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D&D 5E 2 year campaign down the drain?

Now here's where I am mentally. WHAT DO I DO?! I mean I try to run my game with integrity and logic. I ask myself "What would happen if this decision was made" then go with it. All of the decisions that the PCs made led them to this point with my thought process. But was I too harsh on those decisions? I feel like if I just let them succeed these rolls then they would think the story doesn't matter and not take anything seriously. Now I'm left in this story where our party murdered 4 guards, a Lord, kidnapped at least 50 nobles and 30 commoners, and commandeered a ship outside a major trade city! I mean wont they be wanted criminals now in every major city? The witnesses saw their faces and they heard 2 of their names. Any advice on how to salvage this campaign... at least until the story is over?!

In my view, you are way too hung up on "your story."

When people say D&D tells a story, usually they don't mean it's a pre-planned story that the players act out. They mean it's universe the players make decisions in, and after it's all over you can tell the story of what happened.

Screw your story. The game is telling a new story now. Go with that story.

So now they have witnesses they need to deal with. Do they bribe the witnesses, threaten them, obtain disguises to take on a new identity, come up with another bluff, frame some baddies who that can use deception to claim those baddies were disguised as the PCs? Let the players know there are witnesses and there is a flaw with their plan and let them decide how to deal with that challenge.

If it ends them in prison, then that will be the next challenge. If it ends them fleeing the town or being run out on a rail, that's the next challenge. If it ends in them allying themselves with the bad guys, run with that. If it ends with them infiltrating the bad guys and later using the attack on the guards as the unfortunate justification of circumstances they needed for said infiltration, run with that. Just let the game go where it's going to go. Give the players the freedom to break out from the plan.

Here is an example from one of our games:

Literally our best game session ever involved my group arriving in town at the docks with a complete adventure planned by the DM. DM had prepped an adventure path for months before this first session.

When the PCs stepped onto the docks they saw a pirate ship docked there with a bunch of orc pirates on the ship. This was all purely color the DM was using to describe the docks. It was not part of the adventure, just really a town description to set the mood.

And then our paladin charged up the gangplank and attacked the orcs unexpectedly.

And so the party followed him. And we were in a huge pitched battle which the DM had to throw together on the fly.

And against the odds, we won. The paladin did, alas, die valiantly in the battle he started.

But the city guard was on the way. And we had a ship. So...we sailed away.

And that was that. Months of planning thrown in the garbage. So the DM just grabbed another adventure which took place on an island, and that's where we sailed to.

And it was a total blast!

And that DM never planned that in depth more than a session or two in advance again. But we've never noticed.

So the moral of the story is just let your players go play the adventure they want to play, and you adapt as best you can on the fly. Your players will appreciate it, and after a while you will too.
 
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Of course previous fiction exists. How else would they know they needed or wanted the book? In most cases (after the opening story arc) it was established in most cases by the players and the GM.
A bit of goalpost moving. The specific was that the previously established fiction was that the book was in the hope chest. Of course there's previous fiction -- it's a game that build fictional stories.

The actual example was that the GM has notes that the book is in the Captain's chest, but the players try to establish that it's in the Daughter's hope chest. This, already, precludes your suggesting that the fiction is in a different shape and points to the daughter's chest. But, even if we assume that, the issue still exists -- it's just moved further back up the chain to how did the knowledge that the book was in the daughter's chest come to be established. We can move there and ask the same question -- was it because the GM decided this, or was it established by the players? Arguing that it's previously established kicks the can and doesn't address the example.



I don't think @pemerton is denigrating 5E, though he admits to not knowing the game as well as someone who plays it regularly. I think the game is more flexible in practice than he does, seems to be our major point of difference. I don't think he's denigrating my style of play, either, for that matter.
It's not more flexible, at least in the terms @pemerton is discussing it. I love and play 5e, and he's 100% right -- it does not allow players to establish binding fictional outcomes through the action declaration mechanics. Those mechanics in 5e are explicitly "GM decides."

