Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral

[danbala]

I would rather compare PHB2 to 3.5 PHB instead of "complete warrior".

I feel like these chart games we are having here are a bit stupid (my dad is stronger than yours or something like that)

There is some logic to it. The question is whether 4e is a "failure." The only definition we have of success is 3.0/3.5 (no one would call that edition a commercial failure). So it seems like our best way to guess at the "sucess" of 4e is to compare it to 3e.

Wasn't there a 3e PHB2? Did that make the best sellers list? Did any 3e books besides the core books make the list? If not, that would be strong evidence that the 4e strategy of serial core books is working.

(I acknowledge that there are other possible explanations such as 3e having more robust competition if non-fiction books in general were selling more in the past or for similar reasons).

 

[f33b]

The obvious conclusion then would be that many roleplaying books have made the list in the past, right? After all, if the PHB2 didn't sell that well and managed to only beat "Who Moved My Cheese," then a 3.5e book like "The Complete Warrior" or "Draconomicon," both of which sparked an entire series, should have at least made the list, right?

Let's take a look. Here's an archive for the list:

New York Times Best Seller List

The Complete Warrior was released in November of 2003. It was the first major supplement for 3.5e and is widely considered to be extremely successful- as evidenced by the conintuation of the Complete Series for the next five years.

I'm betting you can already guess where it is on the list.

1. This means nothing without sales data on the titles you reference.
2. The archived lists only contain the top 15, so not even the PHB2 would appear in the archives.

 

[Agamon]

Appreciating (and agreeing with) this comment is, I think, the first positive thing I've ever taken away from reading that book.

Or even this thread.

 

[Kask]

Wasn't there a 3e PHB2? Did that make the best sellers list?

Again, not apples to apples. In 4.0 they split up what would normally be in a 1st PHB & made 2 PHBs. Neat mktg ploy though. Better would be to compare PHB, MM & DMG sales after one year for both editions.

 

[Thanlis]

1. This means nothing without sales data on the titles you reference.
2. The archived lists only contain the top 15, so not even the PHB2 would appear in the archives.

Here's some fun data on the various PHBs and the USA Today bestseller list.

3.0 PHB: three weeks in the top 150, peaked at #45.
3.5 PHB: two weeks in the top 150, peaked at #57.
4.0 PHB: four weeks in the top 150, peaked at #47.
4.0 PHB2: one week in the top 150, peaked at #28.

Oh, hey, MM and DMG!

MM 3.0: 2 weeks, peaked at 58.
MM 3.5: 1 week, peaked at 112.
MM 4.0: 1 week, peaked at 143.

DMG 3.0: 2 weeks, peaked at 58.
DMG 3.5: 1 week, peaked at 92.
DMG 4.0: 1 week, peaked at 128.

And:

4.0 Core Gift Set: 2 weeks, peaked at 57.

Figure some number of DMs just bought the core set, which might explain why the 4.0 PHB did better but the MM and DMG did worse. Or it could be something else entirely.

However, no matter how the books are performing relative to the best-seller list, we can't draw conclusions about absolute numbers. So it's still possible that absolute numbers are down. On the other hand, if relative numbers are up, that'd mean D&D as a brand is outperforming book sales as a whole. Which is good. Good enough? Don't ask me, I don't have the raw numbers to look at.

 

[darjr]

Are there any numbers for the raw sales of books for each time frame? That would go some way to make the comparison more concrete.

 

[Puggins]

1. This means nothing without sales data on the titles you reference.
2. The archived lists only contain the top 15, so not even the PHB2 would appear in the archives.

1) It would mean nothing if I claimed that PHB2 outsold any 3.5e supplement. But I didn't. I was refuting Rodrigo's casual claim that making the top 15 in non-fiction is not at all remarkable. That no 3.5e supplement made it implies that the top 15 is a bit harder to crack than he would imply.

2) Since PHB2 is #14 in the non-fiction list, it will indeed appear in the archives.


And no, I don't recall any 3.5e supplement cracking the top 15 in non-fiction. But hey, I could be wrong. Anyone know which was the most popular 3.5e supplement?

