Okay, so there's 2 things with that. 1: Technically Firebolt isn't a candidate to be twinned per the Sage Advice Compendium. Is it dumb? Yes. But that's how it is. 2: The probability calculations are a bit off. .6 is assuming the damage is a uniform thing between the two rounds but it's actually back-loaded where the higher damage is on round 2 with scorching rays. True strike increases the probability of the two scorching rays by an amount (that I need to reference) but firebolt just increases potential damage output. Like I said, it's worse if the scorching rays miss which they might compared to advantage.