I guess it doesn't feel as though I'm gatekeeping, because so much of my deciding, and keeping track of what you're calling "secret fiction," and suchlike, seems to happen on an unconscious (or preconscious) level. Most of the time I don't know what the secret fiction is until it comes out of my mouth (or otherwise becomes apparent).
Of, for sure. Practice makes perfect, after all. I'm certain you've a long history of running games based on secret fiction (IIRC, you ran FATE based on secret fiction, which is still amazing to me), and you've learned over that time many tips and tricks on how to do it well. I know I have, both in length and depth of experience. I'm quite adept at running games based on secret fiction, and I'm sure you are as well. And, if that's all you've done or even the majority of your experience, it tends to put on blinders to other ways of doing things. I know I had a hard time making the switch.

I bounced off of Burning Wheel the first time I looked at it (I've still not run or played it, but I grok it better). I bounced off of skill challenges in 4e. Kept thinking in terms of secret fiction and couldn't align how it's more freeform approach could work with secret fiction (it doesn't). I managed to finally make the jump when I became interested in Blades in the Dark and had access to people, like @pemerton, who championed different approaches to playing. I violently disagreed with @pemerton on these exact kinds of topics just a few (maybe more, now?) years ago. Then, it clicked, and I not only see how different approached to play than secret fiction work, but how secret fiction is anathema to those approaches.

And, it's made me more honest about how 5e and similar games work. It doesn't make those game worse, it just means there are different games. I still very much enjoy 5e, but I'm not blinkered that it's a flexible game system. It does D&D very well, and D&D is a broad category of things, but it's also a pretty narrow approach to RPGs in that it's universally built on the GM decides as the core and only resolution mechanic. That makes it flexible, so long as you're doing GM decides play, but it does not, at all, accommodate non-GM-decides play. The only time D&D has changed this approach was with 4e, and there are plenty of threads of disagreement on that topic, if you'd care to look for them.
 

A bit of goalpost moving. The specific was that the previously established fiction was that the book was in the hope chest. Of course there's previous fiction -- it's a game that build fictional stories.

The actual example was that the GM has notes that the book is in the Captain's chest, but the players try to establish that it's in the Daughter's hope chest. This, already, precludes your suggesting that the fiction is in a different shape and points to the daughter's chest. But, even if we assume that, the issue still exists -- it's just moved further back up the chain to how did the knowledge that the book was in the daughter's chest come to be established. We can move there and ask the same question -- was it because the GM decided this, or was it established by the players? Arguing that it's previously established kicks the can and doesn't address the example.

As I said, I don't as a rule run or plan so granularly as that. When I say "I know where it is" I mean in a more narrative sense--they need to go to the captain to get it. I might decide whether he keeps it in his house or on his ship, but I'm not going to decide whether it's in his daughter's hope chest or n his duffel or anything so specific until/unless I need to narrate the PCs finding it. I think part of the problem we're having communicating here is that to an extent this isn't a meaningful question in my games.

It's not more flexible, at least in the terms @pemerton is discussing it. I love and play 5e, and he's 100% right -- it does not allow players to establish binding fictional outcomes through the action declaration mechanics. Those mechanics in 5e are explicitly "GM decides."

My point is that it is more flexible in play. The absence of mechanics for the players to establish things in-fiction doesn't mean they're powerless in the face of The Almighty DM, either.

Practice makes perfect, after all. I'm certain you've a long history of running games based on secret fiction (IIRC, you ran FATE based on secret fiction, which is still amazing to me), and you've learned over that time many tips and tricks on how to do it well.

I don't know that I exactly ran Fate based on secret fiction. I do know that I stopped using compels unless I needed the equivalent of a GM Fiat, and let the players spend their Fate Points in the knowledge there'd eventually be a Refresh, and I tended to have things going on in the world that didn't always come into the campaign in the ways the players expected. I know I'm not the kind of antagonistic GM that Fate seems to want if not require. I know that if I were to play Fate, having the GM Compel my character would be blindingly enraging. That's probably less about the game than about me. I do think that running that game, which explicitly engaged (or tried to) the players in worldbuilding and shaping the campaign has left me wanting to be the only voice in the larger picture, but willing to follow the players'/characters' interests as far as where the campaign goes.

And, it's made me more honest about how 5e and similar games work. It doesn't make those game worse, it just means there are different games. I still very much enjoy 5e, but I'm not blinkered that it's a flexible game system. It does D&D very well, and D&D is a broad category of things, but it's also a pretty narrow approach to RPGs in that it's universally built on the GM decides as the core and only resolution mechanic. That makes it flexible, so long as you're doing GM decides play, but it does not, at all, accommodate non-GM-decides play. The only time D&D has changed this approach was with 4e, and there are plenty of threads of disagreement on that topic, if you'd care to look for them.