 

[Mournblade94]

I have my doubts as well... well, at least taking into account that Green Ronin and Paizo aren't even remotely the same size as each other!

Now, comparing Paizo to late TSR, maybe. I don't have any numbers, but my gut feeling is that Paizo is still smaller than TSR, but at least in the same league. Green Ronin is very small. At it's height I doubt they had more than 5 or 6 full time employees - which, I have to say, looking at the quality of products they have is a real testament to how great and hard working they are.

Yeah probably not true. I probably should have said same league. In any case I think Paizo will grow with the fractured D&D market. Paizo certainly has talent hired that is as good as when WOTC started taking over TSR.

Green Ronin has some of the highest quality bound books on the market. THat is why I included them (I haven't researched company size really) I think their binding quality at least outshines mongoose. Even the WFRP is not as well bound as Green Ronin books.

 

[lutecius]

So while some people seem to hope and pray for the demise of 4e, it really requires some convoluted logic and reinterpretation of data and events to come to the conclusion that 4e is dying.

4e being successful is good for everyone in the RPG business and our hobby- I really don't understand the hatred and conspiracy theories some people seem to keep pumping out and are obsessed with. We all win when the gaming industry is strong, and we all lose when its not.

I read that a lot from posters on both "sides" but... how so?

I mean, I don't know how well 4e is doing (neither does anyone here I think) and I'm not praying for its demise or obsessed with it, but how is a game i dislike being successful good for me?

The better it sells, the more it will influence other games and the longer i'll have to wait for a new edition (possibly one I do like.)
4e isn't "the gaming industry" and if it fails and nothing takes its place (which I doubt) I'm still not losing anything.

If D&D has a slow death wherein interest in the game falls off slowly, I think it will have a *negative* impact on *all* other table top RPGs. As D&D dies off, a majority of people would probably not be switching to other RPGs, but would instead be leaving the market. This would reduce the viability of brick and mortar game stores, reducing channels of exposure for other RPGs.

The end of flgs would be sad but wouldn't necessarily mean the end of rpgs. The internet gives more exposure to obscure games than brick and mortar ever did and Amazon sales have often been touted as proof of 4e's success. Actually, e-commerce is far more likely to put local stores out of business than dnd's failure.

 

[Ace]

my pot from over there

Now as to the WOTC thing. The suits weren't too smart. It makes WOTC look like the RIAA and organization 1st up against the wall -- you know the rest. It will stop people from putting up watermarked PDF's on Scribd or something but so what? OCR software is everywhere

As for the sales drops -- 6 reasons

#1 and the big one

The US and most of the world are in a depression. A lot of the main market is broker than usual. The unemployment rate among young people, 4e's main market is scary.Even those with jobs are cutting back.

The rest in no particular order

#2 A good chunk of the market is fragmented. Sure people play 4e but lots still play 3x, 2x, and older editions and have no intention of "upgrading" . I suspect more than a few 4e players have gone rero-clone too

#3 Yes piracy, kinda. Books are functionally free now Most marginal buyers don't need to buy. In the past they'd bum a buddies book and if it really clicked might buy it. Now the download it and unless they use it all the time there is no reason to buy

#4 Smaller Market. Its not a lazy Saturday in 1981, There are a lot more things to do now. Tons of choices that didn't exist then, many of whom provide the sam experience as mediocre gaming. Poeple play TTRPG's because they want to play TTRPG's not because they are bored and have nothing better to do. Even when they want to game they can play all sorts of things free and legal. The Runequest and Traveller and D20 SRD's are enough for hundreds of hours of gaming. Throw in free stuff like Pathfinder and the OGL wiki and you'd never need buy a book.

#5 Its not that much fun for some people. This is entirely subjective and you can love it and be right and I can dislike it and be right but I suspect many gamers see little value in the 4e rules set.The fluff is great but the game is well its -- heck I'll say it. Its a mini wargame with RPG elements. OK I know that 1e was too but it was all we had (till I switched to Runequest) Compared to 3x (especially my modestly houseruled version) 4e is a strait jacket

#6 Saturation. Lots of people bought tons of 3e and are full up.