Extrapolation. Its been a problem that has been observed in edition changeover in the D&D sphere twice running, then dropping away, and the same pattern seems present in the PF2e APs. You're not required to find it compelling, but it seems at least as good an explanation as the one you're suggesting.
Given the cause of the problems previously is not exactly a state secret, suggesting its a common pattern and could be a cause now does not seem exactly a massive reach, since in each case we're talking editions of a game where the game play changed in some serious ways while still showing a continuity of system. This has been true in the transition from AD&D2 to D&D3e, D&D3e to D&D4e, and PF1e to PF2e to a degree that is rarely the case in game edition changeovers (and when it is is often on games that don't do much adventure support anyway).
No it isn't. It's unscientific guesswork.
One theory is based on the particulars of the edition, one isn't.
Except, as I noted, your analysis does not seem to be matching the data from the field.
No, you don't get to characterize anecdotes as "data in the field".
It's a huge stretch to interpret people's experiences as "moderate encounters are noticeably easier on the players in AoE than in AoA or EC", which is what you are effectively saying.
It could just as well be that you're listening to a particular voice which went into the first AP as naive beginners but into the third AP as hardened veterans. That's just more useless speculation of course, but my point that such a "data point" would be irrelevant to assess the veracity of my main claim "a 5E player new to PF2 will have a quite rude awakening, and that this is probably caused by the inflexible CRB guidelines".
So far you haven't taken a single step closer to actually discussing the specifics of Pathfinder 2. It appears just as likely you have actually analyzed the game as just putting your finger up in the air.
Not the reports back I've heard on the subject. Every time I've seen someone talk about problems with APs for PF2e, they've made a clear distinction between the difficulty of Age of Ashes and Extinction Curse and the later APs.
I see no distinct difference in the way encounters are built.
I could ask you to show what you're basing this on, but since I know you are just grasping random voices from the wind, I won't.
See above. A rather large number of people seem to disagree with you in practice. So what's your explanation there?
I'll discuss that with them, not you, thank you very much.
Again, because you're operating on a premise I am not convinced of. I've explained above and previously why.
No you haven't. You keep repeating you have explained, but I keep seeing nothing but hopes and guesses.
If you want to explain why the trendline is people having trouble with the first two APs and not the later ones, I'll listen, but until you do you're making a claim (the one I respond to above) I do not accept.
I certainly don't need your acceptance.
I have provided observations regarding the fundamental nature of the encounter guidelines, specifically how they do not make any special provisions for high or low levels at all despite everything suggesting that the relative power balance between heroes and monsters not staying the same.
If you want to stop responding to my posts, you can do so at any time. I'm not obliged to do so simply because you find my responses annoying.
Annoying? Should your efforts only be a simple attempt to troll me, then
please do say so, and I'll
gladly give you the last word! At the moment I am assuming your continued participation is an indication that you remain willing to be convinced.