Necromancer Games-update by Orcus

[JoeGKushner]

I disagree. I absolutely think it could be above 50%, and I think a lot of folks do as well. And given you were trying to give a range of guesses, I think it would be fair to represent at least the guesses represented here. In this thread we have seen guesses as high as 80% I believe. So, 5% to 80% is a more representative range I'd say, with no suggestion that it is some sort of average or anything but just pure guesses.

But what are people buying?

That's the question at the end of the day.

If people are split 50/50, then Paizo is going to become huge. Their print runs are not as large as WoTC. Everything they print should be out of print almost instantly.

I don't think that's true.

I think that a lot of the systemless stuff goes through multiple printings, like for example, the flip matts and tiles.

But are the print runs increase with every path? With every adventure? With every sourcebook?

 

[BryonD]

But given the lack of publishers for 4e (at least print products cause I honestly know nothing about how the PDF side of things goes), how can that be an accurate statement. That's like putting someone on an abandoned island and then claiming that they won't eat pizza. You can't buy what hasn't been produced.

I have heard repeated statements from 3PPs that 4E stuff does not sale.
Comments in the OP via Clark back that up.
The only reason there is no pizza is the guy didn't buy the first dozen that were offered and now all the pizza shops moved to other places.

Edit: And Goodman does more than modules. They've done the Orc sourcebook for GMs and a Dragonborn sourcebook for players. In addition, they have several more such books coming (Eladrin and Tielflings next.)

If Goodman, known for their adventurers, can make it in the supplement market, it seems that well regarded supplements from the previous editions would also be easy sellers.

How did these items sale?



Post 3.5 it was rough but Necromancer could get stuff distributed.
Post 4E, it appears, either he can't or it is at least much more difficult.

 

[BryonD]

I think you're missing the mark here. I don't disagree that the 3pp market is very dry - I just think the ball was rolling before 4e was even announced and the GSL issues.

Before the 4e announcement, 3pps weren't producing very much for D&D - again, with the exceptions of Goodman and Paizo. Certainly, the print market was minimal at best - Necromancer was already declining, looking at their release schedule. Not much was being sold, either, IIRC, especially if you look at the print market.

Two of biggest 3pp's - Mongoose and Green Ronin - had already branched out, seeing the writing on the wall. Mongoose was doing about a half-dozen things at once, while GR was very focused on M&M and True20. Yes, both produced materials for D&D, but I don't know if those paid the bills.

Basically, I think the die was cast before the 4e announcement. The GSL fiasco just prevented a hoped-for rebirth of an already-dying market.

My two cents...

-O

Why?

Why are joyous 4E fans not buying the 3PP product that is out there?

If 4E fans were buying Mongoose would sell to them.

You are saying that the market is dead because there is no one interested in offering supply. If there was a demand, the supply would emerge. My point is, the demand is not there. You can not blame companies for not making products that don't sell.

Both Mongoose and GR have made it clear that they are staying with the lines they see as the best business choice. Why is M&M a better seller for GR than 4E? Or, at least, why are they placing their bets that way?

Why doesn't someone else emerge to replace these companies?

My point is that 4E players do not buy (not enough). If I am wrong, someone will sell to them. Thing is, I'm not wrong.

 

[crazy_cat]

We don't know how split the fanbase is, and the only people that could give us a reasonable estimate (WotC) won't. It ain't 5%, and it ain't 50%, but it lies somewhere inbetween.

But it's enough to generate a huge ammount of support for the Pathfinder line. Two years after the announcement of 4th ed (and what should have been the deathknell for 3rd ed 3pp), Paizo has grown from 2 magazines to a line of cards, books, adventures, adventure paths, licensed minis and more. They have subscriptions for not only their Adventure Paths (the direct inheritors for the old magazines) but for maps, cards, stand alone adventures and campaign setting materials.

And ALL of that is before their own set of rules hit the shelves.

When someone asks "how fragmented is the D&D fanbase?" my answer would have to be "enough".

Well said.

 

[Obryn]

Why?

Why are joyous 4E fans not buying the 3PP product that is out there?

If 4E fans were buying Mongoose would sell to them.

Mongoose tried with ... what was it, a Quintessential book with shady mechanics and a kind of odd and mostly systemless new setting?

The Quintessential product line was already pretty debased by late 3.5, so I'm not too surprised about its lackluster performance. (Additionally, did they even advertise it? I didn't hear about it until well after it came out, and I'm on several boards every day. And when I did hear about it, it was generally along the lines of how bad it was.) Wraith Recon, from all accounts, had pretty much no mechanics and was pretty lackluster. Again, not something I'd use as a predictive example.

You are saying that the market is dead because there is no one interested in offering supply. If there was a demand, the supply would emerge. My point is, the demand is not there. You can not blame companies for not making products that don't sell.

That's ... not the way it works. Demand does not create supply, generally. It can create opportunities, but someone has to take those and run with them.

I see no reason why an excellent setting along the lines of Arcana Evolved, with interesting new mechanics and a new flavor, wouldn't sell. There are a lot of people anxiously awaiting 4e Earthdawn, and a vocal population waiting for a 4e(ish?) Freeport. You can't blame fans for not buying products that don't exist.