I guess it seems to me that sometimes when you (and maybe @pemerton ) talk about "DM-decides play" you mean the DM is deciding on the story elements, not just the resolution of character actions. That's probably not what y'all mean, and it's certainly not how I GM.
 

Any advice on how to salvage this campaign... at least until the story is over?!

So I would agree with posters who say this is no big problem and instead sounds interesting and exciting. You don’t have a car crash on your hands but instead some opportunities for memorable situations.

My first advice is don’t get bogged down with strict interpretations of alignment or lofty thoughts about GM vs Player narrative drive... these are age old debates that depend entirely on you and your tables approach and will only complicate things and derail them further. Instead I will offer you some thoughts based on my opinions of The North setting for SKT and the context of the action.

1. The North is a brutal and barbaric place, full of wandering tribes, dangerous weather and monsters. There a small bastions of civilization like Silverymoon and Sundabar but largely these are the exception not the norm. These groups are loosely allied through the Lords Alliance whose agents try and keep the individual settlements working together... however the distance and the danger means that this is difficult. There is no overarching authority to condemn the PCs.

2. The majority of folks don’t have organized police forces, there is no FBI to cross state boundaries. People would rely on a Lord’s action or the equivalent of a bounty hunter for justice. Maybe an adventuring party would be asked to help. I’m not sure which settlement the Riverboat heist took place in but it’s reasonable for the lord of that settlement to seek to bring the party to justice. How they do that and what agents they have to enact that justice is difficult. However dispel notions of a modern police force and justice system from your mind. If they leave that settlement then rumour may have spread but there is no automatic assumption that the guards of sundabar would know the details of a crime in silverymoon. To do that the authorities in Silverymoon would need to be persuaded that the crime was serious (probably is) that the party was responsible (depends on their actions) and that then they would need to task agents to travel to every other location to warn them that the party is loose and more so persuade each settlement that they also need to expend time and resources to apprehend the party. This could take months. Hastily copied descriptions, and hand copied sketches of players are the best that can be expected. In the North don’t expect to see Wanted Posters on every tree!

3. Remember this is in a land where zhentarim, dragon cults, orc invasions and rampaging monsters are regularly killing whole villages. More so the North is currently undergoing a spate of giant attacks... it is quite possible the agents of the Lords Alliance have other things on their mind. Keep this perspective in mind when describing NPCs reactions to the party if the rumor comes out. Also don’t forget that plenty of NPCs are not paragons of virtue themselves. Maybe they need to go to the Zhentarim for supplies and weapons. When giants are flattening villages you may have to work with some people you don’t like.

4. The party were certainly bloodthirsty in killing the noble and the guards. However keep this in perspective. Proprietors of gambling halls are rarely the most innocent of individuals. Such places are magnets for crime, desperate people and extreme wealth rarely brings out the best in people. Some things to think about... why is the gambling on a boat, is it disapproved of by regular folk? If the Lord has knowledge of the giant attacks but hasn’t shared it, why? Was he trying to profit off the attacks in some way... loaning money to people whose homes have been destroyed. A plausible story for why the party attacked might be sufficient to allow them to justify their actions. Maybe not in the settlement itself but certainly 100 miles away in the next settlement.

5. As a general rule, outside Waterdeep adventuring parties (certainly ones of their level) are almost impossible for authorities to catch. They would rely on other adventurers to do the dirty work and apprehend them. There are plenty of situations in frontier life where known murderers were able to function normally because people were scared of them. Until someone more dangerous came along (pretty much every Wild West film conceived!)

6. Justice is generally up to a lord or council. Formal codes of law are rare. That’s why Waterdeeps Code Legal is printed, because it is unusual. Most legal systems depend on a lords justice (or the equivalent). A practical lord may decide to commute an unenforceable sentence on the basis that the giant threat is greater and agree to pardon their crime provided they serve the greater good. (That doesn’t stop individual nobles wanting revenge). Plenty of adventure start with this plot hook... it is refreshing to see in this case the party willingly went into it rather than being tricked.

