In the worst case scenario, the PCs travel 9 hours, everyone fails their con saves and gets a level of exhaustion... Then they make camp, take a long rest, and that level of exhaustion goes away. Best case scenario, everyone succeeds on their con saves and you can press on for another hour. Basically, since you lose exhaustion levels at a rate of 1/day, your first exhaustion level each day is “free.”
That all is IF they don't get significantly attacked in the rest period. If an orc warband comes through, they don't get their rest, and are now left with a level of exhaustion that doesn't get cleared.
And, that's a choice - if they are not generally getting assaulted in the night, you are right, that optimizing for the "happy path" will get them farther per day. If they are a little more conservative, they'll optimize for reliably not having any exhaustion, ever.
Also note that the presence of a barbarian with Frenzy Rage will lean them towards the conservative, because such a character also generates exhaustion for themselves...