D&D 5E Given WotC plans with the RPG will 5e always be the #1 seller?

[BryonD]

Early on, that was probably true, but for most of the people still playing PF, I doubt it. Those unhappy with WotC were just as likely to get unhappy with Paizo and move on to something else again. I can see a lot of people supporting both, but I just don't see a lot of people abandoning PF entirely. Paizo's adventure and world support are going to be very hard for WotC to match.

It will be very interesting to see.
There are a lot of people deeply invested in Paizo/PF. Some love the setting and APs, some just really love the core system, so are dedicated to Paizo as a company and the stances they take on things both gaming and outside of gaming. But PF is 5 years old and built on a core three times that age. So between people moving out of the hobby and being replaced with younger blood, and people just being ready for something new, there is plenty of room for it to go either way.

I think it will come down to 5E.
The core game by RAW seems to have a split between people who love it as-is and people who see potential but want to mod it. (obviously some have no interest as well, but all-in-all it has a very solid start in positive interest). So, is the fraction that loves it as-is big enough alone? I doubt it. But will the game actually work with a lot of mods to support enough of those people so that they play (and spend) on it (whether as a go-to or one of many games). Right now, I think it will. I think it is going to succeed well enough to push Paizo into some new strategy. (though they are ahead of that in their product diversity already)

But I could be wrong. When the new shiny is worn off and the DMG tool box has been put through the wringer, we will see.
Ask again in 30 months. If 5E becomes the standard for the community, then it will lock in at #1, even if they produce a lot less product. After all, if some people are only playing 5E, then their spend on other system will drop....


We will see.
I'm hopeful.
Though part of the reason I'm hopeful is because a robust modability will be what I need for their next tier in better games. And I always want to best.

 

[sunshadow21]

I doubt it will push Paizo into a new strategy because they probably already planned for this eventuality. Even if people stop buying the core rules, there is still the APs, companion lines, novels, and everything else that Paizo has going on. In short, they have already achieved something with the rules that WotC wants to, and don't rely on selling rulebooks. PF as a brand will be just fine because Paizo wasn't dumb enough to rely on just the rules the same way that WotC did with 4E. As I said before, I just don't see a lot of people completely dropping the brand. Even people who play only 5E will still likely buy one or more of the adventure or companion lines, keeping Paizo in the mix for #1.

 

[Tony Vargas]

Of course, it slowed to a trickle only after the sales started to drop.

Still haven't seen any data to indicate that there was an unusual drop there. On another thread, though, you can see D&D staying # 1 through the period that you claimed it was 'dropping,' so that's just an indicator that Pathfinder's sales were even lower.

Paizo had nothing to do with it.

Like I said, full credit for taking advantage of the anti-WotC phenomenon. I don't know if they'd even /want/ credit for fanning the flames, themselves.

Do you realize they said they are not going to release a lot of books for 5E?

I was wondering when someone would bring that up. Yes. Yes I do realize that.

I doubt 'not many' is going to be as few as they released in 2012-13, though. But, sure, if there are quarters where WotC puts out nothing, Pathfinder will have a shot at outselling them if they time a strong release just right.

But, I really doubt Paizo's as intent on the #1 slot as their fans. They might have to make a show of it to keep the fans' enthusiasm up, though. Playing-to-the-base kinda stuff.

I doubt it will push Paizo into a new strategy because they probably already planned for this eventuality. Even if people stop buying the core rules, there is still the APs, companion lines, novels, and everything else that Paizo has going on.

Here, we're in agreement. Paizo has known about 5e for a long time, and they haven't rushed a Pathfinder 2.0 to market to go head-to-head with it. They may be happy to go back to the 3.5 era status quo of making money on complementary PAs, settings, &c rather than doing the onerous/thankless task of core game design. Maybe, as (in contrast to their fans) Paizo & WotC folks actually get on, they even have reason to believe that the environment going forward will be amenable to that. Heck, maybe they're expecting to get Dragon and Dungeon back? That wouldn't exactly suck, they were good (and /paper/) mags in the Paizo years.

 

[BryonD]

I doubt it will push Paizo into a new strategy because they probably already planned for this eventuality.

Agreed. They are not sitting around waiting to get blind-sided. They are, and have been, doing smart things.
But they will need to continue doing smart things in the future.
Depending on if 5E flops or becomes huge then the smart things will be different.
And I suspect to some extent Paizo *intends* to stay king. So even with smart plans now, a really huge 5E success would drive some change.

Even people who play only 5E will still likely buy one or more of the adventure or companion lines, keeping Paizo in the mix for #1.

I absolutely agree that Paizo has all the tools stay stay very much in the mix.
If the brand value of "Dungeons and Dragons" is reestablished, it could be that no matter how good you are you can only be #1 among the others. (see White Wolf circa 1994)
But that is a big "if" and a lot of scenarios where it is much, much tighter than that.
And if Paizo does win again, it will be a very long time before they are really tested again. (never say never. )

But I completely agree with you. Paizo will do well and remain a key player.

