A Dance with Dragons discussion (SPOILERS!)

[Wednesday Boy]

Hmm good points. I don't think it'll be as tidy, and I'm not sure why Dany is going to head to Westeros still. There's just no pull factor yet.

As she's wandering through the Dothraki Sea she dwells on how she has no obligation to Meereen because it isn't her home. But she does see Westeros is her home and her birthright.

Ramsay's letter has too much information to not be from Ramsay (ie, Reek), but it's strange that in the defeat of Stannis he didn't recover Theon, so something isn't going well there.

I think the defeat of Stannis parts were a bluff since he never recovered Theon. I'm guessing he made the bluff so his threats of coming after Jon would seem credible and encourage Jon to come to him.

Also there are theories that John was actually the bastard son of Raeghar and Eddard Stark's sister (hence why he looks like a Stark).

That's what I've theorized too. At some point someone told Jon who his mother was, which debunked this theory but that's assuming the character who revealed it (I forget who it was) was telling the truth. And only a fool believes everything GRRM's characters say!

Not so much against the return of magic; just not too keen on the who undead thing. I really like all the political strategy.

I love the political strategizing as well and I find it's only enhanced by the inclusion of the undead threat. The undead adds a terrible, unwavering urgency that looms outside of the political landscape. Not only do the heroes have to deal with the vipers and schemers in court and on the battlefield, they have to do it quickly before the outside threat is upon them.

 

[Cor Azer]

As she's wandering through the Dothraki Sea she dwells on how she has no obligation to Meereen because it isn't her home. But she does see Westeros is her home and her birthright.

That's possible. My other thought is that while she and Drogon get taken to Vaes Dothrak, Victarion somehow begins taking Rhaegal and Viseryon to Westeros. Then Dany's goal becomes part rescue mission for her two children.

I think the defeat of Stannis parts were a bluff since he never recovered Theon. I'm guessing he made the bluff so his threats of coming after Jon would seem credible and encourage Jon to come to him.

Unless he caught Mance, and Mance turned on Jon (admittedly, not a stretch), I don't really see what Ramsey's beef with Jon is; at least not to that angry extent.

Also, while it would have worked had Jon not been shanked, why would someone think taunting the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch would get him to march south?

Something fishy...

That's what I've theorized too. At some point someone told Jon who his mother was, which debunked this theory but that's assuming the character who revealed it (I forget who it was) was telling the truth. And only a fool believes everything GRRM's characters say!

Edric Dayne refers to Jon as his milk brother to Arya, which just means the same woman breastfed them; as for parentage, it strongly resembles a particular breed of fish tainted rouge.

I love the political strategizing as well and I find it's only enhanced by the inclusion of the undead threat. The undead adds a terrible, unwavering urgency that looms outside of the political landscape. Not only do the heroes have to deal with the vipers and schemers in court and on the battlefield, they have to do it quickly before the outside threat is upon them.

In addition, with the threat so geographically distant, Martin can still play with those who disbelieve such nonsense. Comeuppances are so much fun.

 

[Remus Lupin]

All true, but if he's going to bring the threat from the north down to the south, he'd better quit dilly-dallying. Since he's only (supposed to) have two more volumes to wrap this up. While I see some of the pieces moving into place for the end game, the North still seems like an awfully far way away from the rest of the action.

 

[Wednesday Boy]

Unless he caught Mance, and Mance turned on Jon (admittedly, not a stretch), I don't really see what Ramsey's beef with Jon is; at least not to that angry extent.

Also, while it would have worked had Jon not been shanked, why would someone think taunting the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch would get him to march south?

Something fishy...

I'd have to re-read Ramsay's letter but my assumption was that Ramsay caught Mance and turtured him until he revealed why he was at Winterfell. Since Mance was there to get the girl and send her to Jon, Ramsay thinks he has her. That was his beef with Jon.

And I thought the letter was a threat rather than a taunt to goad Jon into marching south. To bolster his threat Ramsay lied about destroying Stannis to prove his might and so Jon would feel like there was no one to help him. Jon would either have to give back Jayne and Theon or be attacked by Ramsay's strong army.

