And, that's cool. But, I question the location at which you've cited agency. Simply, if deciding is the location of the agency, then how do downstream things have the ability to negate it? If I decide to swim the river, you're saying that's where agency happens. But, you also say that if the fictional state doesn't change because of that decision and intervening action declaration to operationalize it, then agency isn't involved. I don't understand how I have agency at the moment of decision but then lose it if the follow-on action declaration is resolved in a way that doesn't change the fiction. Doesn't it seem that the actual action here, the real deciding point, is if the fiction changes?
Sticking with the river example, if you'll allow a slight modification: There's a McGuffin that you have come to believe is on the other side of the river; whether this is a conclusion you've drawn as a player or information you've obtained through other in-character actions doesn't seem super-relevant (though I'm not committed to its irrelevance). If the GM has decided, for whatever reason--this is a decision that can be made with good intentions--that you'll find the McGuffin whether or not you swim across the river, you haven't really changed the state of the fiction, so you haven't really exerted agency. If the GM decides after you fail to swim across the river that the McGuffin is on the side of the river you're on, the agency you exerted in the decision to swim across the river has been negated. There might be another way to find the McGuffin, but doing so requires the state of the fiction to change more, in different ways. I don't mind there being multiple paths to the McGuffin, but any path should require actual decisions and actual fiction-changes; and if there is an action resolution that fails--or if the player or character choose a path that doesn't lead to the McGuffin (as in, it goes away from where it has been established the McGuffin is)--that should matter.
I'm not trying to harp on your point, I'm trying to understand because it doesn't flow for me. I don't see how a downstream effect can render agency moot if it resides in the act of deciding. Oh, and then there's the question of if I change my mind after deciding and decide something else, do I double my agency (not a serious question, attempted joke)?
I get the joke, and I understand my viewpoint on this is ... strange. I quit a Call of Cthulhu campaign when we (the PCs) screwed up and the world didn't end, because it felt as though we hadn't been playing for any stakes, ever, so in spite of all the eldritch monstrosities it didn't matter; and that was worse than the world ending. That left enough of a bad taste in my mouth that I haven't wanted to play Call of Cthulhu since.
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