 

[The Black Ranger]

I fully expect them to shoot up to #1 initially, and for a short time after release, but they won't automatically stay there just because they are suddenly publishing books again. I expect that the long term pattern will be them going back and forth with Paizo between #1 and #2 as each goes through a cycle of comparatively mundane books followed by one or two really big products that draw a lot of attention. I don't reject that they will be successful; I just don't think they are going to suddenly become the overwhelming favorite again. The hobby has changed, and it's going to be a lot harder for any single system to reign supreme.

Agreed!

Also, did you see how quick Tony jumped to blame Wizards if the game isn't a huge success? You can't blame Wizards if the populace just isn't interested.

 

[BryonD]

Still haven't seen any data to indicate that there was an unusual drop there. On another thread, though, you can see D&D staying # 1 through the period that you claimed it was 'dropping,' so that's just an indicator that Pathfinder's sales were even lower.

PF sales WERE lower than 4E early on. So?

If you don't have any data, how can you make any claims at all? Don't forget, we had a lot of hate going for us. Powerful hate.

Like I said, full credit for taking advantage of the anti-WotC phenomenon. I don't know if they'd even /want/ credit for fanning the flames, themselves.

It sure is a good thing WotC didn't fan any flames. (I mean, whew, what a relief)

I think the technical term for "taking advantage of the anti-WotC phenomenon" is providing supply to a demand.

 

[Tony Vargas]

PF sales WERE lower than 4E early on. So?

Lower than 4e and Essentials during the period you claimed that 4e/E sales were dropping so alarmingly. That indicates that alarmingly low for D&D was still better than remarkably good for Pathfinder. Again, in case you ever do come up with anything to indicate that such an unusual drop was happening.

If you don't have any data, how can you make any claims at all?

The ranking data is from IcV2 - it's far from definitive, but it's not nothing. Pathfinder didn't take the top spot until after the Essentials roll-out, when the pace of new D&D releases slowed to a crawl. It didn't hold that spot consistently until D&D product stopped, entirely.

I think the technical term for "taking advantage of the anti-WotC phenomenon" is providing supply to a demand.

Yes. It doesn't matter /why/ there's demand for something, only that there's demand, and that you step in with something that fills it.

 

[Erik Mona]

This thread may not be a full on edition war, but it definitely prominently features at least one edition warrior….

 

[Rygar]

Still haven't seen any data to indicate that there was an unusual drop there. On another thread, though, you can see D&D staying # 1 through the period that you claimed it was 'dropping,' so that's just an indicator that Pathfinder's sales were even lower.

The PHB2 was according to wikipedia the #28 book on the USA today best seller list. The #27 book was "A lion called Christian". USA today later released total sales for 2009, and "A lion called Christian" sold 130,286. In order to sell that many units, it had spent 5 weeks on the list, the PHB2 spent one week. As we know that the book that immediately preceeded the PHB2 on the list sold 130,000 units and we know the PHB2 did not reappear on that list again, we can say with near certainty that the PHB2 did not sell 130,000 units.

Since we know that it took "A lion called Christian" 5 weeks to sell 130,000 units, we can say that it averaged approximately 26,000 units per week on the list. Now it is important to note that books sell more units on release day and fewer units as time goes on, so there is a margin of error there. We can't really come up with a accurate figure for the week in question, but we can say with certainty that "A lion called Christian" did not sell 130,000 units in that one week as it appeared on the list for 5 weeks.

As such, we can say with certainty that not only did the PHB2 not sell 130,000 units it sold substantially fewer than 130,000 units, with a lower bound of around 26,000 units with low confidence on accuracy for the lower bound. There is of course the potential that the PHB2 had an extremely unusual long-tail that allowed it to sell many more units, but there's no reason to believe that is the case as we know that WOTC reacted to sales figures by releasing Heinsoo and greenlighting the development of Essentials that year, an event that is unlikely if they were seeing non-standard sales trends.

3.0's PHB sold 300,000 units in its first month, and reportedly 500,000 units total.
3.5's PHB sold 250,000 units total reportedly.

So we can say with certainty that the PHB2, released in early 2009 (About 9 months after release?) showed a drop of at least 50% in customers, and possibly a drop of 90% in comparison to 3.5. In comparison to 3.0, the drop in customers was at least 75%, and potentially as much as 95%.

Data exists for 4th edition and it does demonstrate a drop.

http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/...article/42695-facts-figures-2009-revised.html

 

[fjw70]

As I have said before one of the biggest reasons 4e book sales dropped was due to DDI. I don't remember the exact month DDI hit but I do remember that the 4e players around me stopped buying books and just used DDI. Back then you could subscribe for a month, download the tools, and play as long as you want. Of course not everyone playing 4e subscribed to DDI. Many just shared accounts.

This was just one of many bad business decisions WotC made during the 4e era.