[MENTION=54629]pukunui[/MENTION], add me to the list of fans of the "slow clap" idea. And having Strahd murder Lady Wachter into a vampire spawn if the party spares (is humane and reasonable to) her gives you a conclusion and something for Strahd to do more or less whatever the PCs choose. Either way it could lead to him inviting the players to the castle if he hasn't done that already. "Here, take my carriage. It leaves at dusk, whether you are in it or not." Then he turns into mist or a bat and flies off. I don't necessarily agree with the suggestion that he "goes nuts" on her though. In my opinion he is too cool and in command to lose his temper like that, with the possible exception of Ireena. There is an element of fear in evidence when someone goes ballistic like that, and I think Strahd is scarier and more interesting if he is always cold and confident, like an evil Vulcan.
My party has decided to spend some time at the Wizard of Wines so the druid can prepare Purify Food and Drink and use it tomorrow after a long rest. (She's also looking at casting Plant Growth in the 8-hour ritual form to try to rejuvenate the vineyard. What effect should that have, given that it is not the gems, or should I just moot the question by having Wintersplinter attack, disrupting the spell - see below?) It looks likely that in the meantime Ireena, with Izek and Ismark, along with an escort, will take a wagonload of wine to Krezk this afternoon and secure entrance for our party. So we're talking about splitting the party. They feel pretty secure, which is probably part naivete and part the fact that I have mostly taken kid gloves to them (being that they're all rookies and some are literal kids). I guess my question boils down in part to how, and to what extent, to take the kid gloves off. I don't want to just let them breeze through, but at the same time I don't want to blow them out.
*By the way, I'm thinking about fabricating an encounter along the way with the dire wolf that separated Izek and Ireena when they were children and ate off Izek's arm. A dire wolf is a nothingburger encounter for a 5th level party, but I haven't been able to roleplay I&I interacting and developing a bond. Plus Izek kind of expresses himself by killing things these days. I sort of want the encounter to be almost an Izek set piece that sets up a real I&I moment. Does this sound like a good idea? How would anyone execute it, and how would you make it discernible that this is THAT dire wolf?*
Here is what I am beginning to envision Strahd and co. doing off-screen. Strahd lifted my warlock's pact tome when he charmed him, so he is the target of Strahd's scrying. (Plus a high-charisma modest-wisdom fiend-pact warlock seems like someone who would pique Strahd's interest.) I'm thinking Strahd is on Ireena's tail, one step behind the party. Last night, having chatted with the party yesterday, he conducted the attack on Vallaki. The party never restored the bones (or paid the slightest attention to the church), and they left town with Izek (neutering the Baron), so I'm thinking Strahd and his vampires attacked the town and failed to find Ireena where he had been told she was. Then the following day the Baron still tried to put on the Festival of the Burning Sun, which was such a catastrophe he was lynched and Lady Wachter took over. That brings us to today, the day the party cleared Wizard of Wines. Today Strahd scried on my warlock, found us all together at the winery, and tonight he will appear at Yester Hill for the druids' ritual, raising Wintersplinter. He will accompany the blight to the winery to abscond with Ireena during the chaos, only to find that she is gone again, this time in Krezk. (If she makes it to the pool today I suppose that'll change this since he'll know she's not still at the winery and have no urgency for attending the druids.)
So my question is: am I setting up my PCs for a TPK? They just hit level 5 when they cleared the winery. If our monk, Izek, Ismark, Ireena, and one of the young Martikov wereravens go to Krezk, that leaves the remaining Martikovs with our ranger, druid, and warlock at the winery. It's possible other PCs other than the druid decide to go with the Krezk group, but we don't want to leave the druid to make her way to Krezk (tomorrow) alone. Can the winery crew (and the winery) survive Wintersplinter? Should they? What should Strahd's involvement be, particularly once he realizes Ireena isn't there after all? In Krezk, if Ireena finds her way to the pool and goes with Sergei, Izek probably loses it. Can Ismark and a L5 monk survive him? Should they? Wintersplinter clearly can't be negotiated with, so it's fight, flee (and abandon the winery), or die. Izek probably can't either.
Is this all a reasonable depiction of Barovia's response to these meddling adventurers, and I should just let the dice fall where they fall, or should I relax the timetable a little bit? I guess one thing I'm worried about is feeling like the Wintersplinter attack needs to happen soon. Two druids escaped from the winery, so Yester Hill at least will be motivated to get the ritual going; it's less clear what Strahd's urgency is. The players aren't presently that interested in going to Yester Hill, and if that doesn't change and Wintersplinter is summoned, the winery will be destroyed off-screen, and that's an outcome that can't be reversed. I am trying to incorporate the "points of light" concept (the details of my implementation of which are beyond the scope of this already overlong post), and the full restoration of the winery is critical to that. I want to give the players a fair chance to save the winery, but I don't want to ignore the logic of the other people in the world who are interacting with them and the exigencies they are creating.
And one more thing. Our card reading indicated that the Holy Symbol is in "a fortress inside a fortress, in a place hidden behind fire." Our players are hot to trot to get to Krezk, thinking the Abbey is the fortress inside a fortress. This isn't implausible to me (the card actually refers to the treasury in Castle Ravenloft). I don't mind the Holy Symbol residing there (otherwise all the relics are in the Castle, which is daunting). I haven't looked at the Abbey much to see if there is a reasonable place to fit the whole description, but assuming something could work, would you recommend moving the Holy Symbol to the Abbey?