On WotC's "Surge"

[Mercurius]

So let's say that DDI becomes not only the focal product of D&D, but where the majority of new material is published. What then would be published as paper products? What we we actually see in book form? I see a few possibilities:

*New core rulebooks. These could be rolled out every 3-5 years as "cross-sections" of the ever evolving game. Or they could be more frequent but as micro-changes - simply new printings. Everything is compatible, everything part of a continuum - and everything referring back to DDI as the primary, and most up-to-date, source document - but you can choose whether or not to buy the latest printing or version. This might include table reference books like Rules Compendium. If they were to keep to the core three and maybe one or two others, this would average 1-2 a year, maybe less.

*Setting and theme stuff. This sort of thing doesn't translate as well to the Compendium, Character Builder, etc. This is the type of thing you want to sit down and read. Maybe one a quarter.

*Box sets. These could be mega-adventures, campaign settings, stuff with a lot of tokens or other gimmicks. Maybe one a quarter.

*Compilations and Annuals. There would still be room for "best ofs" not unlike the Dragon and Dungeon Annuals but more specific: compilations of, say, magic items or feats even monsters might fit into this category. These might be few and far between and maybe only one or two yearly.

What would not be printed are typical splats (Power books), maybe some of the monster books, treasure books, etc.

So under my speculations, we'd be seeing roughly one new book or box set a month - a mixture of core rulebook reprintings/revisions, setting/theme books, box sets, and annuals/compilations.

What do you think? Does this make sense?

 

[Dausuul]

Desperation or just being proactive? The thing is NO RPG is ever just 'thriving'. For all its successes TSR destructed itself with great thoroughness. What you did last quarter is history, what you'll do next quarter is a hope, what you do THIS quarter pays your bills. You could sell 500 great products one year and if you don't have another lineup for this year, and designed to meet this years customer's needs, it means squat. What you find is that there's always a scrambling, always a struggle. You can never rest on your accomplishments, and you can never assume that doing more of the same thing will produce the same results it did before.

Granted, they can't just do the same thing year in and year out. But if you've been doing well, you build on your successes. You don't throw a bunch of stuff out and start over.

Take Essentials. If WotC were doing well with 4E, I would have expected to see the Essentials classes rolled out as a new optional splatbook--"Exciting Variant Builds For Your Favorite Classes!" If that book became popular, they would build on it and make it bigger, but it would start out as an adjunct to the main line, where support for it could be quietly dropped if it turned out not to be what people wanted.

Instead, Essentials is the New Core! It's the face of D&D from here on out. WotC has bet the farm on it--if Essentials tanks, they're not going to be able to just quietly migrate back to 4E classic. That's a risky move, the sort of thing you do when things are going badly and you need a game-changer.

Then there's the Character Builder migrating to an online app, with Adventure Tools to follow; the cancellation of DDM; half their upcoming book releases being canceled... it all screams "Abandon ship! Abandon ship! Women and Mogs first!"

 

[caudor]

I agree, it appears that WotC is thrashing about. Successful companies don't tend to do that.

It could very well be that Essentials did not produce the desired outcome. Heads rolled (or are going to roll).

Another explantion for the seeming thrashing behavior is changes in leadership (perhaps at levels we are not even aware of).

New bosses -- new visions. Too many layers of bosses -- too many visions.

I'm not sure if recent events represent a financial problem or a corporate politics problem.

 

[Saracenus]

Or, they just give you print on demand and eBook options for offline needs. The fluidity of the rules (errata, updates and eContent) make it difficult to publish under the old model of PH, MM, DMG.

I see the the Rules Compendium as a step towards providing a solid skeleton to flesh out with e-offerings and selected print products. I will be we will see more tactile (stuff you can touch) products like maps, tokens, cards and other physical items being drivers for physical products while more and more of the crunch and fluff of D&D moves online.

I will bet the money is going to come from monetizing the support products like Character Builder, Adventure Tools, and the new Virtual Table.

This is going to be very interesting to watch because if they fail the reverberations when the 800 lb. gorilla in the room falls down will be tremendous.

Hold on to your hats...

 

[ggroy]

Another explantion for the seeming thrashing behavior is changes in leadership (perhaps at levels we are not even aware of).

New bosses -- new visions. Too many layers of bosses -- too many visions.

I'm not sure if recent events represent a financial problem or a corporate politics problem.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if most of Bill Slavicsek's waking hours is dealing with internal politics at WotC/Hasbro, and shielding Mike Mearls et al from such politics.

If Slavicsek has recently lost some of his political power/cache at WotC/Hasbro, this may possibly explain some of the recent abrupt changes and thrashing around. Individuals with more political power than him, may be overruling or vetoing him.

 

[Dausuul]

I'm not sure if recent events represent a financial problem or a corporate politics problem.

My guess would be that weak finances are driving a lot of political infighting. Unfortunately, the infighting is likely to make the financial problem worse--at a time when the company really needs to pull together and commit to a coherent new strategy, it's lurching around wildly instead.

Of course, I may be reading too much into it. But canceling planned releases is a bad sign, especially when it's done in a haphazard fashion like this.

