D&D 5E Why is WoTc still pushing AP's when the majority of gamers want something else?

Corwin

Explorer
Having taken the time to go back to read through the whole thread, this particular little nugget caught my eye. A rejection of the proposition that the DM'sGuild has oodles of content:

This has already been explained to you before. DM'sGuild material is not legal in AL...
AL? AL?!? I was under the impression your OP contention was that most players were doing homebrew? Why on earth would you drag AL into your argument?

...nor is it allowed at lot's of tables.
And yet it *is* allowed at lots of homebrew tables. Remember those? The ones even you admit WotC has acknowledged as being in the majority? Those ones? So there you go. Lots of tables are using DM'sGuild material. Unless you can provide some numbers to support your claim while refuting mine.
 

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Eubani

Legend
A lot of this wouldnt need to be discussed if WotC included Mechanics and Crunch involved with the flavour of the AP like they said they were going to during the lead up to 5e (eg horror flavour mechanics and crunch in COS) but then again a lot of what we were told we were going to get never eventuated.
 

sydbar

Explorer
My current 5E dm is running a sandbox campaign that we have all been making, but had us go through parts of Out of the Abyss, and now he is going to use some stuff from Storm Kings Thunder.
 

Brandegoris

First Post
According to a Wizards survey, most people run their games using homebrew. Now this can mean anything from using an established setting but giving it your own stamp, or using a completely made up world.

Now Wizards always claimed they were using the surveys to give people what they want but it seems what people want doesn't align with that Wizards wants. When people say they run most of their games using homebrew then you would think they would be jumping to make more regional books, non setting books, and more DM's aids. I think this has been a product of the surveys all along but that's another topic.

So Wizards, we have told you what we want and how we run our games and yet you still try and shove AP's down our throats.

Why?

D&D has ALWAYS produced Adventures as a central feature since its inception. I'm not sure why anyone thinks that would change? Just because they ask what people like doesn't mean they have to stop producing other things as well.
 

Ilbranteloth

Explorer
I bought the Out of the Abyss book and am not a fan. It's too open ended and too difficult. I think it would have been better as a source book/ campaign setting on the Underdark. Honestly I'd rather have smaller modules like they made back in the day. Why are there so few books/products is what I want to know. Is it because this generation wants to download everything for free?

From what I understand, it primarily has to do with economics. The cost of developing and publishing a small module is not all that different than an adventure path. But the single large book has a higher profit margin than several small modules. Which means that you have to sell fewer copies of the large book than the small modules to turn a profit.

There's quite a bit of information around on the fall of TSR and a large amount of the problem was the glut of products they released. It wasn't just a question of quality, or even too many products, it was that the products they were releasing weren't profitable anymore.

I'll point out that while WotC is not publishing modules in the same way as the early years of the hobby, they do release about a dozen independent but somewhat interconnected short modules that relate to the main AP for Adventurer's League. These are now released simultaneously on DMsGuild for very reasonable prices. So they really are targeting that market as well, but in a different way.

That's probably partially because the markets themselves are different. Most of the folks on forums like this are the real enthusiasts that have our own particular wish list for the content and method of delivery. And like me, many of us buy the APs as well, even though I'll never run them as written.

But the AP is packaged for the more casual gamer. The groups that enjoy the game and just need an "instant campaign" that will keep them busy until the characters approach retirement level. The focus of these APs, in my opinion, is driven in part toward the sort o "video game" concept that the players should gain levels and new abilities on a fairly regular basis. To a large degree, that's a primary goal of the players. And if that's the approach your campaign takes, the APs work very well for that.

This approach is a very easy product to produce and sell. Another factor with the AP approach is that it produces an adventure that you can "win." This also plays into a large group of today's players, like folks that jump over (or back and forth) from video games, MtG, etc.

They also work well for newer DMs - they don't require a lot of DM prep, and if you follow the path from Phandelver, it makes the job of learning how to be a DM a simple one, if focused toward one particular style of DMing.

But the biggest factor is still the economics. The more products you publish, the more people pick-and-choose which ones they will purchase. Plus you tend to cannibalize your other products. In a lot of hobby industries, a new product sells something like 80%+ of its total copies in the first year. After that it's just trickle sales. But if you release a new product each month, then those products shorten the potential life of the prior products.

In addition, the larger AP is more profitable, because it costs a smaller percentage per unit to produce. So you don't have to sell as many copies to recoup your costs and start making profit. If you have a 20% margin across all products, then a product that's half the price has to sell roughly twice as many copies to make the same amount of money.
 

Parmandur

Book-Friend
From what I understand, it primarily has to do with economics. The cost of developing and publishing a small module is not all that different than an adventure path. But the single large book has a higher profit margin than several small modules. Which means that you have to sell fewer copies of the large book than the small modules to turn a profit.



There's quite a bit of information around on the fall of TSR and a large amount of the problem was the glut of products they released. It wasn't just a question of quality, or even too many products, it was that the products they were releasing weren't profitable anymore.



