The PHB DDI GAP!

[TerraDave]

Mr Dancy has reminded us of the huge sales of the 3.0 PHB. Even if the 4E PHB hasn't done as well, it still must have sold in the hundreds of thousands.

The DDI, estimates range from 45,000 to, lets say, 80,000, but clearly there is a big difference between the two.

Presumably, these non-DDI PHB buyers would be natural candidates to buy other books. And they do exist, I have one in my group! He has multiple books and no DDI or CB. Like 3E.

But between the gap doesn't just lie casual players with only the PHB and some with more books. There are also those non-current DDI subscribers who have the CB. Lets say they dropped their subcription. Lets say.

If they are players, they don't really need any more books or DDI.

And thats the trouble with the gap.

 

[DEFCON 1]

The hardest part about trying to quantify any of this is simply that we won't ever really know 1) The difference between how much all DDI subscribers would spend on books in a year versus paying a year's subscription, and 2) How much difference there is between the profit WotC takes in from a book sale versus a year's subscription.

Without knowing those two things, we will never really get a good handle on just how successful or unsuccessful 4E will end up being. How many books does a normal player buy in a year? How many do they buy if they also subscribe? How many books does a player skip because they subscribe and get the info via DDI? How many of those lost books sales get offset by the subscription fee? How many people who don't subscribe to DDI buy enough books in a year such that the profit WotC makes on those sales is more than the price of a year's subscription?

So many questions that really only the WotC bean-counters and higher-ups really know the answer to.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

So many questions that really only the WotC bean-counters and higher-ups really know the answer to.

If they do. Sometimes, its amazing what companies don't know about their own business.

 

[shadzar]

If they do. Sometimes, its amazing what companies don't know about their own business.

Today? Not really.

I am guessing here, and been trying to make sense after first reading the OP, that in regards to CB, it refers to those using the downloaded version and not needing the online one as they aren't using the newer material that requires the new CB?

One of the complaints among many about AD&D software, was that people no longer needed to buy the books. The first came out in 1996 prior to WotC finalizing purchase, so it was done then where people had the books in some form, then continued by WotC later in 1998 with an updated version.

Funny thing is, even today everyone will not print out rules wholesale to give to friends unless they have enough money to buy the books for them anyway because of ink costs, and today the pages of the rules books(DDi articles) have even more wasted ink.

Some will survive happily off just that program, as well the downladed CB.

This gap will only be furthered with more going directly to DDi rather than printed products, as there is little reaosn for those people with the older version of CB to buy new books if they can't get it in, and thus no reason for them to worry about what is in the new CB.

Also some have mentioned just being able to add new things form books as house rules, so they also don't need the new CB.

The gap can really only widen from here out as has been discussed on the whole in the fragmentation thread.

While the focus may be on the PHB as from a player perspective, does it hurt other future products directed mostly at players since they will never get an update for their version of the CB?

 

[Mercurius]

First of all, remember that 45,000 is the bare minimum number of DDI subscriptions - some on this site have guessed that it could be as many as 200,000 or even more (although that seems a little high to me). Let's say, as a middle ground and for the sake of discussion, that there are approximately 100,000 DDI subscriptions.

We also must remember that while the Player's Handbook might sell hundreds of thousands of copies, sales decrease after the first few months and then dwindle away over the years. What follows is the well known diminishing returns that fuels the edition cycle.

The idea behind DDI is that subscriptions stay steady, month to month, and should theoretically gradually increase as more and more buy into it. In other words, no diminishing returns, and potentially less of a need to go through the endless edition cycle. As with the 2-3 hardcovers that WotC used to publish each month, DDI provides a regular, monthly revenue stream. Yet unlike the hardcovers, the regular cost is much less and, theoretically at least, the regular revenue stream is not only more reliable but larger. Furthermore, I may be wrong but I would imagine that the cost of producing 2-3 hardcover books a month is likely much more than maintaining DDI, so the profit margin--at least as a percentage--should be higher.

Now the key to DDI working is that they not only have to keep their customers but they should be able to increase them; this, again, is different than the diminishing returns of the later years of the edition cycle. Now the problem is that this growth is dependent upon providing a quality product that people want. This is where WotC is really dropping the ball.

Thus your "gap" - it is only there to the degree that WotC doesn't provide a quality product that people want to keep on subscribing to, and new people want to get into. It could be much more successful than it has been, but for various reasons WotC hasn't capitalized on what should be their golden egg.

 

[shadzar]

First of all, remember that 45,000 is the bare minimum number of DDI subscriptions

I have been wondering about this for some time now..it automatically sets the forum members account to state they are a DDi subscriber, or they have to do it themselves, meaning there could be forum members hiding that they are DDi subscribers?

I know there are likely DDi subscribers that never joined the forums, but those are what you are talking about with the other number, but what does that number really say about those DDi subscriber groups in the forums?

 

[Dice4Hire]

Knowing the numbers and being able to figure out what they mean are two totally different things. I am sure WOTC has the numbers, but may not have the next step down.

 

[TerraDave]

Again, I am focusing on CB using non-subscribers, which undermines both books and DDI. The GAP is an attempt to gauge the cost. We don't know the numbers, but yes, the WotCies probably do.

Diminishing returns and quality are key to retention, sure. But there was so much crunch in the last downloaded CB, it now requires a fair amount of inovation to give subscribers a reason to stay subscribed.

 

[DEFCON 1]

Well the innovation needs to come from two sources. The first is to innovate in character generation which directly effects the Character Builder tool. The more "cool stuff" that WotC creates for characters that will only be accessed via the online builder will mean that those who want to use it will have to make the switch over. So for instance, I don't use the online builder currently because my campaign is ongoing and I don't need anything from the "new products" (i.e. Dark Sun or Essentials stuff) for my PCs when they level up. Now if/when I start a new campaign... especially if (for example) the Themes concept has been opened up for generic characters... at that point, the idea of perhaps using the online builder will have more traction for me.

However, the other innovation has to come from everything 'non-CB'. The Adventure Tools, the Virtual Tabletop, the two magazines, the Rules Compendium etc. The more "cool stuff" that WotC puts out there that has nothing to do with the CB, are all the more reason for someone who uses the offline CB & is non-DDI subscriber to perhaps consider subscribing anyway. Even if they never intend on using the online CB... it's all the other stuff that is worth the $7 a month.

And I think that as time goes on, and things like an Encounter Builder or a Trap Builder, or a Campaign Manager, or all those other tools that everyone thinks WotC either is or should be working on... finally come to pass... it will help keep the subscriptions to DDI coming in.

 

[SteveC]

I would say that in most groups, there is a sort of multiplier effect going on. There may be one or two in the group who maintain account, but the group as a whole uses it. My own group was a notable exception, where all but one of us are professionals who have real jobs, so we each had our own subscriptions.

Now it's been a little over a month since I've dropped my subscription, so I'm in the situation of asking others to look something up in the Compendium when we play (for instance). So far, it hasn't been a problem otherwise, largely because WotC isn't releasing any new content. We'll have to see how that changes when -- or if something new comes out.

I think WotC has a notion that they'll somehow be able to come up with a system where an entire group will want to subscribe to DDI, but for a face to face game, I can't see what that would really be.