		
36	34	27	25		
37	35	28	26		
38	36	29	27		
39	37	30	28		
40	38	31	29		
41	39	32	30		
42	40	33	31		
43	41	34	32		
44	42	35	33

Statistics taken from DMG p.184 (Skirmisher).
Hitting DEF will be greater than the numbers showing. Lurker +1, Artilery, Soldier +2, only the Brute have -2 less to hit, than the numbers in table.

PCs MATH

+4S(+2 prof)		+3Dex+Hide	Plate	+3 ABL	+1 ABL
vs.AC	vs.DEF		AC(L)		AC(H)	DEF(M)	DEF(L)
_6	_4		16		18	13	11
_8	_6		18		20	15	13
_8	_6		18		20	15	13
_9	_7		19		21	16	14
_9	_7		19		21	16	14
10	_8		20		22	17	15
11	_9		21		24	18	16
13	11		23		25	20	17
13	11		23		25	20	17
14	12		24		26	21	18

14	12		24		26	21	18
16	14		26		29	23	20
16	14		26		29	23	20
18	16		28		30	25	21
18	16		28		31	25	21
19	17		29		32	26	22
20	18		30		34	27	23
21	19		31		35	28	24
21	19		31		35	28	24
22	20		32		36	29	25

23	21		33		36	30	26
25	23		36		39	32	28
25	23		36		39	32	28
26	24		37		40	33	29
26	24		37		40	33	29
27	25		38		41	34	30
28	26		39		42	35	31
30	28		41		43	37	32
30	28		41		43	37	32
31	29		42		44	38	33
AC(L) - Light Armor
AC(H)- Heavy Armor
DEF(M)- DEF Middle
DEF(L) - DEF Lowest

The key atribute is rainsing at 8,14,21,28 (full +1)
With DEF low it only rises on level 21, couse we rise primary and secondary stats.
Enchament bonus goes on level 2,7,12,17,22,27.
Hide Armor gives masterwork +1 on level 22.

What all this number gives to us?
HITTING THE MONSTERS AC
On heroic we have adventage of +1 to hit, that comes to +0 at the end of heroic tier.
On paragon the gap is showing making to hit at -1 to -2 at the end of tier.
On epic it comes from -2 to -3 at the end of tier.

HITTING THE MONSTER DEF
It's the same as above.

---
So the higher level we are, the harder time we have hitting the monsters. If we take max. stats that will make our hit at +1/+2 higer; +1 on DEF. But then our DEF will be drastically low.
---

HITTING THE PLAYERS AC (LIGHT ARMOR)
On heroic monster have adventage of +1 to +0, so it's fair.
On paragon it's from +2 to +3 at the end of tier.
On epic it goes to +3 at the end, with single boost at the beginnig of tier to +1.

HITTING THE PLAYERS AC (HEAVY ARMOR)
The monster has disadventage of -1 (sometimes even -2).
On paragon this continues in the same way.
On epic it jump from -1 to +1 at the end of tier.

---
So if we don't max our light armor AC we will be hit offten. We will probably start with 18 (+4) in our light armor stat and if we go for light armor or defensive weapon we will have the AC compared to high armor AC so that's not bad. Remeber that there's also Armor Specialization that is nice for Light Armor and not so needed for Heavy armor.
---

HITTING THE PLAYERS DEF
Our middle DEF is like this.
On heroic monster have adventage of +1 to +2 at the end of tier.
On paragon it jumps to +3 and it ends at +4.
On epic it then rise to +5 at the end of tier.

Our lowest DEF.
Heroic from +3 to +5.
Paragon from +5 to +8.
Epic from +8 to +10 (monster miss only when he rolls 1 on die!)

But here's come the trick. Monster that usualy attack DEF are Artilleries whose hit is +2 more that I take for this calculation. What with our best DEF. It wil be +3/+4 higher than mid DEF (+2 class and 18 in atribute).
Heroic goes with monster disadventage from -2/-1.
Paragon from +0 to +1.
Epic will be +1 to +2.

---
So we can't max our PCs. That's not possible and I think it's ok, but the gaps are too large. Even our best DEF is easy to be hit, and on epic nasty effects like domination or stunn comes into play. Our lowest DEF is instant kill for us.
---

Solution?
Give players +1 to attacks and defenced (other than AC) on paragon tier, this bonus will incrase to +2 on epic tier. Only feat that will be banned will be Weapon/Implement Expertise. Epic DEF feats are needed if you want to make your lowest/middle def more optimal. Also players gain for free one Epic defense feat (Epic Wiil/Reflex/Fortitude). That will make your lowest DEF at +4 (of monster adventage) - he must roll 6 on die to hit. This also will give options to players which defense feats to take and none will be banned.

Another approch is to just give players feats for free. One Weapon/Implement Expertise on 5 lvl. Paragons Defenses at 11 level (or another paragon defense feat). Robust Defenses (or any other epic defense feat) and one Epic FRW feat at epic tier. That will make the math work as intended (well almost as intended) and will be easy to make with Character Builder.

So what do you think? Will it be the final solution for math problems?