I'll point out that while WotC is not publishing modules in the same way as the early years of the hobby, they do release about a dozen independent but somewhat interconnected short modules that relate to the main AP for Adventurer's League. These are now released simultaneously on DMsGuild for very reasonable prices. So they really are targeting that market as well, but in a different way.



That's probably partially because the markets themselves are different. Most of the folks on forums like this are the real enthusiasts that have our own particular wish list for the content and method of delivery. And like me, many of us buy the APs as well, even though I'll never run them as written.



But the AP is packaged for the more casual gamer. The groups that enjoy the game and just need an "instant campaign" that will keep them busy until the characters approach retirement level. The focus of these APs, in my opinion, is driven in part toward the sort o "video game" concept that the players should gain levels and new abilities on a fairly regular basis. To a large degree, that's a primary goal of the players. And if that's the approach your campaign takes, the APs work very well for that.



This approach is a very easy product to produce and sell. Another factor with the AP approach is that it produces an adventure that you can "win." This also plays into a large group of today's players, like folks that jump over (or back and forth) from video games, MtG, etc.



They also work well for newer DMs - they don't require a lot of DM prep, and if you follow the path from Phandelver, it makes the job of learning how to be a DM a simple one, if focused toward one particular style of DMing.



But the biggest factor is still the economics. The more products you publish, the more people pick-and-choose which ones they will purchase. Plus you tend to cannibalize your other products. In a lot of hobby industries, a new product sells something like 80%+ of its total copies in the first year. After that it's just trickle sales. But if you release a new product each month, then those products shorten the potential life of the prior products.



In addition, the larger AP is more profitable, because it costs a smaller percentage per unit to produce. So you don't have to sell as many copies to recoup your costs and start making profit. If you have a 20% margin across all products, then a product that's half the price has to sell roughly twice as many copies to make the same amount of money.


Also, the Wizards "Adventure Paths" are actually more like collections of short modules with a thin connecting plot, than a driving narrative. Just pluck out the minimidiles and use them as is, forget the plot...
 

Ilbranteloth

Explorer
Also, the Wizards "Adventure Paths" are actually more like collections of short modules with a thin connecting plot, than a driving narrative. Just pluck out the minimidiles and use them as is, forget the plot...

I agree with that. Plus they have come with updated rules and a lot of setting information as well. I've purchased all of them, haven't run any of them, but I have taken some ideas and bits here and there out. I've also purchased the majority of the Adventurer's League adventures too.

I actually think that for what they are, they are well done. I don't want to give them impression that they are poor adventures (although I don't like the story and background of Storm King's Thunder at all). All of these adventure "events" have taken place in my Forgotten Realms campaign, just not by the PCs.

For a particular group of players (the majority, most likely), they are exactly what they should be publishing. And I think the sales numbers support that. For folks like me, who love to tweak and go my own way (I'm finishing up my home campaign PHB), it is extremely unlikely that they will come up with much that I'll jump in and use 100%.

In most cases, the most vocal group is a tiny percentage of a company's customer base. But we're vocal because we're the most enthusiastic too. It's just important to recognize that what works best for a company like WotC in today's hobby/entertainment climate may not line up with what we want to see.

Of course, what I want to see probably won't line up with what most of you want to see either.
 

Corpsetaker

First Post
For a particular group of players (the majority, most likely), they are exactly what they should be publishing. And I think the sales numbers support that.

Actually sales numbers only show just that, sales numbers.

Do you think WoTc know the ratio between all D&D players vs how many are buying these AP's?

The answer is no they don't. Also, they don't know what new players would buy had they been given the option.
 

Mistwell

Crusty Old Meatwad (he/him)
Do you think WoTc know the ratio between all D&D players vs how many are buying these AP's?

Yeah they do. Not to exact precision but a pretty darn good approximation. They know how many existed at date X (Cook and Dancey both confirmed that), attrition and gain rates with trend data going back decades, approximate defection numbers to Pathfinder and OSR and other editions, PHB 5e sales numbers, usage numbers at online playing platforms and conventions, and approximate internet discussion rates with controls. And that data can then be combined and compared to AP sales numbers. That's a lot of data to drill down to a fairly good approximation of the answer.
 

pemerton

Legend
Do you think WoTc know the ratio between all D&D players vs how many are buying these AP's?

The answer is no they don't. Also, they don't know what new players would buy had they been given the option.
But you do?

I mean, there are two possibilities here. Either it's all guesswork - in which case why should anyone take your guess more seriously than the guesses you are criticising?

Or else there is knowledge (or, at least, reasonable opinion based on systematic data collection and analysis): in which case, why should anyone think that you are doing a better job of this than WotC? WotC knows how many APs are sold. WotC has all sorts of information about how many D&D players there are (surveys; projections from sales trends; knowledge of organised play; following online trends; etc). What reason do you have for thinking that your preferred approach would be a commercially superior strategy?
 

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