7. Lastly as this post is getting long. The party can own it. Geralt of Rivia is called the Butcher of Blaviken, it doesn’t stop people associating with him or asking him for help. In fact it gives him an edge. Do the party do enough good things to make some people give a different story. Do they make contacts around them that mean they have people who will help them, or give them a second chance.

The giant threat is getting worse and is a real and immediate threat to life. By focusing on this goal, the party can still be successful and not get derailed. The Riverboat massacre can certainly add complications but doesn’t need to end the campaign. Of course the suggestions above are just my impressions. In your world there might be printing presses, regular magical communication and the Lords Alliance might be like the federal govt with a good well funded crime agency. That’s your call.

Good luck and if you get chance tell us how it was resolved. We rarely get to here that bit!
 

As I said, I don't as a rule run or plan so granularly as that. When I say "I know where it is" I mean in a more narrative sense--they need to go to the captain to get it. I might decide whether he keeps it in his house or on his ship, but I'm not going to decide whether it's in his daughter's hope chest or n his duffel or anything so specific until/unless I need to narrate the PCs finding it. I think part of the problem we're having communicating here is that to an extent this isn't a meaningful question in my games.
You've moved the pea, again. You flat out say, here, that the players need to go to the captain to get the book. This is the GM deciding secret fiction, which he may then reveal to the players when the GM feels it appropriate. I'm sure you have some way for the players to learn this fact. Then, you say that you're not going to write down in your notes the exact location of the book, but will determine, in the moment, when the fiction resolves for the players. The players don't resolve the fiction in any binding way, you decide.

Let's look at this another way. Let's say we have some previously established fiction (however established) such that the players are searching the ship for a book. A player declares that the book is in the daughter's hope chest and they are searching for it there. In 5e, the resolution of this is entirely up to the GM. The GM may have notes on the precise location of the book and will tell the player success or failure based on those note. Or, as you indicate, the GM may make such a determination on the fly according to the GM's sense of the dramatic and will indicate success or failure based on this. Or, the GM may allow that it's random and ask for a check to see if the book is in the chest or not. In all of these cases, the GM is deciding how the fiction unfolds from the player's action declaration for their character.

Instead, let's say that the GM does not decide anything at all. Instead, the GM's authority is limited to either accepting the player's assertion, because this isn't terribly interesting, and agreeing it is true -- the book is in the hope chest -- OR the GM may call for a test of the action and be bound by the results of that test. If successful, then the book is in the chest. If not, then the GM may narrate an outcome contrary to the intent of the player, either by introducing complication or outright thwarting the intent.

These are very different ways to play. The latter gives the players authority over the fiction and a way to bind the GM's decision-making authority. This is utterly lacking in 5e. And, if you move past the location of an item and realize the implications of this on a wider scale, you have very different outcomes from play. In the above example, the reason the characters were looking on the ship at all would be because, in prior play, they either succeeded in establishing the book was on the ship or they failed, and the book being on the ship was a complication to a previous action declaration. And so on and so forth. The upshot is that no one knows where the book was until it was resolved.


My point is that it is more flexible in play. The absence of mechanics for the players to establish things in-fiction doesn't mean they're powerless in the face of The Almighty DM, either.
It's not. The GM may be more or less flexible, but the system isn't because the system just says the GM decides. And, players are powerless, here. It's only by social convention and agreement or the GM allowing it that they have any input into action resolution or the fiction of the game. This is easily determined because the rules give authority over outcomes solely to the GM and with almost no constraints. The rules literally start off describing the play loop as player declares PC action and then the GM decides if it succeeds outright, fails outright, or the GM thinks the outcome is uncertain, at which point they call for a check they, the GM, thinks applies and sets the difficulty. Regardless of the path chosen, the GM narrates the outcome. The only input the player has here is to declare an action. The results of that are entirely up to the GM.

Now, that said, there are a number of more or less principled ways to approach this kind of play and make it work well. Primary among them is "don't be a jerk." There's also attempting to adhere to a coherent worldview for GM decision making so players can have some sense of the odds. You could also be up front about stakes as a GM so players are always well informed. But, ultimately, this is the GM sharing power and it's always up to the GM.

So, 5e is flexible in the sense that the GM has a wide variety of genres that can be leveraged. It's flexible in that the GM has a wide latitude on how the GM wants to deal with the secret fiction. It's not flexible if you're going to suggest players have input into the fiction that binds the GM. There are entirely styles of play outright impossible in 5e.


