Dice Rolls
I thought that I had noticed a trend in my dice rolls lately and I wanted to confirm it. Thanks to the technology of invisiblecastle.com, I am able to track every single roll I've made since I started playing L4W / LEB. I then took those numbers and averaged them. Here is an interesting sort-of trend I've noticed:
1st adventure: Mervin, L4W
adventure average roll: 10.75
total crit success/fails: 3 / 2
2nd adventure: Unit 16, LEB
adventure average roll: 8.5
total crit success/fails: 1 / 2
3rd adventure: Unit 16, LEB
adventure average roll: 7.33
total crit success/fails: 1 / 2
4th adventure: Mervin, L4W
current adventure average roll: 9.89
total crit success/fails: 0 / 1
5th adventure: Empathy, L4W
current adventure average roll: 6.84
total crit success/fails: 0 / 3
6th adventure: Unit 16, LEB
current adventure average roll: 6.8
total crit success/fails: 0 / 2
Notice that the numbers generally keep heading down? Also, notice the disparity between natural 20s and natural 1s?
Here's another way to look at it:
total (all adventures) average roll for Mervin: 10.61 (57 d20 rolls)
crit success/fail: 3 / 3
total (all adventures) average roll for Unit 16: 7.71 (35 d20 rolls)
crit success/fail: 2 / 6
total (all adventures) average roll for Empathy: 6.84 (25 d20 rolls)
crit success/fail: 0 / 3
Here's a final tabulation:
total average across all characters (117 rolls): 8.94
crit success/fail: 5 / 12
Obviously, anything between 10 and 11 is pretty average. And to be fair, more dice rolls = probably going to be closer to average over time.
BUT I MEAN COME ON! Sheesh. In particular, the disparity between 1s and 20s is rather disheartening. I know it's just two numbers and they both have a 5% chance to come up, and they are both within statistically reasonable levels for such a small sample size, but man - it's still hard to watch. My poor psychic character has such an especially horrible track record that I honestly don't know how well she plays.
In the end, this is a good lesson in why I do not have a gambling problem. At least I'm lucky in love?