The suggestion (
http://www.enworld.org/forum/genera...nity-i-think-ive-figured-out.html#post5413160 ) that "to stay relevant" D&D has to be played mostly by adolescents seems to me unfounded. The notion that it has to be traded in for something like a computerized RISUS (or whatever "Minimal" mattcolville had in mind) is even more bizarre, being apparently contrary even to the first!
Gygax and Arneson and most of the rest of the gamers who got the hobby started were not little kids. They were not averse to children playing, either -- Gygax's were the first play-testers of his version. The Basic/Expert Set cover blurb, "For 3 or More Adults, Ages 10 and Up", seems right on to me.
I think that getting stuck in the ghetto of "just for adolescent boys" is about as bad for paper-and-pencil games as it was for video games. What that does is
shrink the market!
It certainly doesn't make D&D a video game. The closest you can get to that is
actually to make a video game and slap the D&D name on it. "Burning down the village to save it" really just means you've got one village less.
S. John Ross is not exactly sweeping the teen set with his "Here's some arbitrary dice rolls, now you make up some $#!%" pamphlet. Kids
already know how to play "let's pretend" or social-network themselves into online collaborative story-telling groups. If that's what they want,
they've got it!
It's mainly old farts who are ready to fork out filthy lucre for such stuff, and not a lot at that. RISUS, for example, is free. So is FUDGE, and at least one version of FATE, and tons of other "indie RPGs" that kids generally don't know or want to know about.
I'm not seeing Hasbro-level profits there, and at any rate I'm not seeing how "D&D" has jack to do with luring people who don't give a fig about D&D (much less about that "indie RPG" scene).