freyar
Extradimensional Explorer
Actually from what I've read, MOND makes very good predictions in many areas (and not just galaxy speed), not so good ones in others. To focus on just those where it falters and say that it is probably wrong because of those isn't objective science. No doubt, MOND is minimally incomplete and even possibly incorrect because it cannot explain everything. Dark Matter also has areas where it does not make good predictions (or at least consistent predictions from one galaxy to the next).
I want to come back to this again briefly. From studying the CMB, we know that there must be some kind of non-normal dark matter in essentially the right amount to explain the speeds of galaxies in clusters, rotation of stars in galaxies, etc. Even some strong MOND advocates agree. Is it possible that MOND is necessary to explain the motions of, for example, stars in galaxies? Yes. I haven't heard anyone to argue that it's not possible (that is, another physicist make this case). However, it seems reasonable to most people that dark matter works well with what data we have, so there is no reason yet to add a new ingredient of MOND until we see something that dark matter predicts incorrectly.
I'm not sure about "a lot" of recent articles, at least not scientific research. The vast majority is really on dark matter. Think of it like a company. You might spend some of your capital on a risky but high-payoff kind of project (MOND), but you want to invest almost all of it on a less risky but also pretty high-payoff project (DM). I should also mention that there are strong motivations to believe that there is particle physics beyond the Standard Model of particle physics (for reasons independent of wanting dark matter) which themselves often include possible dark matter particles.There are a lot of recent articles that are starting to support MOND more and more, but some of the more (apparently, who can actually tell) objective sources that I've recently read seem to indicate that it is not winning the fight quite yet. And, this is how you appear to view it.
It's possible. There are people following up on the papers discussed in this blog post. But some of the history not mentioned in that post is that Verlinde's idea is very similar to work done a long time ago (10-20 years, I think) and has never produced much. Could it be right? Yes, but it just doesn't have a good track record yet. The logic in the papers also seems a bit circular in places, if I recall.But, I wouldn't be surprised if the final answer is a combination of a few current theories. The gravitational equations might be wrong and there might be invisible matter out there. There also might be other forces at work beyond just gravity or gravity might not work exactly as thought.
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com...atter-a-glimpse-of-a-deeper-level-of-reality/
But, when someone like Physics Nobel Prize winner Martinus Veltman (who helped architect the standard model of particle physics) states that he doubts that Dark Matter exists at all, other scientists should at least listen:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=lindau-dark-energy
He might be wrong. Only time and a lot of hard work will tell.
I'm listening to the clip. And people do respect that (listen to the woman talking to the other students at around 11:30). But I can tell you that he makes some inaccurate statements (in particular, saying that we believe in dark energy because of one experiment -- it was a number of things together that convinced people).
An absence of data in the case of Neptune? Actually, this analysis is a bit flawed.
Scientists did have data. They knew the distance from the Sun to Neptune. They had an idea of its mass and chemical composition. They had information on the amount of solar wind that arrived at Earth and models to predict how much would arrive at the other planets. They did have some information on wind speed on other gas giants in the solar system like Jupiter and Saturn and had even more wind speed data once Voyager 1 and 2 got to Jupiter and Saturn, a decade before Voyager 2 got to Neptune.
To insinuate that scientists had no data and then "Wow, now we have data" is incorrect. They had quite a bit of data there. Their theories and models were just incorrect based on the data that they had at the time. But, there wasn't a total lack of data there.
OK, I think maybe I wasn't entirely clear in what I was saying. They did not have direct data on the wind speeds at Neptune. What you're saying is that they had a lot of indirect information to build a model of Neptune's climate -- true -- but that model turned out to be incorrect. (By the way, solar wind is not the same as a planetary wind.)
This is very different than the case of dark matter. First off, the idea of dark matter was prompted by data (stellar motion in galaxies). It wasn't a case of thinking about something we already saw (Neptune) and trying to model something we hadn't directly observed yet (the winds). Then, people started asking about predictions or consequences of the idea of dark matter. And these predictions have been verified, in at least one case (the CMB) very very well.
If one does a matrix diagram of Dark Matter theories and Gravity Modification theories, one finds that both types of theories cover some observations very well and other observations, not so well.
The problem that has been creeping more and more into at least the literature (and opinions like Martinus Veltman's) is a) DM has its flaws just like MOND or other theories, but more importantly b) DM just hasn't been found yet. Period. Not even a hint of it. At least to the lay person, DM sounds like magic. We don't know what it is, we've spent many hundreds of thousands of manhours of some of the brightest people on the planet, and many millions of dollars trying to figure out what it is and/or detect it, but we are teaching our students that it must be true because the equations tell us that it is true.
Well, of course one is going to have thousands of scientists the world over that believe it is true if that is what they were taught in school and there is no alternative theory that explains it all better. Just look at how quickly the students in the video above were ready to defend DM. Why? Because that is what they were taught as true science. They know about alternative theories, but they discard them out of hand without putting any real work into them.
You have more than one point here, and I'm going to address them out of order. Last one first: I think it's really quite unfair to the astrophysics/cosmology/particle physics community to say that it "discards" alternative theories because of "what they were taught as true science." First of all, there are definitely people working on alternatives, like MOND, and the division of labor is the result of an optimization process: each physicist deciding (1) what seems like a promising avenue based on current evidence and (2) where he or she can make a good contribution. Next, science has proven to be very good at self-correction. As you've cited, there are "contrarian" scientists, and people do listen when the give solid arguments. (Veltman's in that video were not well-articulated IMO, but maybe he has stronger reasons than what came out in the clip.)
Back to the first point. I hope I've made it clear that the most important, cleanest observation, the CMB, points strongly to the existence of matter outside the Standard Model. It's also pretty difficult for theories without dark matter to explain things like the Bullet Cluster.
And now, the grand finale