 

[AbdulAlhazred]

@AbdulAlhazred: Are things really always shifting, or does the company that makes D&D latch on to one strategy or another and live off it till it dies? Gobs of modules in the 80s, vast amounts of campaing stuff in the 90s, minis and lots of mostly player oriented hard backs in the 00s.

I guess the question is, have the yfound the next big thing, the interwebs, were they have had issues for years? Or will it be something else.

Eh, we'll find out sooner or later...

So let's say that DDI becomes not only the focal product of D&D, but where the majority of new material is published. What then would be published as paper products? What we we actually see in book form? I see a few possibilities:

*New core rulebooks. These could be rolled out every 3-5 years as "cross-sections" of the ever evolving game. Or they could be more frequent but as micro-changes - simply new printings. Everything is compatible, everything part of a continuum - and everything referring back to DDI as the primary, and most up-to-date, source document - but you can choose whether or not to buy the latest printing or version. This might include table reference books like Rules Compendium. If they were to keep to the core three and maybe one or two others, this would average 1-2 a year, maybe less.

*Setting and theme stuff. This sort of thing doesn't translate as well to the Compendium, Character Builder, etc. This is the type of thing you want to sit down and read. Maybe one a quarter.

*Box sets. These could be mega-adventures, campaign settings, stuff with a lot of tokens or other gimmicks. Maybe one a quarter.

*Compilations and Annuals. There would still be room for "best ofs" not unlike the Dragon and Dungeon Annuals but more specific: compilations of, say, magic items or feats even monsters might fit into this category. These might be few and far between and maybe only one or two yearly.

What would not be printed are typical splats (Power books), maybe some of the monster books, treasure books, etc.

So under my speculations, we'd be seeing roughly one new book or box set a month - a mixture of core rulebook reprintings/revisions, setting/theme books, box sets, and annuals/compilations.

What do you think? Does this make sense?

Yeah, more or less. I mean who knows what the details will be, but put out material that basically supports DDI. You will still be able to play even without DDI, but you'll miss some material entirely and what you do get will come later and more intermittently. Of course they can always put out plenty of things like Threats, which is a whole package with an adventure, some maps, pogs, and a monster book/setting material.

As for why would you make big changes if you are doing well, yes, it is true, many companies just sit around doing what they have always done when times are good and only make chances when forced.

HOWEVER, if you have truly savvy business leadership with a deep understanding of the evolution of the market you are in and a sense for how to move forward you instead make your move from a position of strength because well, it is a stronger position to move from. Suppose for a moment that the people over there at WotC in charge of D&D now ARE the visionaries. Suppose they got exactly what they wanted. Maybe some of these books like MME and Heroes of Sword and Spell etc were things they agreed to in order to get what they really wanted. So Bill is up there in his office saying "OK, they let us put more budget into DDI and Essentials did pretty good, we have our core print books for the online future now. Time to cancel those white elephants, we'll just tell corporate that we will roll the content into DDI and we can use the money we save to accelerate development on that. Hmmm, Heroes of Shadow... We'll make that a hardback, people will still buy it and the profit margin is higher. Lots of people want that material and it is genuinely new to 4e. Secretary! Take a memo..."

I mean I don't know squat, but it fits the facts as well as anything else. Big changes are coming in the business, they know they need to move sooner or later. They've come off a decent year and put some pieces in place. Now the new leadership can actually throw its weight around a bit, clear the decks of the legacy of the past, and get right onto the new thing while they have cash in the bank and credibility. I know if it was me in there I'd sure want to be getting a move on that. Your fortunes could be at their highest (even IF not sky high) and if you wait a year or two of slowly declining sales Paizo or someone will beat you to the punch and corporate will be laughing at requests for a bigger budget to play catch up.

 

[Dice4Hire]

What do you think? Does this make sense?

Box Sets, yes.

Compiling DDI stuff into books and selling it. I don't think so.

Narrowly focused books like that seem a lot easier to ignore and such. Also, how would they look on the shelf? Not too good, I think. Now if they started selling that stuff as PDFs........ maybe.

 

[Dausuul]

I mean I don't know squat, but it fits the facts as well as anything else.

No it doesn't. You don't cancel planned and announced releases if you're on track and doing well! If everything were going according to plan, the canceled books would never have been announced in the first place.

There's a difference between "planned change" and "panicky flailing." This has all the hallmarks of the latter. Sudden cancellations, botched and hasty rollouts of electronic material, a massive bet on an untested offering... the last time D&D looked like this was in the mid-90s, and we know how that turned out.

All is not lost yet (I hope!), but Dancey's "death spiral" prediction is looking more true every day. Best-case, the changes they are making right now just happen to be exactly what's needed; the ship is righted and the money starts rolling in. Or some angel company waiting in the wings swoops in to save the day, like WotC itself did with TSR. But there's no guarantee of either.

 

[Trebor62]

I am wondering if the Class Compendium was cancelled to keep the PHB1 from being obsolete. If the Class Compendium was bringing the PHB1 class up to current errated and essentials standards what need for the original heavily errated and updated PHB1 books. I suspect there maybe a lot of PHB1 outthere that would have eventually found there way back to WoTC as never going to sell.

Maybe someone with more knowledge of the publishing industry could comment on this angle.