I don't know that I exactly ran Fate based on secret fiction. I do know that I stopped using compels unless I needed the equivalent of a GM Fiat, and let the players spend their Fate Points in the knowledge there'd eventually be a Refresh, and I tended to have things going on in the world that didn't always come into the campaign in the ways the players expected. I know I'm not the kind of antagonistic GM that Fate seems to want if not require. I know that if I were to play Fate, having the GM Compel my character would be blindingly enraging. That's probably less about the game than about me. I do think that running that game, which explicitly engaged (or tried to) the players in worldbuilding and shaping the campaign has left me wanting to be the only voice in the larger picture, but willing to follow the players'/characters' interests as far as where the campaign goes.

Yup, you ran it like a D&D game, but with slightly different rules, and entirely left off the single most interesting part of FATE -- the one that strongly enables player input into the fiction. As I recall, you also had a pretty strong plot thread you started with and then played through rather than letting play go where it will. It's a very GM-has-the-authority way to play, and FATE really does better being less GM centered. Which is where compels come in and your resistance to them and characterization of them very much indicate you haven't yet grokked how they're intended to work and what kinds of play they enable. Which is fine -- I didn't get it for quite some time, either, and the fact I do get it now isn't a matter of smarts or whatever but more dumb luck. An idea stuck and grew.
I guess it seems to me that sometimes when you (and maybe @pemerton ) talk about "DM-decides play" you mean the DM is deciding on the story elements, not just the resolution of character actions. That's probably not what y'all mean, and it's certainly not how I GM.
Not in this thread, no. It can, as the GM has total authority over that in 5e as well, but here I'm talking only about action resolution and the introduction of fiction through action resolution.

To relate to the OP, the issue the OP is having is that the resolution of actions has led to a point where the GM doesn't know how to reconcile the preconceived plot arc with the outcome of the action. There's a conflict between how the GM thought the story should go and how the GM decided the action resolved. This is incoherent, as the GM has total authority over both in 5e. The solution, at this point, is singular -- alter the way you expected the story to go and incorporate the outcome of the action and move forward. The OP is hesitant here because they fear doing so will encourage the players to derail the plot in the future (specifically one player?). Prior to this happening, however, and in any future events, the OP can exert better control over action outcomes and limit outcomes that cause severe distortions. For instance, here the OP is having an issue because a PC both showed their face to bystanders and used real PC names while trying to calm witnesses to PC actions that would have severe negative consequences with the authorities that be. Okay. The GM has the player intent well in hand -- convince the bystanders that someone else is to blame. Yet, the GM has also decided this is an automatic failure based on face-showing and name-saying. They could have decided it was uncertain, negotiated or fixed by fiat a check and difficulty, and followed the dice. On a failure, you're in the same place, and consequences exist, but at least the player had knowledge that consequences were on the line and a chance to come up with an approach or use a resource to better achieve their goal.

No one's perfect, and I don't fault the OP -- this is hard stuff even for vets. The other side is to adapt the story and deal with these consequences.

Personally, I like oversharing information. When the owner of the boat fled at first, I would have volunteered a recollection that there are many armed guards and the owner was running down the passage calling for them and not let the arrival of guards be a surprise. Should the players guess this outcome? After all, it's logical. Maybe, but then you're in the place of hoping players guess what you think they should. Overshare. You could give the players your notes, unredacted, and they'll probably still screw it up by the numbers. Well, I could, because I don't hinge my challenges on not knowing a bit of information. You can know everything there is to know and it'll still be a challenge. Doing is not the same as knowing.
 

There is some massive over-complication going on here.

The lord is dead.

The DM needs to come up with a new method to obtain clues to missing giant king.

He needs to come up with some responses/consequences to the attack on the boat to take account of their decision and keep the plausibility of the world while not detailing the campaign arc by changing the campaign into Prison Break series 2.

It doesn’t have to be any more complicated than that.
 

The players can make the stakes of the resolution "would we find the widget if it was here?" The players can make the stakes of the resolution "Can we figure out if the widget will do the thing?
That was intentional, to establish what the players could establish.
Taking your examples at face value, that is not very much.

