Game design has "moved on"

[Bedrockgames]

"What I see locally" is a terrible point (I don't see Americans locally, but I'm pretty sure they exist) or Ford Mustangs (but I'm pretty sure they exist, too). Even "what I see on the blogs I read" is a terrible point, for obvious reasons.

The difficulty accommodating different terms and labels is absolutely a relevant point. I continually add new ones to the OSR category, but you're right - I can never be 100% accurate.

I dont think it is a terrible point. You also have to go by what you see in your own gaming community. It doesnt give you a big picture view, but it sometimes catches things that you miss online. For blogs and forums, keep in mind, i am not saying I see it on a few blogs that i happen to read regularly. I routinely go on forums and skim through threads to see what is being discussed. Regularly look at rpg blogs and google search rpgs to see what is going on. It isn't scientific, but it is done with an aim of getting a sense of what things are on peoples' minds in gaming. In the course of that, i come across a lot of osR material.

 

[Morrus]

Yes, but again this is just one analysis by one person. I am not doubting your abilities to do online research. I am just saying that particular point of data is so out of sync from what I see that i would really need to see more to conclude it reflects that OSR is that small a part of the market. For example, you may well have found only five percent, but when reprints come out of rpgnow they tend to do pretty wel upon release. Our own OSR game did considerably better than our others, and i even see emergin OSR discussions in unexpected places like story-games.com.

Fair enough. But what key terms does it use to seperate osr D&D from regular d&d. Does it include all rpg forums and all rpg blogs? Again, i am sure you did a good job with it. But it is just one source of information for me.

OK, have you even looked at the hot games page? I'm getting the sense you haven't. It's not what I think you seem to think it is. It's certainly not me reading stuff and reporting on what I think I saw. It's a system which tracks forum threads from 300K people plus over 1000 website and blogs.

Now, there are valid criticisms that could be leveled at that approach, for sure. "That's not what I see in the blogs I read" isn't one, though.

And why on earth would you think that 5% is a small portion of the market? That's a fantastic figure! That's more than some really big games out there. It's not D&D big, but it's big.

 

[Morrus]

It doesnt give you a big picture view

Yep, that's what I keep trying to say!

I routinely go on forums and skim through threads to see what is being discussed. Regularly look at rpg blogs and google search rpgs to see what is going on. It isn't scientific, but it is done with an aim of getting a sense of what things are on peoples' minds in gaming. In the course of that, i come across a lot of osR material.

Sure fair enough! It's reasonable to put your data sources up against those on the page! Could you provide the figures? And what percentage does this lead you to conclude is the correct percentage for OSR discussion?

And again, I ask - in what sense do you feel that 5% of RPG discussion is not "a lot"? That IS a lot. It's a whole lot. It's a metric crapload. Any system would be ecstatic to get 5% of the market (though this isn't market, it's discussion).

Is it just that "5%" doesn't sound like a lot to you? I assure you it is. You say you see a lot of OSR stuff; that page agrees that there is a lot of OSR stuff. I'm wondering if the issue here is a lack of perception on just how big 5% is? That you think it sounds like a small number, when in fact it's a wonderful chunk of the total?

 

[Bedrockgames]

The difficulty accommodating different terms and labels is absolutely a relevant point. I continually add new ones to the OSR category, but you're right - I can never be 100% accurate.

I understand. When your analysis came out, it made a big splash among OSR gamers. I was actually not at all diamissive of it when it came out. Because for my purposes, I want an accurate picture of what is going on, and even if i have a sense that the five percent feels a bit low, it is a data point and it is astarting place at least. But since it came out, i still feel that five percent number doesnt match what I see. I think plenty of folks in the osr movement over estimate the size of the revival, but i just sense it is bigger than five percent.

Again i don't know what terms you use. But my question would be whether you include the names of all the various retroclones, but also other games that are regarded as osr. There are a lot of individual games that make up OSR.

 

[Bedrockgames]

Sure fair enough! It's reasonable to put your data sources up against those on the page! Could you provide the figures? And what percentage does this lead you to conclude is the correct percentage for OSR discussion?

I don't have numbers or figures. I am not claiming to have done a mathmatical analysis. I just regularly look at rpgnow, skim through thread titles on message boards and see on what is going on in the rpg blogosphere (the rpg blog alliance for example). And i am saying my sense is five percent feels off. Again it is just a sense. But it is enough of a sense that it would take more data to convince me the osR market is as small as five percent.

 

[Morrus]

the rpg blog alliance for example

Yes, the RPG Blog Alliance is one of the many sources counted and compiled continually.

But it is enough of a sense that it would take more data to convince me the osR market is as small as five percent.

Ah, we're just repeating ourselves here. 5% isn't small, it's big; like I keep saying. But I'm going to leave it there.

 

[Bedrockgames]

OK, have you even looked at the hot games page? I'm getting the sense you haven't. It's not what I think you seem to think it is. It's certainly not me reading stuff and reporting on what I think I saw. It's a system which tracks forum threads from 300K people plus over 1000 website and blogs.

Now, there are valid criticisms that could be leveled at that approach, for sure. "That's not what I see in the blogs I read" isn't one, though.

i looked at it when it first came out, when it made the splash i referenced. Would be happy to take another look. Like I said, i wasnt a critic of it when it came out. The five percent number is the only one i was a bit skeptical of.

And why on earth would you think that 5% is a small portion of the market? That's a fantastic figure! That's more than some really big games out there. It's not D&D big, but it's big.

Now this is a point i hadnt considered. Five percent of the market is still significant.

 

[Bedrockgames]

Ah, we're just repeating ourselves here. 5% isn't small, it's big; like I keep saying. But I'm going to leave it there.

Fair enough. That is a valid point.

 

[Morrus]

Now this is a point i hadnt considered. Five percent of the market is still significant.

It's not just significant, it's major league. There are very few games which command 5% of the online discussion. That's more than a lot of games which I'll bet you consider to be "big".

Remember - if everyone had 5%, there would be only 20 games. There are hundreds and hundreds of games which effectively register "0". Even 1% is pretty cool- that means one in every 100 people online is talking about your game. Think about that for a second, and what that means for 5%!

5% is 1 in 20 people. 1 in 20 people are talking about OSR stuff. That ain't small, that's massive!

(Actually, I'm going to add that to the page, because I get a lot of people complaining about small numbers which are actually big ones).

 

[Bedrockgames]

It's not just significant, it's major league. There are very few games which command 5% of the online discussion. That's more than a lot of games which I'll bet you consider to be "big".

Remember - if everyone had 5%, there would be only 20 games. There are hundreds and hundreds of games which effectively register "0". Even 1% is pretty cool- that means one in every 100 people online is talking about your game. Think about that for a second, and what that means for 5%!

5% is 1 in 20 people. 1 in 20 people are talking about OSR stuff. That ain't small, that's massive!

Those are some very good points. I have to admit I wasn't thinking clearly about what five percent actually means here.