Both Mongoose and GR have made it clear that they are staying with the lines they see as the best business choice. Why is M&M a better seller for GR than 4E? Or, at least, why are they placing their bets that way?

GR and Mongoose have both made it abundantly clear that selling their house system is a much better bet than selling for a system that's not theirs. Pramas has written pretty eloquently on this, as have folks from Paizo. Simply put, for a publisher, it's way better to control all aspects of your business. (See: the 3.5 apocalypse for third-party publishers.)

If a company can afford to do so, it's much safer to become a first-party publisher - or else to make products which can be adapted to new systems quickly and easily. (Like Goodman did, and like Paizo still does with many system-neutral products.)

Why doesn't someone else emerge to replace these companies?

Well, for starters, because - like I said - the market itself was shot well before 4e was announced.

Frankly, even for third-party publishers, the market is way different than it used to be. White Wolf got into the mix early by releasing a monster manual before WotC's own - something that won't happen again. Green Ronin made a splash by making (IIRC) the first available modules for 3e. Not so here, either.

The economic situation is far different, too. Third party materials weren't selling well before 4e was announced, so the distributor network has cold feet regarding them, new edition or no. There are new demands in the print industry involving rising costs and changes in bookstores. The quality bar is much higher, now, too - early d20 materials could sell with just a color cover and staples; nowadays fans expect better art and better editing, even from the smallest third parties, increasing production costs. Fans are more demanding, too - look at the gap in production values from Relics & Rituals to World's Largest Dungeon, Wilderlands, and Ptolus. And yes, the late GSL hurt a lot, too.

Most of the companies who were still around at the end of 3.5 were either some of the first out of the gate with quality products, or else got a leg up in some other way. Green Ronin was one of the first. S&S was up there, too. Mongoose, as well. (I have no info on Necromancer - sorry!) Goodman's products are probably among the least expensive to produce, so they're fine regardless. Malhavoc had Monte Cook and financial ties to White Wolf, not to mention a well-earned reputation for sound products. Paizo was the publisher of Dungeon and Dragon - a huge advantage on their competition. These are generally companies who were able to either build capital early on, or else had a leg up somehow. They could compete with WotC on quality, and their success showed it.

You can't just look at 2000 and look at now and say, "Well, why the heck isn't this happening again?" because the situation is frankly not even remotely similar - especially for a new company.

My point is that 4E players do not buy (not enough). If I am wrong, someone will sell to them. Thing is, I'm not wrong.

Again, complaining that people aren't buying things that aren't being offered is ... shady.

-O

 

[thecasualoblivion]

We don't know how split the fanbase is, and the only people that could give us a reasonable estimate (WotC) won't. It ain't 5%, and it ain't 50%, but it lies somewhere inbetween.

But it's enough to generate a huge ammount of support for the Pathfinder line. Two years after the announcement of 4th ed (and what should have been the deathknell for 3rd ed 3pp), Paizo has grown from 2 magazines to a line of cards, books, adventures, adventure paths, licensed minis and more. They have subscriptions for not only their Adventure Paths (the direct inheritors for the old magazines) but for maps, cards, stand alone adventures and campaign setting materials.

And ALL of that is before their own set of rules hit the shelves.

When someone asks "how fragmented is the D&D fanbase?" my answer would have to be "enough".

Any fragmentation of a fanbase can be "enough" if the disenfranchised minority includes you. You being in the disenfranchised side doesn't necessarily pertain to the health of D&D as a whole.

 

[Jack99]

Why?

Why are joyous 4E fans not buying the 3PP product that is out there?

If 4E fans were buying Mongoose would sell to them.

My point is that 4E players do not buy (not enough). If I am wrong, someone will sell to them. Thing is, I'm not wrong.

Maybe Mongoose isn't selling because the stuff they produced has been mostly horribly broken.

You are saying that the market is dead because there is no one interested in offering supply. If there was a demand, the supply would emerge. My point is, the demand is not there. You can not blame companies for not making products that don't sell.

I agree, and it could still happen. GG seems to be expanding their repetoire, so maybe... /shrug

Both Mongoose and GR have made it clear that they are staying with the lines they see as the best business choice. Why is M&M a better seller for GR than 4E? Or, at least, why are they placing their bets that way?

As Paizo has stated, there is a certain value to doing your own thing. Also, some might think that it is better to be the top dog/only producer for a small crowd of people than be one small fish amongst many others.

Why doesn't someone else emerge to replace these companies?

Was GR and NG so big and famous in 2001 already? I must admit that I wasn't paying attention to 3PP stuff at that time, so I do not recall. But 4e is still only 1 year old, lots of things could happen.

 

[Jack99]

Also, and this is just my personal opinion of course, but many might share it, the stuff that WotC produces is just head and shoulders above what they produced for 3.x. Sure, there is some debate regarding the forgotten realms campaign stuff, but the rest has been very well received. Dragon is about a 100 times more balanced and useful (the crunch anyway) than before. All in all, maybe there is just less need of 3PP's than before.