Let's suppose that the GM has decided that the widget is at place X. Then if the players can bring it about that their PCs are at place X - which itself is a whole lot of action resolution that might be resolved via the same methods we're discussing - they might be able to get the GM to answer the question, to which only s/he has the answer, whether or not the widget is at X.

In this way of playing, the GM is the one with the (much) greater control over what occurs in the fiction.

Part of what goes into my prep is thinking about things enough that I can (usually) have the results of whatever actions the characters take be reasonable. If the characters have been tasked with recovering a McGuffin, there are many ways they can go about it. If in the course of casing the joint they make social contact and manage to talk their way into acquiring the McGuffin, that seems like a reasonable outcome
I'm not likely to be as granular as all-a-that: They'd probably find information indicating the captain had it, and if they were in a position to search his home they'd find it in, if you prefer, his daughter's hope chest. Or, not, if the captain didn't have it, or he had it in some other place (his quarters on his ship, for instance).

<snip>

I'm not usually so specific about where whatever the characters are looking for is, and I'm certainly not fixated on there only being one path to getting to it.
I'm not entirely sure what you're saying here.

On the one hand, you seem to be saying that if the players want to find the widget and sincerely look for it in some place (like the captain's daughter's hope chest) then they'll find it. Or they won't. Because as a GM, while you're not specific, you do think these things through during your prep and you might decide that the captain does not have the widget, and nor does his daughter, or they do have it but somewhere else.

I'm not getting a clear sense of how all this is playing, but to me it does seem to reinforce that the players can't, themselves, establish very much.

I think there's an argument that if the PCs start the lethal violence, it's on the PCs. An enemy who wants to kill you and isn't trying to now, isn't an enemy you need to kill now.
I'm talking about the players rather than the PCs. (Or, if you prefer, I'm interested in the PCs as mechanical and fictional vehilces whereby the players engage the shared fiction.)

What I'm saying is that if the GM is the principal, or only, participant who can establish what signifcant things happens in the fiction (like whether or not the widget is at place X), then s/he has a big responsibility. If the players's PCs end up at place Z, and the players have them look for the widget there, it is on the GM that they fail to find it. And it's on the GM to establish whatever consequence of failure follows from that.

If the GM decides that bodyguards turn up, s/he is practically asking for a rumble! Especially in a RPG, like D&D 5e, where the one clear exception to this GM-driven approch to deciding what happens is the combat resolution system.

If the GM doesn't want the fighting, don't introduce the bodyguards. There are very many other things that can happen when someone looks in place Z for a widget that is not there.
 

These are very different ways to play. The latter gives the players authority over the fiction and a way to bind the GM's decision-making authority. This is utterly lacking in 5e. And, if you move past the location of an item and realize the implications of this on a wider scale, you have very different outcomes from play. In the above example, the reason the characters were looking on the ship at all would be because, in prior play, they either succeeded in establishing the book was on the ship or they failed, and the book being on the ship was a complication to a previous action declaration. And so on and so forth. The upshot is that no one knows where the book was until it was resolved.

In my experience they don't play as differently as all that. The players have authority over their characters; the DM has authority over everything else. In Fate, neither is so absolute, but the amount of authority is the same.

The GM may be more or less flexible, but the system isn't because the system just says the GM decides. And, players are powerless, here. It's only by social convention and agreement or the GM allowing it that they have any input into action resolution or the fiction of the game. This is easily determined because the rules give authority over outcomes solely to the GM and with almost no constraints. The rules literally start off describing the play loop as player declares PC action and then the GM decides if it succeeds outright, fails outright, or the GM thinks the outcome is uncertain, at which point they call for a check they, the GM, thinks applies and sets the difficulty. Regardless of the path chosen, the GM narrates the outcome. The only input the player has here is to declare an action. The results of that are entirely up to the GM.

Now, that said, there are a number of more or less principled ways to approach this kind of play and make it work well. Primary among them is "don't be a jerk." There's also attempting to adhere to a coherent worldview for GM decision making so players can have some sense of the odds. You could also be up front about stakes as a GM so players are always well informed. But, ultimately, this is the GM sharing power and it's always up to the GM.

That's a lot of words to say that the game is as flexible as the DM is, which means it can be very flexible indeed (or rigid as granite).

