This is kind a fundamental problem with this subthread. Some of us have seen plenty. And there's no good way to prove what's the more typical case. And without that its hard to say which position is more reasonable.
The problem is that Hussar's position (not @ ing him because he said he's out and that'd be rude) was that he had seen nothing else, and he himself ran D&D that way (this last bit was confusing, because he also suggested later it was the wrong way to run D&D... so...?!).
Say I've played with 12 D&D DMs, it's probably more but let's use that number, for me, 2 were catastrophist DMs, 1 a guy said the DM was like that, and he totally wasn't. The rest definitely didn't do "instant catastrophe" on failed rolls. Often failed rolls just lead to more attempts and maybe the situation worsening or improving based on that. D&D is, for better or worse, pretty free-form about skills.
Any, 2/12 for me. I guess if I'd been unlucky and only played in those groups, I might have the same idea re: all groups being like that.
But I get the impression that a lot of people have played with
more DMs than this and I feel like the more DMs you've played with, the less likely it is you could get this impression that D&D was always bizarrely catastrophist, like where a failed disguise check of some kind means people instantly freak out and sound alarms and stuff. Or where a stealth check means the same. Does a failed Persuade check mean you're instantly thrown out of the prince's party? I'm just really skeptical about this.
Even if say 50% of D&D groups were catastrophist to the extreme levels described here, you'd be unlucky to not see one that was otherwise. if you played in more than a few.
What I'm curious about is when this alleged Success With Complications or Fail Forward revolution came online.
I've seen fail forward design discussed a lot going back into the '00s. Success with complications I didn't see get big until PtbA games got really big, so more recently, but I haven't played a single D&D game which uses Success with complications (and I don't think it's a great idea for D&D).