Scott Thorne, a retailer, comments on recent events

Mercurius

Legend
Danny, if you're saying that WotC bungled the release and marketing of 4E, I agree. If you're saying that 4E was too far removed from "traditional" D&D, I somewhat agree. If you are saying that 4E should not have been different from traditional or 3.5 D&D, I disagree.

The main mistake that WotC made, imo, was in releasing a half-baked product, not in making 4E significantly different from 3.5; "half-baked" in that it not only still had a lot of kinks to be worked out (not to mention errata), but it seemingly wasn't playtested widely with little to no communication with fans about what 4E was going to be. It was almost as if they were either not interested in what the diehard fanbase thought and/or they were so sure that we'd like it that they wanted it to be a kind of secret present. Bad move. Sort of like not asking a family member what they want for Christmas and then getting them something you think they might want. It is a risk, even a calculated one, but with a high chance of error. And the rest is history...

But the marketing and PR is a very different issue from the quality of the game itself, which can be teased apart into (at least) two major aspects of "presentation/vibe" and "game system." A further mistake that WotC made, I think, was trying too hard to change the presentation/vibe to cater to what they thought "kids these days" were into. But in the end it was little different than a bunch of 45-year olds trying to be hip around a bunch of 20-year olds. At best it is awkwardly cute; at worst it is just embarrassing.

But the game system itself, imho of course, was a step forward from 3.5. It was (and is) actually a better game (again, imho) - a further development in the evolution of D&D. The problem is that it had huge flaws that were only partly addressed by Essentials, some of which remain.

Now it may be that 5E, such as it will be, will actually be first published digitally. If WotC plays their cards right they can release it via DDI and then get feedback and evolve the game with a kind of feedback mechanism and only publish it in paper form after a year or so of back-and-forth with the core customer base. Sort of like Pathfinder's Alpha and Beta books, but instead via DDI. Maybe "5E Alpha" can be DDI only and released over a period of time as modular options for 4E; that would also assure that it remained at least somewhat backwards compatible. "5E Beta" might come a year later as a roughish draft PDF of a proposed new Player's Handbook for DDI susbscribers, which would be published after another year of playtesting, proofreading, and customer feedback.

If WotC wants to kill two birds with one stone--get customer feedback thereby pleasing customers and make some money--then they can offer a higher tier subscription service, an "inner circle" that gives the individual an avenue of communication and feedback so they can be part of the process of playtesting and commenting on the new rules. Just imagine the advertising for this service: "Be part of the next edition of the greatest game in the world!"
 
Last edited:

log in or register to remove this ad

Dedekind

Explorer
I'm skeptical about any statements about market share.

WotC is one of the few companies competing in multiple products and so you can't just compare book sales. Furthermore, Essentials is a product aimed outside (though useful to) the current market. Again, you can't compare traditional demand measures because nobody else has Target/Wal-mart sales and the population will not likely, at first, be in the FLGS. Finally, WotC has focused heavily in the digital format which necessarily will not be seen by the distributors or the FLGS.

Yeah, it looks fuzzy from the supply chain perspective, but I bet the old supply chain represents a shrinking percentage of sales.
 

Banshee16

First Post
For me, I have no way of knowing mr. Thorne's track record in predicting the development of the business of publishing RPGs.

But my FLGS staff, retailers as it were, are the last people on this earth I turn to when looking for accurate gossip on how things are going in the business and in the hobby.

I don't know how many times I've heard things about lines being cancelled and not being cancelled and whatnot from "trusted sources" of FLGS staff. This time it might be that the doom and gloom are warranted, but until the apocalypse arrives my motto is "don't borrow trouble. And don't take much heed of madmen and game store staff." :p

Cheers!

/M

Pundits get it right...50% of the time :) Even the guys who get paid the big bucks to predict things. It's just that we tend to remember the times that they're right, and forget the times that they're wrong.

My FLGS owners (two separate chains of stores owned by different people) have both commented that Pathfinder and 4E seemed to split their customer base pretty much right down the middle. Both commented that 4E was selling well....but so was Pathfinder. For that matter, even at my local Chapters, each system gets a shelf. And in those FLGS's, the two systems get pretty much equal shelf space. 4E gets a little more, but only by virtue of there being more 4E books on the market....or rather, a larger proportion of hardcovers (which take up more space) vs. the soft cover adventure paths and accessory books Paizo sells.

That is by no means scientific though. It's just....4 stores in my city? And it's not exactly a big city, so by no means indicative of larger market trends.

