I think that in the first round Dancey would come out strong, utilising Power Attack in combination with Weapon Focus and Weapon Specialisation. His Armour Class would be high because of Dodge so that would probably frustrate Mearls in his attempts to counter-attack.
30-27, going to Dancey.
The second round, however, would be much closer. Mearls would've found his range with his At-Wills, and would now wisely utilise an Encounter Power to even the odds. Dancey would still be strong because of a solid strategy but he would be repeating the same attacks and defences from the previous round. This round, however, I see Dancey getting a critical blow against Mearls because of his higher threat range.
29-28, going to Dancey again for almost winning the bout with a telling blow.
This is where things take a turn for the worse for Dancey. Using a Healing Surge for his Second Wind, Mearls recovers quickly. Looking to finish the fight, Mearls is going to set Dancey up, being able to easily predict Dancey's moves since they're the same as the first and second round. Utilising an Action Point, Mearls would position Dancey using an Effect that dazes so that he can get Combat Advantage on his follow-up Daily Attack.
Mearls wins by submission, rear naked choke.