Yup, you ran it like a D&D game, but with slightly different rules, and entirely left off the single most interesting part of FATE -- the one that strongly enables player input into the fiction. As I recall, you also had a pretty strong plot thread you started with and then played through rather than letting play go where it will. It's a very GM-has-the-authority way to play, and FATE really does better being less GM centered. Which is where compels come in and your resistance to them and characterization of them very much indicate you haven't yet grokked how they're intended to work and what kinds of play they enable. Which is fine -- I didn't get it for quite some time, either, and the fact I do get it now isn't a matter of smarts or whatever but more dumb luck. An idea stuck and grew.

No, I ran it like a Fate game. I actually ran it with more player input into the world, especially at setting creation, than even Fate Core seems to envision. It was mostly freeform, or I tried to make it so; the characters had ability to go wherever they wanted in the setting, and there were plenty of times when they defined what the adventure was right before I ran it. It's clear that part of my problem with Fate is that the people I played it with didn't get it or didn't embrace parts of it. Running Fate with players who don't want to author anything, who want to save their Fate Points for bonuses or re-rolls, especially if you as a GM don't like telling players what their characters do (Compelling) gets tiring quickly. I guess it's fairer to say the players didn't play it like a Fate game in a lot of ways. It's also fair and accurate that the setting felt muddled to me (everyone wanted different things in the setting), trying to keep things coherent enough that I could run the game was a lot of mental effort.

To relate to the OP, the issue the OP is having is that the resolution of actions has led to a point where the GM doesn't know how to reconcile the preconceived plot arc with the outcome of the action. There's a conflict between how the GM thought the story should go and how the GM decided the action resolved. This is incoherent, as the GM has total authority over both in 5e. The solution, at this point, is singular -- alter the way you expected the story to go and incorporate the outcome of the action and move forward. The OP is hesitant here because they fear doing so will encourage the players to derail the plot in the future (specifically one player?). Prior to this happening, however, and in any future events, the OP can exert better control over action outcomes and limit outcomes that cause severe distortions. For instance, here the OP is having an issue because a PC both showed their face to bystanders and used real PC names while trying to calm witnesses to PC actions that would have severe negative consequences with the authorities that be. Okay. The GM has the player intent well in hand -- convince the bystanders that someone else is to blame. Yet, the GM has also decided this is an automatic failure based on face-showing and name-saying. They could have decided it was uncertain, negotiated or fixed by fiat a check and difficulty, and followed the dice. On a failure, you're in the same place, and consequences exist, but at least the player had knowledge that consequences were on the line and a chance to come up with an approach or use a resource to better achieve their goal.

I agree with this, as far as the actionable advice, anyway. It's probably going to be difficult to get the party back onto the written adventure's path, but there's the possibility of interesting stuff if the OP is willing to write and run it. One can argue this is the weakness of published adventure paths, and I wouldn't disagree.
 

As I said, I don't as a rule run or plan so granularly as that. When I say "I know where it is" I mean in a more narrative sense--they need to go to the captain to get it. I might decide whether he keeps it in his house or on his ship, but I'm not going to decide whether it's in his daughter's hope chest or n his duffel or anything so specific until/unless I need to narrate the PCs finding it. I think part of the problem we're having communicating here is that to an extent this isn't a meaningful question in my games.
I don't feel the force of the distinctions you're drawing here.

The captain's trunk and his daughter's hope chest are just placeholders I came up with to make a point. I could equally have said, as I've also been doing, Place X and Place Y. Or I could say the widget is in the captain's house and the players look for the widget on the captain's ship. Or I could say that the widget is in the possession of the captain (ship, house, trunk, who knows?) and the players look for the widget in the cathedral's baptismal font.

My point is that, in 5e D&D as canonically run, the players cannot establish the stakes of we look for the widget in the font. All they can do is find out what the GM says in response. If the GM answers A retributive angel materialises in anger well I guess that's the GM's prerogative. But I would find it poor GMing to (i) do that and then (ii) be surprised that combat started.

The absence of mechanics for the players to establish things in-fiction doesn't mean they're powerless in the face of The Almighty DM, either.
You are the one who has introduced the notion of powerlessness. I have set out, in multiple posts, the power they have: namely, they can ask the GM to share with them what s/he knows to be the case about the fiction. I say ask deliberately because they can't oblige because it always open for the GM to call for a check, and if it fails to then refrain from sharing (or perhaps to say something that is actually not true about the fiction, eg if s/he decides that a failed roll means the PCs misperceive something).

