On a different note, I have chosen to run the adventure in the autumn. The Day of Wonders is on the 3rd of Marpenoth. I'm having trouble deciding how far ahead of that date to start the adventure. A tenday? Two tendays? I feel like I ought to have the Day of Wonders occur *before* the fireball, as there's not much time for it to happen afterwards.
Basically, how much time should I allow for chapter 2?
I have been trying to plot out the timeline on a calendar as well. I will have my PCs complete a few sandboxy quests (utilizing a notice board format/rumors) first before Dragon Heist formally begins, but here is the Dragon Heist timeline I have so far:
10th of Eleint - The Stone of Golorr is stolen
12th of Eleint - Gang war erupts between Zhents and Xanathar
14th of Eleint - Floon goes missing
16th of Eleint - Volo hires the PCs (Missing notice is also posted for Renaer on their board at the beginning of this session)
23rd of Eleint - the Sea Maiden's Faire arrives (PCs will see a flyer on their notice board advertising the upcoming parade and opening of the faire). I chose to have this occur after Chapter 1 because Bregan D'aerthe is not directly involved in those events. However any spies Jaraxle has in the city may be communicating him and hurrying him on his way to Waterdeep.
26th of Eleint - Once in Waterdeep AL adventure occurs tweaked to my own campaign. The McGuffin is a stone eye, one of three that fits into the blinded Stone of Golorr, and act as vault keys. The other eyes will probably be in villain lairs (1 in Sylgar's fishbowl in the Xanathar's lair, the last is undecided). This event will occur as a free-for-all with several faction agents (the villains' underlings plus the PCs who are working for a custom faction of my own) vying to acquire the stone eye during the midst of Bighat's show.
3rd of Marpenoth - Day of Wonder. I will have events occur around this. Maybe some haywire creations, the escaped bear, and the opening of the Sea Maiden's Faire (carnival games, etc.)
15th of Marpenoth - God's Day. I am thinking of having the fireball hit on this day. It might be all the more shocking since magic is frowned upon on this reverent holiday. Before and/or after this date the PCs will have to acquire the Stone and the other two eyes (assuming they acquired the first eye at Bighat's show).
30th of Marpenoth - Liar's Night. Using someone else's suggestion, I am relocating the Vault to Castle Waterdeep and staging a Masquerade Ball on Liar's Night. PCs will have to acquire an invitation and infiltrate, and then find and access the Vault while duping other villains (primarily Jaraxle) and the Watch.
My PCs (one of whom is a dwarf) should have the ultimate goal of acquiring the gold for their own faction (the 'deep Delvers - a disenfranchised group of Dwarves and other small folk who have suffered in the slums of Undercliff since the Warrens collapsed and left them bereft of their subterranean home. Their dwarven leader, a mafia style crime boss called the Thane, wants to use the gold to become a Masked Lord and give the smallfolk a voice in Waterdeep).
This timeline gives the PCs about a month and a half between the events of Chapter 1 and the culmination of the adventure. It gives them roughly 15 days between the fireball and the Masquerade Ball. I am trying to minimize the McGuffin hunt and maximize the heist elements of the adventure.