AbdulAlhazred
Legend
Actually, I'd argue that the 30 large supplements in 5 years was a big reason it did fail. Too much content too fast. They saturated the market and no one would buy the content.
I've done a blog post on why 4e failed. The solid majority of the reasons have nothing to do with the system itself.
Did it fail though? Well, I discuss that in my blog but they fired the man in charge of 4e (Bill Slavicsek) and decided to spent three years racking up debts and making a new edition rather than continue to publish 4e, so that's a bad sign. And the company lost its position as market leader to a company essentially dedicated to re-publishing an abandoned edition of the game.
Did I like 4e? I found it okay. It was adequate. I rather liked what they were doing with the later books post-Essentials.
I was initially rather anti-4e. Or rather, I was really supportive of the changes during the design but disappointing by the final product. Initially just by the pure combat focus and needless symmetry of the classes. As I played and ran the game I mellowed to some aspects but saw other problems more and more.
Still, even when running and playing it wasn't my preferred edition and did not let me tell the stories I wanted to tell. I always found myself compromising my adventures to accommodation the needs of the game. With well over two years of 4e experience under my belt I could probably do better, and have a better idea of the stories that would compliment the system. There are stories that 4e would have been good at telling, but they were never high on my list and my main group wholeheartedly rejected 4e so considering them was a moot point.
I don't think he can.
He's the manager of D&D (he's in charge of the entire brand but isn't technically the one making the game), but there's more than a couple levels of bureaucracy above him. What can and cannot be revealed is pretty heavily controlled and WotC as a company has a pretty serious problem with secrecy and control.
Plus I think they're still working on the details. They can't get into specifics because they haven't solidified yet because they're still tweaking the base game. They have ideas and know how it should work but they haven't actually written it enough to say for sure.
Clarke's first law states: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
Given how totally and completely different d20 Modern felt from 3e or Gamma World felt from 4e, I say it is quite possible.
However you're also not even close to unanimous with that opinion.
Keep in mind the surveys. (I assume you're actually filling out the surveys and not just ranting on message boards that will never be read.)
They're reading the surveys. They can see how many people are happy and how many are upset. And they've stated they're willing to make major changes if as little as 10% of respondents are unhappy.
So there are a few likely options:
a) they're ignoring 4e fans outright
b) they're lying and don't care if people like the game
c) they're hoping when the tactical modules are released more 4e fans will be happy
d) the percentage of unhappy fans is smaller than 10%
Now, if the answer is a) or b) we're pretty much screwed. And so is 5e. But they'd have to be pretty silly to do that and risk killing a game they grew up playing and sacrifice their jobs (especially as jobs in the RPG industry might be hard to get if they're seen as the people who killed D&D).
C) is a possibility. I included it out of fairness. It's worrisome as it means they might be in for disappointment if the tactical module goes up like a lead balloon and is hated by ardent 4e fans. This is the most-likely bad scenario.
But it does mean the worst case scenario is a tactical module that doesn't appeal to a fraction of a fraction of the total audience.
The most likely scenario is d): people like 5e and the majority are satisfied with what they see or are optimistic about the game. Let's face it, forum goers are a pretty niche sampling of the audience and people complaining on message boards are not likely to be a representational sampling. Casual players or those content with what they're seeing are unlikely to spend their free hours ranting online. And, frankly, the majority of players will likely play whatever game is set before them.
While the surveys are likely skewed as well, favouring those who want to comment or are interested enough in the playtest to, well, playtest, there's a far better chance of an even sampling there than here.
Umm.... well... kinda.
I don't there's a single thing that you can point to and say "this makes 4e into 4e." Some might say AEDU powers. Others might say the focus on encounters as the core of combat. Others might point to tactical gameplay. Some might view the strong party roles as defining of 4e. And others still might say something like the Nentir Vale, Primordials, and dragonborn.
Some of those things are easier to integrate into 5e than others. They've already discussed a module that makes PC resources into Encounter resources. And there is the tactical module. Those two options together might satisfy a large percentage of 4e fans.
Will they satisfy every single 4e fan? No. But neither will they satisfy every 1e or 3e or PF fan. This is the gamble of 5e.
4e gambled that it could try and satisfy a large majority of 3e fans and make up for lost fans with new fans, such as MMO players. Instead, it satisfied a minority of 3e fans and an unsustainable number of new players.
5e is trying a very different tactic, focusing first on appealing to actual fans of the game rather than potential fans (read: theoretical fans). The alternative, the 4.5e, would be a huge mistake as; just like 3.5e, it would not pull in all 4e fans nor would it attract fans from previous editions. 4.5e would target a very, very niche audience. 5e at least has the change of attracting a larger audience.
You still make many unjustified assumptions about the success and acceptance of 4e. Some people screamed about it on boards, I can as easily dismiss that as you dismiss the screaming about DDN. I'd also note that there was plenty of positive talk going on about 4e from practically every quarter before it came out. I don't think it is justified to say that 4e lost WotC anything. Did it lose them market share? Really? Overall? At specific times specific PF books have outsold specific 4e books. It is very hard to say that PF is anything beyond a trivial factor in terms of 4e as a product and its market. Most of the people I know own 4e even if they also own PF. Clearly WotC can ask itself "how would we got THOSE sales as well as the ones we have", but that doesn't mean they've lost sales compared to 3.x. Clearly if 3.x was selling well then why would they have made 4e?
PF is a very mild update (if you can even call it an update) of 3.5, its not like it captured market by being a better game, or created some completely new experience that people had to have. IMHO PF's popularity is all about people that LIKE Paizo. I think they found a successful niche in producing a full-featured D&D clone and styling it and providing it with material that meets their particular aesthetics and qualities. It is good material, but I am not at all convinced that it is popular BECAUSE of 4e, but more DESPITE 4e.
As for your "Mike can't talk about it because TOP SECRET" that's just IMHO utter nonsense. He's talked and talked and talked about the design of DDN ad-nauseum for the past 2 years. Why on God's Green Earth would any possible mention of what would make it appealing to a major part of their customer base be so secret that he can talk about every other part of the game and not that? The notion is just not tenable. The only reasonable interpretation is he has nothing to talk about. The most parsimonious interpretation of that is because there IS nothing to talk about, in fact there are no major features designed to appeal to 4e players.
That isn't of course 100% fair, we assume there's still a 'tactical module' on the agenda somewhere, but its odd that such a thing would be relegated to the end of development and demand so little validation that if it doesn't show up real soon now it isn't going to be present at release at all. I mean if Vancian casting deserves 2 years of P/T then surely tactical combat deserves an equal amount, and should equally be likely to influence core design decisions? I'm puzzled there, but whatever, its quite possible it will be everything people have asked for.
Of course it really isn't tactical combat that matters to many of us. It was generalized mechanics (which in the case of 4e was embodied in AEDU power schedules mostly), exception-based design (which BTW has nothing to do with the feel of the game), and narrative features/reskinnability. NONE of those are things that can really be tacked on (I suppose you could provide a whole alternate set of classes). Core rules would probably need to work differently as well, healing, skills, etc. The question isn't so much 'can you hack this game to be that game' as "is it worth completely rewriting this game to be that game, just so you can say that you're publishing only one game and not two?". Once the 'modules' become so extensive that it would be cheaper for everyone if there were just 2 separate rule books with different names is there really a whole lot of point left in this exercise?
I think 5e will be lucky attract an audience as large as 4e's. Like every edition it will have a bubble, but I don't think it will be sustainable. Its a tapped out formula.