Open Letter to WotC from Chris Dias

[Perram]

You invoked the word "like" into your logic. It broke down from there. You cannot quantify preference or desire.

Ok Matt,

You are becoming ridiculously pedantic.

I can most certainly quantify a generic preference for an imaginary idea to a value greater than zero in an argument that is entirely about buyer's preference. It is the entire basis for marketing!

If I had two T.V. shows about Space Marines at about the same quality, but one also had Ninjas and Ninjas had become popular lately... the show with Ninjas would be more likely to be the more popular show.

 

[Matt James]

Paizo 3rd party products sell better than D&D 4E 3rd party products.

We can go around in this circle once more. Can you please provide me the metrics used for your conclusion?

 

[dmccoy1693]

Jon, you're doing it again.

Can you point me to demonstrable examples of the behavior you are describing in your opening paragraph? You're using emotion, rather than logic, to get your point across. The rest of your post can be ignored because you are trying to confuse the topic further, without speaking to the original thesis of this argument--and the 'Open Letter' that started it.

On Friday, February 25th, I received a phone call from a writer experienced in 4th Edition wishing to produce his product. He had previously been tied to another major publisher that had recently dropped its 4th Edition lineup in favor of Paizo’s Pathfinder which they claim had been growing in sales to the extent of surpassing their 4th Edition products. This is not an isolated incident but only the latest symptom, following in the wake of similar announcements from Mongoose and Goodman Games. For all intents and purposes, despite declarations from fanboys on both sides about whether Pathfinder or D&D is the better seller, it is now glaringly obvious that from the 3rd party publisher outlook, the winner has been decided.

What I am saying and have been saying has everything to do with this. Just about every major 3rd party company recognized that Mongoose has a good head for business. They jumped ship because they didn't make enough of a profit. Goodman has an emotional attachment to 4E and they are moving to their own system.

And yes Morris, you are right. IMO Wizards does not want a 3rd party market. But my comments were in response to Matt's comments. I'm saying this is what would need to happen for me to consider signing on.

 

[Morrus]

A licensee's prospective. The #1 measure is $$$. Paizo 3rd party products sell better than D&D 4E 3rd party products.

My 4E products sell extremely well, in a variety of outlets and accessing methods. I'd like to see the data that indicates that on average Paizo 3PP products sell better than mine.

Indeed, I believe that if there were 500 third party 4E publishers, my 4E products would not sell nearly as well - as I witnessed to the hurtage of my wallet during the growth of d20. The status quo does me just fine.

 

[Umbran]

...else everything you are saying means nothing to the topic, and you are here to merely troll.

You are becoming ridiculously pedantic.

Folks,

You see these? They are signs the thread is getting heated, and folks are starting to make it personal - addressing the speaker, rather than the speaker's position. That's not constructive.

Please stop, take a moment, breathe, and don't continue the discussion in that style any further. Thank you, all.

 

[xechnao]

It may be annecdotal in my one case but the premise is generic enough to not be:

If, all other things being equal, or at least the differences negligible, System A has material available for it that a potential buyer would like, and System B does not... that pushes the odds of purchase towards System A.

The thing is that all other things are not equal. Who is not to say that Wotc could not find itself against a myriad of problems like a publisher producing a line that would be of a better quality and more successful than what they do and thus risking to hurt the privileges of the D&D brand's value.

You do not need to use a lot of your imagination to see a possible candidate.

 

[Nagol]

My 4E products sell extremely well, in a variety of outlets and accessing methods. I'd like to see the data that indicates that on average Paizo 3PP products sell better than mine.

And here I thought you felt your products were better than average.

since you have a somewhat unusual sales system (I'm thinking of the subscription model of the AP), the best approach would be to compare your 4e sales with your 3e sales for the same time period, no? It's not perfect of course, since it is probable that some who wanted the AP for 3e would have picked it up prior to the 4e conversion and your move to a subscription model.

Emberion's anecdotal evidence does suggest that for some product types, Pathfinder can sell better. A 1:6 ratio for 4eF for identical product out the same amout of time with the 4e product receiving award mention is notable.

 

[Perram]

The thing is that all other things are not equal. Who is not to say that Wotc could not find itself against a myriad of problems like a publisher producing a line that would be of a better quality and more successful than what they do and thus risking to hurt the privileges of the D&D brand's value.

You do not need to use a lot of your imagination to see a possible candidate.

Ok... you got me there.

But I guess the genie is already out of the bottle on this one?

Steeve Jackson Games did an interview on Happy Jack's RPG Podcast recently discussing this very thing, about why they didn't have 3rd party GURPS support. And quality control as well as brand control and the possibility of... well, a Pathfinder happening to them were issues they were concerned about.

 

[dmccoy1693]

We can go around in this circle once more. Can you please provide me the metrics used for your conclusion?

DriveThruRPG's Top 100 Small Press contains as of time of posting:

Icons titles: 13
Pathfinder titles: 13 (one of which is from my company, in the interest of full disclosure)
Savage World's titles: 11
Fate titles: 5

D&D 4E titles: 0

From my oversations, I would consider this an average day.

Note: I did not count Fantastic Maps: The Sand Dragon Inn in either Pathfinder or D&D since it was listed under both.

 

[Morrus]

And here I thought you felt your products were better than average.

since you have a somewhat unusual sales system (I'm thinking of the subscription model of the AP), the best approach would be to compare your 4e sales with your 3e sales for the same time period, no? It's not perfect of course, since it is probable that some who wanted the AP for 3e would have picked it up prior to the 4e conversion and hyour move to a subscription model.

Well, I'm not going to disclose the exact figures, but WotBS 4E has sold three times what WotBS 3.5 ever did, even adding in the current 3.5 re-issues which are being made available alongside the 4E versions.