When did WotC D&D "Jump the Shark"?

[BryonD]

I'm doing no such thing. The picture I'm painting is grey and fuzzy, and we can't really see any detail in it.

You have painted a clear picture of a "deep split" in the market. That may very well be the case. But we don't know whether or not it's the case.

Whatever, you compared it to two games published by the same company as part of a common brand. That is a lot more "one big happy family" than the situation I see.

If you make the ballpark big enough, then clearly PF is in it. The question of exactly how big the ballpark needs to be before we can get PF in it, however, is an open question and we have little to no evidence to go on.

Can you show any evidence whatsoever to refute the claim that it is in a standard size ballpark?

If you challenged me with any other game 3 years into 3E, I certainly could have done that. The request would have been so silly that I doubt I would have bothered. But it could have been done.

 

[Fifth Element]

Can you show any evidence whatsoever to refute the claim that it is in a standard size ballpark?

There's a standard-sized ballpark with respect to the RPG industry? How big is it exactly?

 

[BryonD]

First of all he seems to me to be determined to interpret any doubt as to his opinion on things as meaning that we believe that PF is insignificant, nothing in 2011 is any different than it was in 2008, etc etc etc. That is a significant misinterpretation of what at least I (and I am gathering from other poster's responses I'm not alone) have been saying.

Huh?

but BryonD's view of things where 4e apparently is hated by armies of gamers is at best far from the whole story.

BryonD's view is that there is a serious split. "the whole story" includes meaningfully large numbers of people who find 4E unappealing enough that they have walked away from it. And it *is* disturbingly common to find people within that group that really do HATE 4e. But if I had ever claimed that was the whole story then the end of the story would be "and that is why 4E isn't published any more, because it is hated by armies of gamers."

The split that I describe is just that. There are, apparently, roughly the same number of player that love 4E. And I certainly know that more than a few of them have serious negative opinions of PF. Maybe we could call it hate there as well, but I will stop short of putting that word in the mouth of the other side.

There are definitely 2 popular forms of D&D on the market. There are some people that like one or the other, and some that like both or don't care etc. That's about all you can say BryonD, sorry.

That may be all you can say. But rational interpretation of the available information does make it possible to say more than just that.

I'm good with both of them thriving. Competition is always good.

I 100% agree there.

 

[BryonD]

There's a standard-sized ballpark with respect to the RPG industry? How big is it exactly?

So all you've got now is word games? Ok.

And you may have missed the point, but the SIZE of the ballpark isn't the question. It is pretty freaking small compared to the ballpark of WOW.

But if it is devastatingly small or a new golden age huge, it makes no difference. The point is, they are both in the same one.

 

[Fifth Element]

But if it is devastatingly small or a new golden age huge, it makes no difference. The point is, they are both in the same one.

There's another positive assertion. Depending on where you draw the line of that ballpark, you could get a number of people to agree with you; and a number who disagree. But you can't define it precisely, since we don't have any actual evidence. So we're left with some vague notion, which is impossible to refute but also impossible to support.

 

[BryonD]

You need to go back and read what I wrote earlier.

 

[pemerton]

I seriously doubt that Paizo is making as much money from Pathfinder as WotC was making from 3E in its final years, simply because (as far as I understand it) 3E in its final years was keeping afloat a rather bigger ship than Pathfinder is. (But maybe I just have mistaken beliefs about the comparative size of WotC and Paizo.)

EDITED to respond to OP: 4e jumped the shark when WotC nerfed Come and Get It not to deal with an issue of overpoweredness, but rather in response to complaints (primarily, I believe, from non-4e players) about the players of fighter PCs having access to metagame abilities.

 

[Hussar]

Back around 2005, right after Katrina, I sent a meekly worded letter to Paizo that it looked like my copy of Dungeon had gotten lost in the mail during the chaos, and could I please get a replacement copy.

I was very shocked a few weeks later to get a box containing not only a replacement mag, but a handful of books, minis, dice and whatnot. I later found out I was not the only one who received such a "care package" from them (and I believe they have done this following other disasters) and I have never forgotten that small ray of sunshine in that otherwise depressing time in my life.

Paizo has done quite right by my standards of supporting the hobby, and their fans to boot.

Hang on a tick. That's not what I said though. I said nothing about their support for their fans (which has been outstandingly fantastic.) I was solely talking about gamer outreach - as in trying to bring in new people to the hobby.

I certainly wonder, what anecdotes are there to suggest that 4E is just a dominate as 3E was? Or to suggest that the market is largely unified and not "deeply split".

There are a whole slew of positions between "unified" and "deeply split" that are undreampt of by your words.

 

[Hussar]

Whatever, you compared it to two games published by the same company as part of a common brand. That is a lot more "one big happy family" than the situation I see.

Can you show any evidence whatsoever to refute the claim that it is in a standard size ballpark?

If you challenged me with any other game 3 years into 3E, I certainly could have done that. The request would have been so silly that I doubt I would have bothered. But it could have been done.

How many people play D&D in any form?

How many people play a given edition of D&D at this time?

How has this changed in the past year? Two years? Five years?

Sure, right after the 3e bubble when D&D was as popular as it had ever been in its entire history, possibly even rivalling the popularity of the early 80's, you couldn't find another game that was coming close. Ok, I'll agree with that.

But, is that the bar now? That for D&D to be "successful" it has to be as successful or more successful than it every has been in the past? Wouldn't that mean that D&D has been failing for most of its history? You've 30 years of D&D, and about 6 years of D&D being clearly on top of pile.

Is 4e as popular as 3e was in 2001? Nope. I don't think anyone would think that. D&D has rarely been that popular. It would have been nice had it pulled the same trick again, but, really that's wishful thinking - too many variables out of everyone's hands.

Is Pathfinder more popular than 3e was in, say, 2006? I have no idea. And, I have a sneaking suspicion that very few people do either. I have a Dragon from that era talking about the RPG having some 100-150 k members. Are there 150 k Pathfinder players? Who knows.

Like others, my picture is grey and pretty darn fuzzy.

 

[TheUltramark]

i read this thread like 3 times trying hard to make sense out of it, I think I pulled my brain.

I don't know if this is an anecdote or how big a ballpark it is, or anything like that, but I will tell you this....if i am NOT a shareholder of hasbro inc. why would I give a crap if 4E is behind pathfinder in popularity or sales?