All true, but if he's going to bring the threat from the north down to the south, he'd better quit dilly-dallying. Since he's only (supposed to) have two more volumes to wrap this up. While I see some of the pieces moving into place for the end game, the North still seems like an awfully far way away from the rest of the action.

Dilly-dallying is right--especially for the folks who are watching the tv series! Unless he can speed up writing the last two books the series will catch up with the tv series.

 

[Remus Lupin]

What you say is true, but I meant more dilly dallying in terms of the plot. I am assuming that as Winter moves in and the world gets colder, the threat from the north will begin to move inexorably south. But given Martin's approach to the narrative, it's going to involve a lot of pages to get them down past the neck, while at the same time keeping us abreast of what's happening to all of the other threads that he's got dangling.

 

[Wednesday Boy]

Yeah, I follow you.

 

[Cor Azer]

What you say is true, but I meant more dilly dallying in terms of the plot. I am assuming that as Winter moves in and the world gets colder, the threat from the north will begin to move inexorably south. But given Martin's approach to the narrative, it's going to involve a lot of pages to get them down past the neck, while at the same time keeping us abreast of what's happening to all of the other threads that he's got dangling.

I'm not too worried about the time needed for the Others to be a credible threat below the Neck - all you need is a few hundred (?) / thousand (?) / hundred thousand (?) refugees fleeing from the North in advance, right into wartorn Riverlands, on top of a hard hitting winter that didn't allow for proper harvest; the Others don't have to ve the sole danger.

Also, several character threads will need some significant travel time to get where "we" expect them to go; if Martin can weave the story such that many of these hsppen at the same time, the chronology won't feel as stretched and squashed.

 

[NewJeffCT]

I think the defeat of Stannis parts were a bluff since he never recovered Theon. I'm guessing he made the bluff so his threats of coming after Jon would seem credible and encourage Jon to come to him.
.

That would be plausible if Ramsay didn't know about Mance and his spearwives. However, in the book, one of them took a pair of fatal crossbow bolts as they escaped, and I think the letter says he has all six women that came with Mance. [edited to add - never mind, re-read the letter and it implies all six women are dead... my bad]

I also think Jon is alive in ghost - the prologue kind of foretells that, I think.

My question is - the wall holds the Others back with magic. How do the Others get beyond the wall to go South into the North & beyond? Does somebody really find that horn and blow it to destroy the wall?

 

[Fast Learner]

My question is - the wall holds the Others back with magic. How do the Others get beyond the wall to go South into the North & beyond? Does somebody really find that horn and blow it to destroy the wall?

Some other possibilities I've considered:

• The wall is proof against the Others but different magic -- from the Red God, or dragon fire, or other magic from Essos like that in Quarth -- might take down the wall, or enough of it.
   
• While the Others themselves cannot cross the wall, the wights they create obviously can, and stay animated in the wall and south of it; with the massive creation of new wights in the various events in the latter part of the book, an army of creatures that can only be stopped by fire or total dismemberment might be all the Others would ever need, especially if the south doesn't get its crap together.
   
• The story that the magic of the wall prevents the Others from crossing simply isn't true; rather, the great efforts of Azor Ahai and a bunch of obsidian blades did enough damage and sufficiently drove them back that they haven't been ready to attack again until now. 8,000 years of oral tradition and some copied scrolls and books (at best) is a long time to get things wrong. (Edit: I just remembered that Coldhands was unable to cross the wall, making this much less likely.)
   
• Related, the Others attack when the cycle that creates especially long and dark winters reaches a point of maximum length, something that just hasn't happened for 8,000 years, and the time is again come. Who knows how time passes for them, perhaps a few millennia isn't that long. The wall appears to have been effective simply because it's never before been the right time. (Edit, see above.)

There are plenty of other possibilities, I'm sure, but those occur to me now.

 

[NewJeffCT]

since the coming winter is supposed to be epic in nature, and regular winters bring snows that are 100 feet deep to the North, it's also possible that the snows could top the wall...