Banshee
 

billd91

Not your screen monkey (he/him)
The point of the New Coke comparison is- at least in my posts- that you can do all kinds of market research and still get it wrong if you:

1) Don't ask the right questions or ask the right questions the wrong way
2) Accidentally get skewed data due to sampling error
3) Misinterpret the data you get

...all of which happened in the New Coke saga.

Along with Dannyalcatraz's excellent points above, I'd add that another good point of comparison is in the power of brand identification. When Coca-Cola brought out New Coke, they were surprised by the vitriolic reaction of a minority of customers who rejected New Coke. They had not realized how successful their branding efforts had been, nor how specific. Customers identified themselves with the Coke brand and, with New Coke that identification was being changed to something they didn't recognize as the Coke they knew.
I would say that there are elements of the D&D divide that remind me of the Coke/New Coke identification issue.
 

Wednesday Boy

The Nerd WhoFell to Earth
That, combined with over 100 pages of errata for their book line, are the reasons why I think WOTC is losing so much ground to Paizo, and I am looking forward to seeing how their futures play out.

Personally I love that they go through stuff that doesn't work well and fix it with errata. I much prefer taking the time to check for errata than to play a game that doesn't work well.
 

Solvarn

First Post
The problem with these comparisons - and why they're so tiresome - is that New Coke lasted months. Less then half a year.

4e has gone for two years now. Wait, more, now.

If customers were streaming and bailing out as fast as some people seem to think they were, I really think it wouldn't have lasted as long as it has.

The competition is a lot less intense, and the media drove the story a lot more. I don't expect to see anything about WotC's woes anywhere. I think the comparison is fairly apt.
 

shadzar

Banned
Banned
The problem with these comparisons - and why they're so tiresome - is that New Coke lasted months. Less then half a year.

4e has gone for two years now. Wait, more, now.

If customers were streaming and bailing out as fast as some people seem to think they were, I really think it wouldn't have lasted as long as it has.

I think you need to look closer at the analogy of "New Coke".

New Coke came out and people didn't like it they moved to Pepsi.

4th edition came out and people didn't like it, they moved to Pathfinder.

So the initial thrust is where the company noticed the biggest hit and made the decision sooner to backpedal and "try" to fix things. It just took WotC those years worth of time you mention to try to bring out their Coke Classic via Essentials.

I say the analogy works VERY well. You just have to look at them not in exact times, but time in relative terms of the products. Ask yourself, now that the time has passed, is Essentials WotC's Coke Classic?

WAY off topic as to not telling retailers and such, but I just want to support the New Coke analogy as I see it fits also.
 

ProfessorCirno

Banned
Banned
You mean the Essentials products that were an announced part of the business plan when 4e first came out? Because I'm fairly certain "following the plan we made" and "backpedaling ferociously" are the opposite :hmm:

I suppose if you claim 4e will die any day now for the entirety of 4e - which is exactly what has been happening - you'll get it right eventually. By the same token, Nostradamus totally foretold 4e and it's end!
 

darjr

I crit!
You mean the Essentials products that were an announced part of the business plan when 4e first came out? Because I'm fairly certain "following the plan we made" and "backpedaling ferociously" are the opposite :hmm:

I suppose if you claim 4e will die any day now for the entirety of 4e - which is exactly what has been happening - you'll get it right eventually. By the same token, Nostradamus totally foretold 4e and it's end!

Essentials was planned from the very beginning? I don't recall that at all.

I was very adamantly following the announcements and was very involved with 4e when it was coming out and I don't remember that bit.
 

Ourph

First Post
The trend, in sales, indicates to me that demand for 4e is dropping and demand for Pathfinder is increasing. When one couples this trend with the reality that WotC has an easier time with distribution than Paizo does, it is even more impressive.
This is why I find the predictions and speculations being thrown around lately so ridiculous.

Poster A: WotC book X sold through it's first print run right away. They obviously have no confidence in their books selling. WotC is doomed!
Poster B: WotC isn't printing new copies of book X because they have several years of backstock. Their core books obviously aren't selling. WotC is doomed!

Poster A: WotC just announced something I don't like. They hate their customers! I'm going to complain about it for a week. WotC is doomed!
Poster A (different day): WotC isn't making announcements about their future plans. They hate their customers! I'm going to complain about it for a week. WotC is doomed!

Poster A: WotC is reducing their release schedule for 2011. They won't have a physical presence in bookstores. WotC is doomed!
Poster A (different day): WotC has lots of books on the shelves in 2011. Sales must be stagnant compared to their competitors. WotC is doomed!

Conclusion: WotC is not doomed. :erm:
 
Last edited:

Remove ads

Top