 

[KarinsDad]

So what you think? Will it be the last solution to math problems?

Your math ignores some things.

1) The delta between ability scores that gain every time and ones that gain only at levels 11 and 21 is huge at high level for defenses. This is compounded by the fact that defenses can have a delta as great as 7 to begin with at first level.

2) Armor needs no adjustments. Both light and heavy armor gain the same +27 by level 30. Light armor actually has a slight edge over heavy armor at some levels. Your chart has armor increasing by 28, but that is only with specialization which is not guaranteed. Your chart also starts Dex out at 16 with is not as common as an 18. Hide armor is typically 1 less than Plate at level 30, but it is also typically 1 less at level 1 as well.

Rationally, light armor should protect less than heavy and a delta of 1 at both low and high levels is not that large of a delta (and with Demigod, the delta can be zero, Demigod does not help Plate armor at all).

3) Encountered monsters at all levels are often higher level than the PCs. Hence, one cannot compare PC to hit with monster defenses of the same level and hope to achieve anything. One must compare PC to hit against the range of monster defenses that the PCs can expect to encounter at their level.


The best solution I have come up with is:

1) +1 at levels 5, 15, and 25 to PC to hit and PC defenses (except AC).
2) +1 to 3 ability scores instead of 2 ability scores at levels 4, 8, 14, 18, 24, and 28.
3) No PHB II expertise or +4 defense feats.

 

[Elric]

2) +1 to 3 ability scores instead of 2 ability scores at levels 4, 8, 14, 18, 24, and 28.

This solves the "decreasing weakest defense" problem, but could present a host of other issues. It makes qualifying for feats much easier and removes the tradeoff between boosting AC and a secondary attribute for some classes (melee rangers who stay in light armor).

However, some of this could be seen as features and not bugs- it makes it much less important to plan your character progression when taking initial ability scores. It also makes the "balanced Paladin/Cleric" a much more viable build.

3) No PHB II expertise or +4 defense feats.

I'd definitely ban Robust Defenses, the epic feat that gives +2 feat bonus to Fort/Reflex/Will, as well, if you made the other changes.

 

[KarinsDad]

This solves the "decreasing weakest defense" problem, but could present a host of other issues. It makes qualifying for feats much easier and removes the tradeoff between boosting AC and a secondary attribute for some classes (melee rangers who stay in light armor).

However, some of this could be seen as features and not bugs- it makes it much less important to plan your character progression when taking initial ability scores. It also makes the "balanced Paladin/Cleric" a much more viable build.

It also incentivizes players to take skill training feats because they are not limited to 2 good ability scores at higher levels.

I'd definitely ban Robust Defenses, the epic feat that gives +2 feat bonus to Fort/Reflex/Will, as well, if you made the other changes.

Yes. All splat book feats are considered bannable. However, most are not that bad, just situational.

 

[Elric]

It also incentivizes players to take skill training feats because they are not limited to 2 good ability scores at higher levels.

Thinking about it some more, adding +1 to three ability scores has other nice effects: you can play a Con/Cha warlock who stays in light armor without having your AC scale terribly to higher levels, since you'll be able to boost Int as well. Likewise, the Con Shaman can stay in light armor; his AC won't be good, but it won't scale horribly.

The biggest downside I can foresee is characters qualifying for feats they weren't meant to take without significant sacrifice- e.g., a Battle Captain qualifying for Supreme Inspiration (MP).

 

[Bayuer]

Your math ignores some things.

1) The delta between ability scores that gain every time and ones that gain only at levels 11 and 21 is huge at high level for defenses. This is compounded by the fact that defenses can have a delta as great as 7 to begin with at first level.

No I inculeded it! I just forget to write about it.
The key atribute is rainsing at 8,14,21,28 (full +1)
With DEF low it only rises on level 21, couse we rise primary and secondary stats.
Enchament bonus goes on level 2,7,12,17,22,27.
Hide Armor gives masterwork +1 on level 22.

2) Armor needs no adjustments. Both light and heavy armor gain the same +27 by level 30. Light armor actually has a slight edge over heavy armor at some levels. Your chart has armor increasing by 28, but that is only with specialization which is not guaranteed. Your chart also starts Dex out at 16 with is not as common as an 18. Hide armor is typically 1 less than Plate at level 30, but it is also typically 1 less at level 1 as well.

Yes I started with that in calculations, but I know that mostly it will come from 18 or even 20. I just try to show things goes if you don't maximize you AC related stat. So the light armor is ok if you know how to max it.

3) Encountered monsters at all levels are often higher level than the PCs. Hence, one cannot compare PC to hit with monster defenses of the same level and hope to achieve anything. One must compare PC to hit against the range of monster defenses that the PCs can expect to encounter at their level.

The rules are for the same level monsters. If you fight against higher level moster fight should be harder. Thats how I see it. On the same level it should be equal.

The best solution I have come up with is:

2) +1 to 3 ability scores instead of 2 ability scores at levels 4, 8, 14, 18, 24, and 28.

That will prevent from low DEF lacking behind but I don't know if that not too much ingerence in math. I like simple and clear solutions that don't impact terribly on game, and rising third stat is one of them.

