Hriston
Dungeon Master of Middle-earth
So as pointed out, 3d6 in order became how 'normal' people were generated, and the other methods were simply shortcuts to getting ability scores that were 'better than' normal on average.
What do you base this conclusion on? One other method you don't seem to be mentioning here was actually how the scores of 'normal' people were generated, not 3d6, which is only mentioned in AD&D with reference to 'special' characters, not 'normal' people.
Yes, we can model characteristics of populations, and they conform to a bell curve. Yes, real world populations have bell curves which are flatter than that generated by 3d6.
I think you mean steeper, don't you, with more specimens conforming to the average and fewer at the extremes?
To this end, Gygax introduced the 'average' die (where 1=3 and 6=4, to get six results on a d6 of 2,3,3,4,4,5) in order to get a more flattened bell curve if the 3d6 bell curve (and its greater proportion of extremes) bothered you.
Right, which is the origin of the only method Gygax ever proposed for the random generation of scores for members of the general population, and not as an alternative to use if 3d6 "bothered" you, but the only proposed method.
It should be noted, as it was noted earlier in this thread, that the authors of the early modules also used 3d6 for NPC ability scores.
Really? Which ones? Were they 0-level NPCs, or did they have character classes?
Some even outright stated that you rolled 3d6 in order if you needed to generate an NPC.
Did they? What sort of NPC were they talking about, a commoner or a classed NPC?
The City State of the Invincible Overlord had every single inhabitant with stats rolled on 3d6, not '3d-average', and their scores did indeed range from 3 to 18.
I haven't read that setting, but I find it doubtful that Judges Guild published their methodology for determining the scores of NPCs. Also, extreme scores are not themselves evidence that the general population is represented by one method or another. The NPCs in question may have been conceived of as extremely rare individuals. Did they have classes?
In the editions since then, there has been no refutation of the 'truth' of 3d6 in order for the general population.
It's very telling that you put 'truth' in quotation marks. This so-called truth was never officially asserted, so required no refutation.
Every single piece of evidence in every edition remained and remains consistent with that, from the 'commoner' stats to the tables of ability scores which state that 10 or 10-11 was 'average.
Since you seem to understand the averaging method, then I don't need to tell you it has the same average as 3d6, and that average scores like 10 and 11 are far more likely to result, so I don't think this helps your case any.
Even in 5E it states that scores are between 3 and 18.
You misunderstand. I'm not arguing against the assertion that 3-18 is the full range of human ability scores. I think that's been established as a defining feature of the game for many years. I'm arguing against the assertion that 3d6 adequately represents the distribution of those scores in the general population. I haven't seen any compelling evidence that this is the case.