On WotC's "Surge"

[Primal]

From Perram:



I'd like to believe this. Can you provide any quotes/evidence from official or semi-official sources?

Because last I heard (and this could be dated) was that Paizo was nowhere close to the size of WotC, in sales or in size.

Thanks!

From Perram:



I'd like to believe this. Can you provide any quotes/evidence from official or semi-official sources?

Because last I heard (and this could be dated) was that Paizo was nowhere close to the size of WotC, in sales or in size.

Thanks!

Here are links to ICV2 Quarterly Top 5 ranks:

ICv2 - Top 5 RPGs--Q3 2010
ICv2 - Top Five RPGs--Q1 2010
ICv2 - Top 5 RPGs--Q2 2010
ICv2 - Top Q4 2009 Roleplaying Games

ICV2 collects this data from hobby stores; as you can see, the latest report shows that Pathfinder and 4E are 'tied'. Naturally, ICV2 does not gather any data from internet sales. WoTC does not have an online store, but Amazon and Paizo are probably the biggest stores that sell their products; and while it's anecdotal, I have been observing Amazon's RPG sales for a few years now (at least a few times per week). My impression is that even if Pathfinder isn't selling as much as 4E, it's a close call. Finally, I think Paizo's CEO Lisa Stevens posted on these boards that, based on the data she has at her disposal, the latest ICV2 report is pretty accurate (I'm too lazy to dig up the post, but perhaps someone else could do that for me )

However, although I love Pathfinder, I still don't want Paizo -- or any other publisher -- to gain the rights to D&D. I truly wish WoTC will get its act together; at the moment they seem to be in panic, and I have a feeling Hasbro has given WoTC some sort of ultimatum (it's very likely that Hasbro is not happy with their current profits). I mean, why else would there be board games, cancellation of the miniatures line, collectible Fortune Cards, previews of products that are for some reason pulled on the eleventh hour, etc. As someone else recently said on these boards, they seem to be throwing all sorts of stuff around to see what sticks.

 

[Scribble]

I find this theory interesting, as Paizo also has digital offerings, a CB, a free SRD, and a subscription based model... that seems to be flourishing along with their book sales. If this is true I wonder if it speaks to WotC not knowing how to successfully integrate the digital and physical products very well... sort of like how DDM and D&D didn't really integrate well for the roleplayers needs.

Possibly-They could have underestimated the popularity the DDI would have-

Their information might have told them that gamers indicated that they wanted digital products, but not as a replacement for physical products, but their actions ended up saying differently.

It could also have been that they were sort of stuck...

Gamers demanded the digital tools, and would have been pissed if they were lacking the info needed to make them useful, so knowing all along it would eat into sales, they just hoped not that much, or miscalculated how much?



Also don't forget that when it comes down to it, it could be the very people who they calculated would have supported the book sales in addition to the digital ended up going to Paizo, and this was unexpected.

It could also be that Paizo's digital offerings aren't as able to be a replacement in the same way as the DDI (I don't have any of them so I don't know.)

 

[TerraDave]

On minis: they sold cases and cases of those things to role-players. It was the skirmish game that died first.

Then cost went up, quality down, and now there are several places on the web where you can buy the singles without have to get a random box.

I think this secondary market that really fueled the "buble". As it gave people buying bunches a place to offload the excess (and there was a time when you could almost always make money off the secondary market) which led to just a lot of excess.

 

[Dausuul]

Possibly-They could have underestimated the popularity the DDI would have-

I have a slightly different read on it. The original plan for 4E was to have a big digital component right out of the gate--remember Gleemax and all the hoopla over the VTT? Of course, as we all know, the company Wizards hired to build these wonderful things failed to deliver on their promises, and Wizards had to bring it all back in-house and (guessing here) pretty much start over from scratch.

In essence, they originally planned to go digital. That failed and they fell back on their old model from 3E. Now, with the old model going downhill, they're making a hasty bid to resurrect the digital plan in hopes that it can be made to work after all.

 

[Aberzanzorax]

Another point, to bring it back to the OP... let me first quote the end of his post.

For years to come we have a balance of online offerings and a careful mix of books and boxes and cards.

While we're comparing WotC books and Paizo books, something we have to consider as well is the anecdotal accounts of 4e fans who say "I don't bother to buy the books, I use the online tools."


So, in a very real sense, WotC's digital initiative has moved some customers from paper to pixel. Perhaps some of what we're seeing now (both the weirdness from WotC, including their cancelled print, and the competitiveness of Paizo books with WotC books) is due to D&DI.


So, yeah, I do think WotC is going more digital...what that MEANS, for themselves, for the hobby, and for Paizo is, I think, still up in the air.

 

[Scribble]

In essence, they originally planned to go digital. That failed and they fell back on their old model from 3E. Now, with the old model going downhill, they're making a hasty bid to resurrect the digital plan in hopes that it can be made to work after all.

Well- like all things I think there are a lot of complications involved...

I have a few ideas- but if I post them, I have a feeling it would trigger a long debate, that I don't have time for.

In short I get the feeling a lot of it has to do with an attempt to change to meet a changing market, combined with an older portion of the market that tends to hate change no matter what, along with a way for that market to loudly fight change.

 

[TerraDave]

...While we're comparing WotC books and Paizo books, something we have to consider as well is the anecdotal accounts of 4e fans who say "I don't bother to buy the books, I use the online tools."


So, in a very real sense, WotC's digital initiative has moved some customers from paper to pixel. Perhaps some of what we're seeing now (both the weirdness from WotC, including their cancelled print, and the competitiveness of Paizo books with WotC books) is due to D&DI.

Right, how much is this a response to competition from others, as we have discussed for the last couple of pages, or from themselves.

The speed at which they have moved from books into boxes, and their anti-piracy efforts, indicates that DDI is a big part of it.

 

[TerraDave]

One more thing on minis: its was the one product they could, in theory, keep selling to the 3.5 holdouts...over even fans of other FRPGs.

Ouch.

 

[Scribble]

One more thing on minis: its was the one product they could, in theory, keep selling to the 3.5 holdouts...over even fans of other FRPGs.

Ouch.

Maybe the theory proved untrue?

 

[Primal]

One more thing on minis: its was the one product they could, in theory, keep selling to the 3.5 holdouts...over even fans of other FRPGs.

Ouch.

Yeah, but as has been already said, I guess they have saturated the market. I'm one of those "holdouts" (a Pathfinder GM) who has started collecting minis just a couple of years ago, and these days I'm spending around 100-150 USD per month on them. Even if the price went up and the quality is a bit worse, I still consider them worth it; but, I've also noticed that it's probably better start buying singles online instead of randomized boxes. Yet I'm really sad about this announcement!

I guess Dungeon Tiles -- which is another product line that can be sold to fans of other RPGs -- are more profitable than minis? Although no wonder; IMO WoTC is lightyears ahead of Paizo when it comes to battlemaps/tiles. I've been really happy about reprinted tiles, because I missed them the first time, and I think they've been doing smart designs decisions with this product line; I just can't wait for Witchlight Fens or Caverns of the Icewind Dale.