 

[KarinsDad]

The rules are for the same level monsters. If you fight against higher level moster fight should be harder. Thats how I see it. On the same level it should be equal.

Yes, it should be harder to hit. The problem is one of degree. When one faces a level 5 monster at level 1, the PC has a 45% chance to hit. When one faces a level 33 monster at level 28, the PC has a 30% chance to hit.

So if the hit points were equally raised compared to the average damage as PCs gain levels, then it takes 50% longer to finish the encounter (45%/30% = 1.5 times as long). Unfortunately, the problem is even worse than this since the hit points increase significantly faster than average damage.

If one only looks at same level monsters, the problem is not as apparent.
When one faces a level 1 monster at level 1, the PC has a 65% chance to hit. When one faces a level 28 monster at level 28, the PC has a 50% chance to hit. So, the encounter number of rounds only increases by 30% (65/50), not 50 (45/30).

The higher the level of the opponents, the greater the math problem becomes because hitting the NPCs becomes rare and hitting the PCs becomes very common.

That will prevent from low DEF lacking behind but I don't know if that not too much ingerence in math. I like simple and clear solutions that don't impact terribly on game, and rising third stat is one of them.

You have no solution if you do not fix the delta between low defense and high defense problem. That is a math problem which cannot be fixed by adding a linear amount to all defenses.

Adding +1 to a third stat is a simple solution that works with Character Builder.

Another solution would be to add +1 at levels 5, 15, and 25 to the weakest defense. That will solve the delta problem as well without impacting ability scores.

But, if you do not solve the delta problem, you are only solving part of the problem.

 

[KarinsDad]

The biggest downside I can foresee is characters qualifying for feats they weren't meant to take without significant sacrifice- e.g., a Battle Captain qualifying for Supreme Inspiration (MP).

I don't really see that as a downside. WotC is not a perfect arbitrator of complete balance (as evidenced by the math problem). Prerequisites could just as easily been defined differently and nobody would be any wiser. I don't care if a PC qualifies for using a Shield at level 21 that the PC would never have been able to qualify for.

Most of these extra feat qualifications that you discuss will not become available until higher levels (mid-paragon or higher) anyway. At those points, having more abilities or options for the PCs is no big deal anyway.

There will always be power gamer options in the game. Adding in a few more doesn't really matter. What matters is when all of the PCs are getting screwed at high level because WotC screwed up the math. I'd rather fix the math problem and have a few feats sneak in than not fix the math problem and have my campaign disintegrate at high levels due to 30 round encounters.

 

[Bayuer]

Yes, it should be harder to hit. The problem is one of degree.
You have no solution if you do not fix the delta between low defense and high defense problem. That is a math problem which cannot be fixed by adding a linear amount to all defenses.

Adding +1 to a third stat is a simple solution that works with Character Builder.

Another solution would be to add +1 at levels 5, 15, and 25 to the weakest defense. That will solve the delta problem as well without impacting ability scores.

But, if you do not solve the delta problem, you are only solving part of the problem.

I don't even try to fix delta. I'm just trying to make the highest DEF to fit to the math (make it 50% hit rate as I showed above). The weak NADs still need to be fixed by feats and I think it's just fine as it is.

 

[KarinsDad]

I don't even try to fix delta. I'm just trying to make the highest DEF to fit to the math (make it 50% hit rate as I showed above). The weak NADs still need to be fixed by feats and I think it's just fine as it is.

By 30th level, the weak defenses are down by 7 minimum, by 14 maximum, by 11 on average.

By 30th level, the strong defenses are down by 4 minimum, by 4 maximum, by 4 on average.

Your solution is to add 2 to all defenses (except AC).

That basically works ok with the strong defense, but does nothing for the weak defense.

If a PC's weak defense is down by 5 at level 1 (compared to his strong defense, -2 for class and -3 for 12 instead of 18 ability score, total level 1 defense 11) and down by 12 at level 30, your solution will only make it down by 10 at level 30. The same level "other defense level +4" 30th level monsters will still hit it on a 2. The PC will have to take for example Lightning Reflexes AND Epic Lightning Reflexes, just so that the same level monster still hits on a 7 (Weak Defense = +2 14 ability score, +6 magic, +15 level, +2 paragon feat, +4 epic feat, +2 your house rule = 41, 30th level monster is +34 to hit).

A Paragon feat and an Epic feat, just so that the same level monster hits 70% of the time instead of 95% of the time. Required. If the PC does not take the Epic feat, he will always get hit 95% of the time with that defense.

A higher level monster is back up to hitting 80% to 95% of the time, even with the two feats. Your solution does not resolve the problem and forces every player to take the two feats at least once (and possibly for a second semi-weak defense).

My solution puts this at the same 30th level monsters hits on a 5 without any feats (it is hits on a 6 at level 1, regardless of solution). It also incentivizes players to start 3 ability scores at 14 or higher to handle the defenses since they know that the weak ability score can gain +4 instead of +1. The weak ability score is useful for other things like skills and powers, even at high level, so the player might start the weak starting defense at 12 or higher.