I guess it seems to me that sometimes when you (and maybe @pemerton ) talk about "DM-decides play" you mean the DM is deciding on the story elements, not just the resolution of character actions.
I don't quite know what contrast you're drawing here.

I would think of a "story element" as (say) the book or other widget, the font, the trunk, the hope chest, the ship, the captain, the daughter, the PCS, etc. The impression I get from your accounts of your play is that you as GM largely control the introduction of these into the shared fiction - with the PCs as an exception.

It is possible to have the introduction of story elements connected to action resolution. For instance, in Apocalypse World if the player succeeds on a check to have his/her PC read a charged situation then s/he can requre the GM to tell her which enemy in the situation is the biggest threat. This obliges the GM to introdcue a new element into the fiction - namely, one which explains why that enemy is so dangerous. Pages 110-11 of the AW rulebook also tell the GM how s/he should approach this:

Of course the real reason why you choose a move [ie introduce a new element or consequence into the fiction] exists in the real world. Somebody has her character go someplace new, somebody misses a roll, somebody hits a roll that calls for you to answer, everybody’s looking to you to say something, so you choose a move to make. Real-world reasons. However, misdirect: pretend that you’re making your move for reasons entirely within the game’s fiction instead.​

This is an example of the GM being obliged to adjudicate the action in a fashion that sets the stakes by reference to the player's concerns (who is the most dangerous enemy here?) and which obliges the GM to manage the unfolding shared fiction in such a way that the player's concern is a key part of it - that is, if the check succeeds then the GM has to introduce an element into the fiction that directly responds to and brings to life within the shared fiction the player's concern.

In this sort of RPG, the player's have more responsibility for what happens in the fiction. Eg if a player declares and succeeds in an action to learn who is the bigget threat, s/he can hardly complain if the GM starts telling her about the heavily armed bodyguards!
 

Taking your examples at face value, that is not very much.

Let's suppose that the GM has decided that the widget is at place X. Then if the players can bring it about that their PCs are at place X - which itself is a whole lot of action resolution that might be resolved via the same methods we're discussing - they might be able to get the GM to answer the question, to which only s/he has the answer, whether or not the widget is at X.

In this way of playing, the GM is the one with the (much) greater control over what occurs in the fiction.

The only thing/s I have control of are things the PCs aren't interacting with, and I have more control over things they haven't interacted with yet than over things they have.

I'm not entirely sure what you're saying here.

On the one hand, you seem to be saying that if the players want to find the widget and sincerely look for it in some place (like the captain's daughter's hope chest) then they'll find it. Or they won't. Because as a GM, while you're not specific, you do think these things through during your prep and you might decide that the captain does not have the widget, and nor does his daughter, or they do have it but somewhere else.

I'm not getting a clear sense of how all this is playing, but to me it does seem to reinforce that the players can't, themselves, establish very much.

In practice, I'm far more likely to establish where the widget isn't than where it is, and it's possible hsading to likely that things will arise in play that change my thinking at least about how the PCs can find the widget.

What I'm saying is that if the GM is the principal, or only, participant who can establish what signifcant things happens in the fiction (like whether or not the widget is at place X), then s/he has a big responsibility. If the players's PCs end up at place Z, and the players have them look for the widget there, it is on the GM that they fail to find it. And it's on the GM to establish whatever consequence of failure follows from that.

I feel as though the significant things that happen in the fiction are the things the PCs do. What I do as a DM is to establish the in-fiction framework in which the PCs do those significant things. If the PCs end up at Place Z looking for a widget because someone lied to them and the PCs believed it, that seems like a consequence of play and not necessarily something entirely in the DM's control. It seems reasonable to me that whatever the consequences would be of not finding the widget where they expected to find it would be established in-fiction before the PCs searched.

If the GM decides that bodyguards turn up, s/he is practically asking for a rumble! Especially in a RPG, like D&D 5e, where the one clear exception to this GM-driven approch to deciding what happens is the combat resolution system.

If the GM doesn't want the fighting, don't introduce the bodyguards. There are very many other things that can happen when someone looks in place Z for a widget that is not there.

On some level this is probably right, given that D&D is so combat-oriented, but I think the players/characters have some blame to shoulder, as well.
 

Into the Woods

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