Could they improve certain areas? Yes indeed, not everything is perfect. But it's definitely far better than during the last edition, IMO, YMMV, ETC.

Cheers

 

[BryonD]

Mongoose tried with ... what was it, a Quintessential book with shady mechanics and a kind of odd and mostly systemless new setting?

The Quintessential product line was already pretty debased by late 3.5, so I'm not too surprised about its lackluster performance. (Additionally, did they even advertise it? I didn't hear about it until well after it came out, and I'm on several boards every day. And when I did hear about it, it was generally along the lines of how bad it was.) Wraith Recon, from all accounts, had pretty much no mechanics and was pretty lackluster. Again, not something I'd use as a predictive example.

Ok, so Mongoose tried and failed....
And there are probably other factors involved in that one failure.

And yet, they don't try again.
They expect that everything else they are publishing will sell better 4E stuff? Why would they think that?

Or they are choosing to sell products that will produce fewer sales? Why would they do that?

That's ... not the way it works.

Actually, it is.

Demand does not create supply, generally. It can create opportunities, but someone has to take those and run with them.

Of course, and people seeking to sell profitable products go to where demand is. It isn't like the D&D 3PP field is a secret. Publishers are aware of it and are choosing to stay away.

I see no reason why an excellent setting along the lines of Arcana Evolved, with interesting new mechanics and a new flavor, wouldn't sell. There are a lot of people anxiously awaiting 4e Earthdawn, and a vocal population waiting for a 4e(ish?) Freeport. You can't blame fans for not buying products that don't exist.

Define "a lot". I (again) agree that ENWorld is a good place to come and find 4E fans who want 3PP.

GR and Mongoose have both made it abundantly clear that selling their house system is a much better bet than selling for a system that's not theirs. Pramas has written pretty eloquently on this, as have folks from Paizo. Simply put, for a publisher, it's way better to control all aspects of your business. (See: the 3.5 apocalypse for third-party publishers.)

If a company can afford to do so, it's much safer to become a first-party publisher - or else to make products which can be adapted to new systems quickly and easily. (Like Goodman did, and like Paizo still does with many system-neutral products.)

If they could make big bucks selling 4E, they would.

Well, for starters, because - like I said - the market itself was shot well before 4e was announced.

The 3X market was. The 2E market was shot when 3E was announced.
But the results are very different. I'm not saying this because 4E doesn't have the boom that 3E had. That standard isn't even in the picture.

The economic situation is far different, too. Third party materials weren't selling well before 4e was announced, so the distributor network has cold feet regarding them, new edition or no. There are new demands in the print industry involving rising costs and changes in bookstores. The quality bar is much higher, now, too - early d20 materials could sell with just a color cover and staples; nowadays fans expect better art and better editing, even from the smallest third parties, increasing production costs. Fans are more demanding, too - look at the gap in production values from Relics & Rituals to World's Largest Dungeon, Wilderlands, and Ptolus.

Ok, so explain why Clark made his comments about Necromancer's plans.

And yes, the late GSL hurt a lot, too.

Agreed.

Most of the companies who were still around at the end of 3.5 were either some of the first out of the gate with quality products, or else got a leg up in some other way. Green Ronin was one of the first. S&S was up there, too. Mongoose, as well. (I have no info on Necromancer - sorry!) Goodman's products are probably among the least expensive to produce, so they're fine regardless. Malhavoc had Monte Cook and financial ties to White Wolf, not to mention a well-earned reputation for sound products. Paizo was the publisher of Dungeon and Dragon - a huge advantage on their competition. These are generally companies who were able to either build capital early on, or else had a leg up somehow. They could compete with WotC on quality, and their success showed it.

You can't just look at 2000 and look at now and say, "Well, why the heck isn't this happening again?" because the situation is frankly not even remotely similar - especially for a new company.

Are there enough 4E fans wanting to buy product?
I'm not expecting a re-run of the OGL.
This is night and day.

Again, complaining that people aren't buying things that aren't being offered is ... shady.

-O

There has been product. There is nothing shady in what I have claimed.

 

[ST]

Here's the biggest problem with this: WotC both changes people too much (over time) and seems to have way too many cooks in the kitchen making these decisions. The people making decisions today may not even be there tomorrow. Scott may be the perfect champion for what you want, Clark. But he also may be working somewhere else tomorrow (or win Powerball or something). If he's the only champion on the business side, forget any hope of Wizards being the inclusive D&D producer.

That's an excellent point. I'd add that corporate structures being what they are, my guess is that the relevant Wizards employee will either:

a) Stay in that position, thus having someone with interest and motivation to do something in the position, but not the organizational clout to actually get it done, or

b) Be moved to another position, whereupon he no longer is able to act on it.

The way you get things done in a large corporation is by getting promoted up the ladder, at which point the things you originally cared about are out of your hands.

The OGL was a heck of a thing but it was a fluke that it ever happened at all. I honestly think expecting "good behavior" out of a corporation is just wishing on a star.