Scott Thorne, a retailer, comments on recent events

[UngainlyTitan]

I just want to toss in a different spin, suppose Gleemax and the original digital tools had been a complete technical success, would WoTC still be selling books in the numbers they were up to now?

 

[Wicht]

Something else interesting to ponder: If you check out the Amazon top-selling RPGs right now, Paizo's Bestiary 2 is at #1. The Pathfinder Core book is at #3. The current top selling 4e book is at #6. The Player's Handbook (4e) is at #8, outperforming the Redbox which is at #9.

 

[jefgorbach]

[MENTION=9734]francisca[/MENTION] True and I suspect you're correct in WOTC is moving to 95% digital, with just the Core books available in print to lure new players. The past few years have seen them take several steps in limiting player's access to information (PDf's, free articles) in favor of moving things behind a monthly subscription plan and associated virtual play. The recent discontinuation of physical minis is thus simply yet another step in this metaplot.

One thing I find curious is nobody's mentioned the "unexpected" announcement coincided with the recent rises in oil prices (ie plastic costs) and the recent news regarding Border's continuing decline. While they do have exposure at B&N's, local observations regarding the two stores implies losing Border's could have a serious impact upon WOTC's print sales (based upon apparent foot-traffic, product placement and copies carried). Combined, these external factors made the perfect timing for WOTC's "unexpected" announcements ... although management's decision to do so solely via their monthly Ampersand column is obviously a poor one.

 

[DaveMage]

Something else interesting to ponder: If you check out the Amazon top-selling RPGs right now, Paizo's Bestiary 2 is at #1. The Pathfinder Core book is at #3. The current top selling 4e book is at #6. The Player's Handbook (4e) is at #8, outperforming the Redbox which is at #9.

I've watched those rankings go all over the place - even in the span of 48 hours, so I wouldn't put too much stock in them. (Though I am very happy to see Pathfinder ranking highly anyway.)

 

[Wicht]

I've watched those rankings go all over the place - even in the span of 48 hours, so I wouldn't put too much stock in them. (Though I am very happy to see Pathfinder ranking highly anyway.)

They are certainly fluid. But they are useful for spotting trends, especially as you look at them over a period of time. I must admit its been a few months since last I checked Amazon's list and it would be interesting to know how long Pathfinder has been outperforming 4e on a day to day basis (which is what these lists really shows - a snapshot of what is selling right now).

 

[francisca]

[MENTION=9734]francisca[/MENTION] True and I suspect you're correct in WOTC is moving to 95% digital, with just the Core books available in print to lure new players. The past few years have seen them take several steps in limiting player's access to information (PDf's, free articles) in favor of moving things behind a monthly subscription plan and associated virtual play.

yeah that's just "Business 2.0" at work in the boardroom, as they seek to reap profits from the persistently connected masses. A company that large would be off their freakin' rockers not to try market to that audience.

 

[DEFCON 1]

Seeing a dearth of product on the shelves may just confirm that suspicion is some people's minds, and they may not bother to pickup the last few products of (in their mind) a dying game.

A dearth of products? Where exactly are you going?

I go to a very large Barnes & Noble in a suburb outside of Boston, and in the RPG section the top three shelves are CRAMMED with D&D stuff, in addition to a 3'x3' table next to it displaying a pile of Essentials material.

Wizards could cancel their entire year's worth of new D&D product and you'd never know it, because of the size and volume that all the Essentials stuff takes up alone. Three different Dungeon Tiles boxes (of which there's about a half-dozen copies of each), Monster Vault, DMs Kit, Gamma World... you can't NOT see D&D product at your fingertips. Throw in additional copies of all their other hardcovers, trade paperbacks and module/adventure sites... and you'd think WotC were making millions based on shelf space alone.

You know where the precious Pathfinder Core, Advanced, and Bestiary books are? Bottom shelf... one copy of each... mixed in amongst the Shadowrun, Star Wars Saga Edition, and Mutants & Masterminds books. Throw in a couple leftover hardcovers like Warhammer Fantasy Roleplay and one or two World of Darkness... and you'd never know Pathfinder was some kind of wunderkind in certain people's minds.

If you were to ask someone who knows nothing about the industry which company seems to be in dire straights based purely on what is found on the shelves... it sure as heck wouldn't be WotC.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

The problem with these comparisons - and why they're so tiresome - is that New Coke lasted months. Less then half a year.

Actually, point of fact: New Coke was sold for seven years- 1985-1992- before it had it's name changed to Coke II, under which name it was still for sale as late as 2006.

The point of the New Coke comparison is- at least in my posts- that you can do all kinds of market research and still get it wrong if you:

1) Don't ask the right questions or ask the right questions the wrong way
2) Accidentally get skewed data due to sampling error
3) Misinterpret the data you get

...all of which happened in the New Coke saga. People preferred New Coke over not just Coke, but more importantly, surging rival Pepsi (and Dr. Pepper) in test after test after test. It wasn't even close. Coke thought this meant it was time to replace the old formula. In reality, though, while people may have wanted that New Coke flavor in the market, they didn't want it as a replacement for Coke's traditional recipe.

Looking back, we can see if they had released New Coke into the market ALONGSIDE the traditional recipe- thereby not alienating the base- they'd have done much better. We might not even have Pepsi around as a major force in the market today.

WotC DID do market research, that much is clear, but judging from the size and depth of the rift between adopters and non-adopters of 4Ed, at least some of the same factors may be present here. Their data showed that a sampling if people wanted D&D to change...and fairly radically. What it may not have shown is how many did not. At least, not as a substitute for 3.5Ed.

 

[Wicht]

If you were to ask someone who knows nothing about the industry which company seems to be in dire straights based purely on what is found on the shelves... it sure as heck wouldn't be WotC.

I would readily admit that it is easier to find WotC products in the major retailers. What this does not tell me is how well it is selling. A plethora of stock is only a good thing if demand is high. The fact that Paizo has a hard time keeping books on the shelf could mean they are not as well known or it could mean they are so popular that when the one of their books hits the shelf it gets snatched up.

The trend, in sales, indicates to me that demand for 4e is dropping and demand for Pathfinder is increasing. When one couples this trend with the reality that WotC has an easier time with distribution than Paizo does, it is even more impressive.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

But my FLGS staff, retailers as it were, are the last people on this earth I turn to when looking for accurate gossip on how things are going in the business and in the hobby.

Fair enough, bit IMHO, there's a significant difference between the opinions of staff and the observations of owners who get to see where all of the dollars and cents are going...or NOT going.

Not that they're infallible, no- I know of a former movie rental store owner who thought DVDs were no threat to the VCR market...